The New Mexico Republican Party is circulating a poll that claims that there is a statistical tie in the race for Governor between Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham and Republican Steve Pearce with only a 2-point spread.
The poll was conducted by Emerson College Polling which is part of the School of Communication at Emerson College.
Emerson college is located in Boston, Massachusetts, it is a private institution that was founded in 1880 and is considered by some an Ivy League college.
Emerson College Polling has been ranked as the most accurate collegiate pollster by Bloomberg New, and successfully executed multiple polls during the 2016 Presidential Elections, including in wide-ranging states such as OH, NV, and NH.
EMERSON POLL RESULTS
The poll results are 42% for Michelle Lujan Grisham, 40% for Steve Pearce and 18% undecided.
Libertarian candidate Bob Walsh was not included in the Emerson poll as in previous polls in that he dropped out of the race which likely helped Steve Pearce, but not by much.
The Emerson poll was taken on August 17 and 18, 2018 and was of 538 registered voters, not likely voters, and has a margin of error of +/- of 4.6%.
The data was weighted by ethnicity, gender, party affiliation, mode and with very difficult to believe 3rd congressional district polling.
Lujan Grisham leads Pearce as expected in her home New Mexico First Congressional District 48% to 32%.
Pearce leads Lujan-Grisham as expected in his home New Mexico Second Congressional District at 43% to Lujan-Gresham’s 35%.
It was the polling in the Third Congressional District represented by Congressman Ben Ray Lujan that is difficult to rationalize.
In the Northern Third Congressional District, Steve Pearce unexpectantly leads at 46% to Lujan-Grisham at 42%.
Democrats lead on a generic congressional ballot test at 43% to 33% with 20% undecided.
A breakout by district has the generic Democrat in Lujan Gresham’s Congressional District 1 leading 51% to 27%, while in Pearce’s 2nd Congressional District, the Republican is at 39% and the Democrat at 35%, in District 3 Congressional District the generic Democrats have a 45% to 32% edge.
Overall, both Gubernatorial candidates are popular, which is a far cry from what we saw in the Trump-Clinton Presidential race just 2 years ago.
Lujan Grisham has 45% favorable rating and 29% unfavorable rating.
Pearce has a 41% favorable rating and 31% unfavorable rating.
EMERSON POLL NUMBERS ON MARTINEZ, TRUMP AND THE WALL
Outgoing Governor Susana Martinez has a 30% job approval and 47% disapproval rating.
President Trump has a lower job approval in the Land of Enchantment than his national average of 43% to 52%, with a 35% approval and 54% disapproval in New Mexico.
Regarding the Trump’s border wall along Mexico, 38% of those polled favored the US significantly expanding construction of walls along the US-Mexico border, while a majority at 54% said no it should not be expanded.
The boarder wall issue is split along party lines with 72% of Republican agrees with the expanded wall while 76% of Democrats disagree.
Independents said no to the border wall 55% to 36%.
You can read the full Emerson Poll here:
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
Any political consultant should be fired who believes the accuracy of the Emerson Poll, especially when it comes to Northern New Mexico, if they are employed by Michelle Lujan Grisham or Steve Pearce.
The Emerson poll is replete with way too many contradictions so as to call into serious question its accuracy statewide.
Emerson Poll used landlines and on-line panel of voters and did not conduct any live cellphone interviews.
Another problem with the Emerson poll is that it did not call “likely” voters but only called registered voters who say they plan on voting.
A “likely voter” in the political polling business are those who have a demonstrated history of voting in recent state elections.
Conducting cell phone interviews as well as “likely voters” is what Brian Sanderoff with Research and Polling does who has the best track record of any one predicting New Mexico election results.
The Emerson Poll reports that in the Third Congressional District represented by Congressman Ben Ray Lujan has Pearce leading at 46% to Lujan-Grisham at 42%.
The Northern District is by far is the most progressive of all 3 New Mexico Congressional Districts with the highest percentage of Hispanics.
Pearce is campaigning hard in Northern New Mexico for the Hispanic male vote, but when push comes to shove, Lujan Gresham’s northern Hispanic generation roots will command a huge loyalty.
Complicating things for Steve Pearce is how well woman are doing in elections in New Mexico and there is clearly a gender gap with Mitchell Lujan Grisham having an 11%-point lead over Steve Pearce with women at 45% to 36%.
Right Wing Republican and Republican Freedom Caucus member Steve Pearce has as munch in common with voters in Northern New Mexico as President Donald Trump has with President Barack Obama or former President Nelson Mandala of South Africa.
The Emerson Poll breakout by district has the generic Democrat in Northern District 3 with a 45% to 32% edge, a 13% edge which means it is far more likely to vote for Lujan-Grisham than Pearce and by a very big margin.
Another red flag on the credibility of the Emerson Pearce leaning poll is that Republican Governor Susana Martinez has a 47% job disapproval rating.
Martinez will be a lead weight around Pearce’s neck as was Bill Richardson around Diane Dennish’s neck meaning that voters will be more inclined to vote Democrat and for Michelle Lujan Grisham as opposed to Steve Pearce who shares the same political philosophy as Martinez who has been a total disaster as Governor.
Pearce is walking lock step with Trump on the US-Mexican border wall expansion.
The Emerson poll shows a majority of New Mexican’s believing by 54% the US-Mexican border wall should not be expanded.
It is more likely than not that people who oppose building the US-Mexican Border wall will be voting for Michelle Lujan Grisham over Steve Pearce.
On June 18, 2018 Carroll Strategies released the first poll for the November general election.
Although two months old, the Carroll Strategies poll is far more reliable than the Emerson poll.
According to Tom Carroll, the president of the company, 1,199 people were polled as compared to the Emerson poll of 538 registered voters.
The reported margin of error is 2.8 percent.
Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham – 50.5%
Republican Steve Pearce – 42.1%
Libertarian Bob Walsh – 3.1%
Undecided – 4.3%
(NOTE: Libertarian candidate Bob Walsh dropped out after this poll was conducted.)
A Survey USA poll also conducted for KOB-TV June 19-23 had the race 51 to 38 in favor of Lujan Grisham over Pearce.
Both candidates have spent tremendous amounts on TV commercials, but it is still very early.
There are 79 days left until the November 6, 2018, which is a lifetime in politics.
Notwithstanding when you analyze the polls taken thus far, it is more likely than not the Mitchelle Lujan Grisham has a 8% to 10% lead over Steve Pearce and she should win by 55% to 45%.