First Poll Released For November General Election

Carroll Strategies released the first poll for the November general election.

https://www.kob.com/politics-news/poll-lujan-grisham-leads-pearce-in-race-for-governor/4956518/?cat=500

According to Tom Carroll, the president of the company, 1,199 people were polled.

The reported margin of error is 2.8 percent.

New Mexico Congressional District 1

The Carroll poll proclaims a close race for New Mexico’s First Congressional District between Democrat Deb Haaland and Republican Janice Arnold-Jones.

According to the poll, Debra Haaland polled at 47 percent and Arnold-Jones polled at 42.7 percent with 420 people polled of likely voters.

The New Mexico Governor’s Race:

Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham – 50.5%
Republican Steve Pearce – 42.1%
Libertarian Bob Walsh – 3.1%
Undecided – 4.3%

U.S. Senate:

Democrat Martin Heinrich – 49.8%
Republican Mick Rich – 39.3%
Libertarian Aubrey Dunn – 5.3%
Undecided – 5.7%

U.S. Congress CD 1:

Democrat Debra Haaland – 47%
Republican Janice Arnold-Jones – 42.7%
Libertarian Lloyd Princeton – 3.6%
Undecided – 6.7%

U.S. Congress CD 2:

Democrat Xochitl Torres Small – 34.7%
Republican Yvette Harrell – 48.5%
Undecided – 16.8%

U.S. Congress CD 3:

Democrat Ben Ray Lujan – 58%
Republcan Jerald Steve McFall – 30%
Libertarian Christopher Mannin – 4.7%
Undecided – 7.2%

COMMENTARY

Frankly, this poll is way too premature to be much use given the fact the summer has not officially started.

Although Debra Haaland at this point has 4.3% advantage over Janis Arnold-Jones, what is going to make a real difference is who has the ability to raise the millions to run an effective campaign.

The First Congressional District leans heavily Democratic and considered safe Democratic seat.

Chances are extremely likely that Debra Haaland, as the first Native American, Female Progressive that would ever be elected to the US Congress, she no doubt will get significant help from national interests and progressive organizations such as Emily’s list that contributed up to $200,000 to run ads against Damon Martinez in the last two weeks of the primary.

Janis Arnold-Jones I suspect will be left to fend for herself by the Republican National Committee that will be more concerned about retaining their majority in the US House and investing in congressional districts where incumbents are facing stiff reelections.

The only candidate that appears to be running TV commercials at this point is Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham running for Governor.

I suspect Michelle Lujan Grisham is running commercials so early to protect or preserve her overwhelming landslide in the primary, to keep Democrats motivated and offset some of the negative ads that were run against her by Senator Joseph Cervantes and Jeff Apodaca.

The heavy lifting will now begin to start in earnest to raise the millions that will be needed for the general election campaign.

The Governor’s race is somewhat problematic for Mithcell Lujan Grisham when it comes to money for the general election.

Just prior to the primary, federal election reports had Lujan Grisham with a little over $1 million left for the general election while Steve Pearce had close to $2 million.

Steve Pearce is a millionaire in his own right and no doubt will be raising millions from the oil and gas industry.

However, after 8 years of Republican Suzanna Martinez and disastrous Republican policies, Steve Pearce has more than a few major problems to overcome including his strong support and approval of all things Trump and support of the conservative agenda of tax cuts for the rich, repeal of Obama Care, and reduction in social services.

Michelle Lujan Grisham is more than capable of raising sufficient money for the general election seeing as she raised over $3 million to win the primary in a landslide.

The election is in four months away, which is an eternity in politics.

Brace yourself in about two months for one nasty general election race.

For more commentary on Steve Pearce bending over backwards to defend racist Trump see:

http://www.petedinelli.com/2018/01/13/congressman-steve-pearce-breaks-back-bending-over-to-defend-racist-trump/

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About

Pete Dinelli was born and raised in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He is of Italian and Hispanic descent. He is a 1970 graduate of Del Norte High School, a 1974 graduate of Eastern New Mexico University with a Bachelor's Degree in Business Administration and a 1977 graduate of St. Mary's School of Law, San Antonio, Texas. Pete has a 40 year history of community involvement and service as an elected and appointed official and as a practicing attorney in Albuquerque. Pete and his wife Betty Case Dinelli have been married since 1984 and they have two adult sons, Mark, who is an attorney and George, who is an Emergency Medical Technician (EMT). Pete has been a licensed New Mexico attorney since 1978. Pete has over 27 years of municipal and state government service. Pete’s service to Albuquerque has been extensive. He has been an elected Albuquerque City Councilor, serving as Vice President. He has served as a Worker’s Compensation Judge with Statewide jurisdiction. Pete has been a prosecutor for 15 years and has served as a Bernalillo County Chief Deputy District Attorney, as an Assistant Attorney General and Assistant District Attorney and as a Deputy City Attorney. For eight years, Pete was employed with the City of Albuquerque both as a Deputy City Attorney and Chief Public Safety Officer overseeing the city departments of police, fire, 911 emergency call center and the emergency operations center. While with the City of Albuquerque Legal Department, Pete served as Director of the Safe City Strike Force and Interim Director of the 911 Emergency Operations Center. Pete’s community involvement includes being a past President of the Albuquerque Kiwanis Club, past President of the Our Lady of Fatima School Board, and Board of Directors of the Albuquerque Museum Foundation.