As of October 11, there have now been a total of 5 polls conducted by the news media in the 2022 race for New Mexico Governor. All 5 polls have Democrat Governor Lujan Grisham leading Republican Mark Ronchetti by as low of only 3% and as high as 16%. This blog article reports on all 5 polls.
SECOND “4 Investigates” Poll
KOB 4 NEWS 4 REPORT
On October 9, KOB 4 released its second poll it commissioned with Survey USA. Polling of 570 likely voters showed Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham with a 16-point lead over Republican Mark Ronchetti. The results of the poll are:
Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham: 53%
Republican Mark Ronchetti: 37%
Libertarian Karen Bedonie: 3%
Undecided: 7%
According to the KOB 4 Survey USA poll likely voters are strongly motivated by abortion. 17% said it’s the issue that will most influence their vote with Governor MLG polling at 86% among that crowd. 22% chose the economy as most-influential issue, but ahead of all others
76% percent of likely voters told SurveyUSA that abortion will be at least somewhat of a factor in their vote. While support for MLG fades, Ronchetti’s increases depending on how passionate voters say they are about abortion, but the Governor still holds a 35% point lead in this group, again with 3 out of every 4 likely voters polled.
New Mexico opinions on abortion seem similar to national numbers. Survey USA asked which position on abortion was closest to the ones held by respondents to the poll.
31% said it should only be allowed to save the mother’s life or in cases of abortion or incest
20% said it should be allowed up to 15 weeks and banned after, which the same exceptions
7% said it should be banned in the third trimester of a pregnancy
27% said there should be no restrictions
5% were unsure (a percentage that likely includes those who favor a total ban)
Ronchetti performs strongest among voters who are concerned about inflation and the economy. Inflation-focused voters prefer Republican Ronchetti by 12%. Voters who say the economy is their biggest issue favor Ronchetti by 18%.
NM POLITICAL REPORT “PUBLIC POLICY POLLING” POLL
On October 9, the on-line news agency NM Political Report released a poll it commissioned with Public Policy Polling (PPP). The poll of 806 voters was conducted by Public Policy Polling on October 6 and 7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points. In the poll, Incumbent Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham continues to lead the gubernatorial race, with the support of just under 50 percent of likely voters.
The results of the PPP poll are:
Democrat Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham: 48%
Republican Mark Ronchetti: 40%
Libertarian Karen Bedonie: 7%
According to NM Political Report, this is an increase in the gap between the two top contenders from a June NM Political Report poll which showed Lujan Grisham leading with 45% of supporters to 42% for Ronchetti and 9% for Bedonie.
The poll is slightly higher than the average of polls at Real Clear Politics which shows Lujan Grisham leading by 6.7 points.
According to NM Political Report:
“As has been the case in previous polls, Lujan Grisham’s lead is buoyed by support among women. Of those polled, 52% of women say they will vote for Lujan Grisham, while 36% say they will vote for Ronchetti and 6% for Bedonie. Men very slightly favor Ronchetti, 43% to 42% over Lujan Grisham with 8% backing Bedonie.”
A breakdown of the PPP poll is as follows
Lujan Grisham secured 81% of Democrats while 14% of Democrats support Ronchetti and 1 percent support Bedonie.
Ronchetti secured 74% of Republicans, Lujan Grisham secures the support of 11% of Republicans and Bedonie secures 9 percent or Republicans.
Ronchetti has a slight lead among other parties and independents, with 39% percent backing him , to 36% for Lujan Grisham and 14% for Bedonie.
Lujan Grisham also continues leading among Hispanic or Latino voters, 55% who support her, while 31% support Ronchetti and 10% support Bedonie.
Ronchetti leads among white voters, with 47% of support compared to 43% for Lujan Grisham and 5% for Bedonie.
Among other races and ethnicities, Lujan Grisham leads 49% to 27% over Ronchetti, with 7% supporting Bedonie.
The link to the quoted news source is here:
KRQE NEWS 13 EMERSON POLL
On September 15, KRQE NEWS 13 published the latest of 3 polls in the New Mexico Governor’s race. KRQE commissioned Emerson College Polling on the New Mexico Governor’s race as well as issues facing the state. The results of the poll in the Governor’s race is as follows:
Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham 48%
Republican Mark Ronchetti: 43%
Undecided: 5.2%
FIRST KOB “4 Investigates” Poll
On September 14, KOB Channel 4 published a “4 Investigates Poll” on the New Mexico Governor’s race it commissioned with Survey USA. The results of the poll in the Governor’s race revealed that Democrat Governor Michell Lujan Grisham has now busted out a double-digit lead over Republican Mark Ronchetti. The results of the poll reported are:
Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham: 48%
Republican Mark Ronchetti: 36%
Libertarian Karen Bedonie: 5%
Undecided: 11%
The link to the KOB 4 report is here:
https://www.kob.com/news/top-news/4-investigates-poll-mlg-has-12-point-advantage-over-ronchetti/
ABQ JOURNAL POLL
On Sunday, August 28, the Albuquerque Journal released it first poll in the 2022 Governor’s race between Democrat Incumbent Michell Lujan Grisham and Republican TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti. The poll was conducted by Research and Polling which for decades has done all political polling for the Journal and with polling firm considered the gold standard in New Mexico political polling because of its consistent accuracy.
RESULTS OF JOURNAL POLL
The poll asked the question “If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for? “ The poll results reported were:
Democrat Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham: 47%
Republican Mark Ronchetti: 40%
Libertarian Karen Bedoni: 5%
UNDECIDED: 8%
Abortion is considered the defining issue in the governor’s race. On August 29, the Albuquerque Journal released it poll on the issue.
The poll asked the question “WHICH COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW ON ABORTION” The results were as follows:
It should always be legal: 35%
It should be legal with some limitations: 22%
It should be illegal except for rape, incest, or to save the mother’s life: 25%
It should always be illegal: 12%
Don’t know: 2%
None of these/won’t say: 4%
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
Averaging out all 5 of the polls reflects that Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham polling average is 48.8% compared to Ronchetti’s 39.2%. Ronchetti has yet to surpass 40% to 43% in any of the polling which is essentially the Republican base in New Mexico. Lujan Grisham has busted the magic 50% plus one in only 1 poll but that is likely changed during the last month of the campaign in that Ronchetti has stalled and the momentum is clearly on her side. The Albuquerque Journal is scheduled for release on October 30 its final poll and it will likely predict Governor Lujan Grisham winning with the margin being the only mystery.
Governor Lujan Grisham has led in the polls throughout the race and she has busted out a two-digit lead over Ronchetti in the Survey USA poll poll twice. There are only 30 days left before the November 8 general election and early voting started on October 11. The last live TV debate will be on Wednesday October 12 on Channel 7 and anything can happen including missteps by the candidates. Both candidates have hefty amounts of campaign cash that make it certain that the negative ads will continue but will not likely have a major impact on the final outcome.