SANDERS ENDORSES BIDEN
On Monday, April 13, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders endorsed former Vice President Joe Biden for president in no uncertain terms saying:
“We need you in the White House. I will do all that I can to see that that happens, Joe.”
Sanders pledge to Biden to help him defeat President Donald Trump in the general election as they agreed to launch a series of task forces to work jointly on policy matters. The endorsement marks a critical moment for Biden as he seeks to unify and turn his focus toward President Donald Trump. Prior to the endorsement, Biden was reaching out to Sanders supporters telling them he needed them.
Sanders’ quick endorsement of Biden in mid-April, a mere 5 days after he suspended his own campaign, was a stark contrast to the 2016 Democratic race. In 2016, after a brutal primary, Sanders refused to drop out all the way to the convention demanding major concessions from the Democratic Party that he has never been a member of until he runs for President.
After Clinton secured the nomination, Sanders finally endorsed Clinton and held events for her. But the Clinton campaign felt Sanders showed lukewarm support for her. Sanders was not as helpful as he could have been in getting the message out when and where they needed it to defeat Trump. Nationwide, one poll found that more than 1 in 10 people who voted for Sanders in the 2016 primary against Hillary Clinton ended up supporting Trump in the general election.
A mid-March, 2020 poll in Michigan, one of the 5 battleground states that will decide the election, found just 2 of 5 Sanders backers said they would vote Democratic in November, regardless of who became the nominee. Four in five said they’d be dissatisfied with Biden as the Democratic standard-bearer.
There is no doubt that Joe Biden needs the Sanders staunches supporters. It would be damn foolish for him to ignore Sanders supporters. There are 4 big differences that exist now than 4 years ago:
First: Hillary Clinton was viewed as seriously flawed and as a “Corporate Democrat” by the progressives while Biden was very successful as Obama’s Vice President.
Second: It is now very clear from the Mueller Report that Trump was put in office because of Russian interference with our elections and its happening again.
Third: Trump has now been in office for over 3 years, he has shown he is not fit to be President and his racism has become more pronounced.
Fourth: Trump has done more damage to the country than anyone could have possibly imagined. The middle class is shrinking while Trump’s tax cuts for the rich are paid for on the backs of the middle class.
For Sander’s supporters to support or again vote for Trump, or even worse, and not vote at all, would be a betrayal of much if not all what Sanders stands for and the issues he campaigned for and what he wants to accomplish.
NATIONAL POLLS RELEASED
Many still believe that Vice President Joe Biden can not beat Trump in a one to one race. But that was also the same for Bernie Sanders. Recent polls are showing that the race is indeed competitive and the Orange Cheeto is now imploding.
According to 3 national polls release last week, President Donald Trump’s job approval has taken a major hit as a growing number of Americans harbor doubts about his handling of the corona virus crisis.
Congress has not faired that well either. The 3 polls taken by Quinnipiac University Polling, Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Polling and CNN taken in April now show a difference than the Gallup poll taken in March.
MARCH GALLUP POLL
On March 24, a Gallup poll found that 6 in 10 Americans approve of the job Donald Trump was doing to combat the coronavirus crisis, pushing the president’s approval rating to 49%, the highest of his presidency. According to the March Gallup poll, voters were largely giving Trump positive marks for his handling of the pandemic, with 94% of Republicans, 60% of independents, and 27% of Democrats approving of his efforts. That’s higher than his general approval rating among each group. The Gallup poll was conducted from March 13 through March 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.
After the late March spike in Trump’s popularity as the pandemic ravaged the United States, his approval ratings have now fallen back to the mid-40% range, where they were before the huge spikes in cases, deaths and unemployment. As of April 9, there are now 16,000 dead as of April 9, jobless claims across the country with 17 million out of work and with 454,000 confirmed cases of the virus.
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLLING
“As the number of coronavirus cases spreads throughout the country, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, earns the highest approval rating for his handling of the response to the coronavirus … He is closely followed by state governors, but President Trump and Congress don’t fare quite as well on their handling of the response to the coronavirus:
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 78% approve, 7% disapprove;
“Your state’s governor”: 74%approve, 24% disapprove;
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: 59% approve, 17% disapprove;
President Trump: 46% approve, 51% disapprove;
Congress: 44% approve, 46% disapprove.
When it comes to President Trump’s response to the coronavirus, 55% of registered voters say that he has not acted aggressively enough, while 41% say his response has been about right and 2% say he’s been too aggressive.
“In a country gripped by crisis and divided by partisanship, public opinion is united when it comes to Dr. Anthony Fauci. Nearly 8 in 10 voters give him a resounding thumbs up for the job he’s doing responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. That’s not the case for President Trump. More voters disapprove of his response than approve. Separately, they say he hasn’t acted aggressively enough in his response, … ”
A plurality of voters gives the president a failing grade on the way he has communicated information about the coronavirus to the American people:
25% give Trump an A;
17% give him a B;
14% give him a C;
12% give him a D;
31% give him an F.
More than 8 out of 10 registered voters, 85%, say they are either very (50%) or somewhat (35%) concerned they or someone they know will be infected with the coronavirus, a spike of 31%.
Three-quarters of voters say they are either very concerned (39%) or somewhat concerned (36%) that they or someone in their family will need to be hospitalized because of the coronavirus.
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY 2020 PRESIDENTIAL POLL RESULTS
In a head to head matchup between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, Biden beats Trump 49 – 41%.
Republicans go to Trump 91 – 7%, while Democrats go to Biden 91 – 4% and independents favor Biden 44 – 35%.
REUTERS/IPSOS CORE POLITICAL POLL
Following are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 6-7, 2020 on behalf of Thomson Reuters:
The April 8, 2020 Reuters/Ipsos Core Political revealed Americans are increasingly adjusting their lives around the coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic, fewer Americans think that the country is headed in the right direction, and approval on the president’s handling of the pandemic has decreased. Healthcare and the economy continue to be the issues that concern Americans the most.
According to the poll, President Trump’s approval rating has dipped back after a brief bounce. President Trump’s approval rating has returned to 40% among all Americans. Trump’s approval rating continues to fall along party lines. President Trump holds the approval of 86% of Republican registered voters, and just 9% of Democratic registered voters.
American approval of the president on his handling of COVID-19 has dropped six points from last week (48%) to 42%.
For this survey, a sample of 1,116 Americans age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii were interviewed online in English. The sample includes 989 registered voters, 480 Democratic registered voters, 376 Republican registered voters, and 73 independent registered voters.”
CNN commissioned telephone by SSRS, an independent research company. Interviews were conducted from April 3-6, 2020 among a sample of 1,002 respondents. The landline total respondents were 350 and there were 652 cell phone respondents.
The CNN two polls and the poll questions and results are as follows:
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Poll period April 3-6, 2020:
5% No opinion
Poll Period March 4-7, 2020:
4% No opinion
Do you think the federal government has done a good job or a poor job of preventing the spread of novel coronavirus, sometimes referred to as COVID-19, in the U.S.?
Poll conducted from April 3-6, 2020:
41% GOOD JOB
55% POOR JOB
4% NO OPINION
Poll Conducted from March 24-29, 2020:
48% GOOD JOB
47% POOR JOB
5% NO OPINION
Which comes closer to your view about where the U.S. stands in the coronavirus outbreak:
Poll conducted April 3-6, 2020
The worst is behind us: 17%
The worst is yet to come: 80%
No opinion: 3%
REAL CLEAR POLITICS POLL AGGREGATE
Founded in 2000, RealClearPolitics (RCP) is a Chicago based political news and polling data aggregator. It compiles polling data history from as many sources available and then projects plus or minus trends in the polling data. On March 23, Real Clear Politics posted the following:
“Since Super Tuesday, four general election trial heat polls have been released that break down the results by age. Biden, who beats Trump in all four surveys, is the leader among young voters in all of them, usually by blowout margins.
CNN has Biden winning the under-35 vote over Donald Trump, 64% to 33%. For Quinnipiac, it’s 59% to 30%. YouGov and Emerson published data for the under-30 vote. For YouGov, Biden was up 55% to 23%, and in Emerson, it’s 56% to 44%.
How does that compare to the last two presidential elections? Regarding Hillary Clinton’s performance, Biden does generally better. In the 2016 exit poll, she beat Trump 55% to 36% among under-30 voters, and 51% to 41% among voters in their thirties.
When you look at the CNN and Quinnipiac numbers, Biden also appears to be meeting Barack Obama’s 2012 standard—among voters under 30, he beat Mitt Romney 60% to 37%. And even if he’s a little behind Obama’s pace with young voters in the YouGov and Emerson polls, Biden is outperforming Obama with the senior citizen vote. Obama lost the 65-and-over vote by 12 percentage points, while Biden wins with seniors in every March poll except Emerson. And in that one, he only loses by four. In other words, Biden has broader generational appeal than Obama.”
RALLY ROUND THE FLAG
President Donald Trump took to declaring himself a “wartime president”. His appointed Surgeon General also said “This is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment, our 9/11 moment”. Trump knew full well that the wartime references would give him a bump in popularity for his reelection bid. It’s called “rally round the flag” effect.
The rally ’round the flag effect is a concept used in political science and international relations to explain increased short-run popular support for a President of the United States during periods of major crisis or war that threatens the United States. The rally ’round the flag” effect can reduce criticism of governmental policies. It is a political science theory that political scientist John Mueller suggested in 1970 in his a landmark paper called “Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson”.
In times of major crisis, usually in time of war and national threat, the American public usually views a President as the embodiment of national unity, an the president’s popularity goes up and it does not last.
The biggest problem with the “Rally Round The Flag” poll is short term as the crisis subsides. The best example is 9-11 where President George W. Bushes popularity soared to over 90% and he left office with approval ratings in the 30’s.
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
It comes as no surprise to political pundits that Trump’s job approval ratings are on the decline. The 49% approval rating Trump had in March is probably the highest it is going to be as the corona virus crisis continues and the economy goes into a recession or even a depression. Before the pandemic, Trump was relying upon the booming economy to give him a certain reelection victory. The disastrous way Mr. Trump and his administration have been handling the crisis is no doubt a major reason his popularity is going go down and voters are seeing what he is: a pathological liar and totally inept.
Trump’s staunches supporters will no doubt say all the polls were wrong last time, they are wrong now, and that Trump will win again. What the Trump supporters seem to ignore is that Trump must now run on his record of broken promises, irrational behavior and bullying voters will not cut it. Burning down the country is no way to govern.
After over 3 years of constant daily news coverage and twitters from Trump creating crisis, after crisis, after crisis of his own making, even bringing the country close to nuclear war with North Korea, the United States is now faced with a major pandemic revealing a man who is totally incompetent and totally unprepared to be President. The pandemic just may throw this country into a great depression, yet his Republican supporters insist on giving Trump high marks for handling the crisis in all the polls. Sooner rather than later, those Republicans who have lost their jobs or a loved one to the pandemic will come to the realization that the approach Trump wanted to take was to let the disease just “wash over the country” which is what he said early on in the “Situation Room” of the White House.
Trump has an uncanny ability to make things worse with his daily tweeting and self-absorbed, self-center arrogance. Trump has turned his daily news briefings on the virus and what is being done into an airing of grievances and attacking the press instead of useful updates on the public health crisis. He is using the daily briefing as a substitute for his rally’s that he cannot have because of the pandemic.
His supporters look upon him as the messiah that is cult like. As the pandemic worsens, which is most assured, the odds are high that he will only complicate the crisis, making things MUCH worse and create another crisis within a crisis. More people will die because of his mishandling of it.
Trump will make things worse because he just cannot help it. Our Bone Spur Commander in Chief has a version of the “Midas Touch” except that everything he touches turns to crap.