The 2022 congressional races are the first to be held with newly drawn geographical districts after the New Mexico legislature redistricted all 3 congressional districts this year based on the United States census data.
On October 31, the Albuquerque Journal published its first and only poll results in the states 3 congressional races. The poll in the 2nd Congressional District between Republican Incumbent Yvette Herrell and Democrat Gabe Vasquez no doubt came as a very big shock to the political establishment in both the Democrat and Republican party establishments.
The results of the poll in the 1st Congressional District between incumbent Democrat Melanie Stansbury and Republican Michelle Garcia Homes and in the 3rd Congressional District between incumbent Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez and Republican Alexis Martinez Johnson reveals that both incumbent democrats have very comfortable margins and they will likely be re elected.
2nd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICRT: VASQUEZ LEADS HERRELL BY 2%
A Journal poll found that Democratic challenger Gabe Vasquez has a 2% lead over incumbent Republican Yvette Herrell. The polling gives Vasquez 47% of likely voters supporting him while 45% favor Herrell with 8% of voters are undecided. The 2nd Congressional District for decades has been dominated by very conservative southern New Mexico and has elected Republicans and was represented Republican Party State Chair Steve Pierce who while in congress was a member of the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus. After redistricting, the 2nd Congressional District now includes parts of Albuquerque’s West Side and South Valley, which are decisively more progressive, and with progressive Las Cruces, the district now leans Democrat.
Notwithstanding the closeness of the poll, and the fact that it falls within the polls 4.8% margin of error, Democrat Vasquez clearly has the momentum on his side against a Republican incumbent. With a full 13 days until the election, Vasquez could easily score a major upset over Harrell.
According to the Journal poll Vasquez has opened up a large lead among Hispanics in the district. He has the support of 61% of Hispanics while Harrell has 29% of Hispanics who say they will vote for her. Harrell has the support of 60% of Anglos in the district.
The 2nd Congressional race has by far been the most expensive of the three House races. Herrell has raised over $4 million and Vasquez over $3.2 million. Both Vasquez and Harrell have been hammering each other relentlessly airing television ads attacking the other and both claiming that each other is too extreme for the District.
The 2nd Congressional District does lean conservative which is the reason Harrell is saying Vasquez is an extreme progressive Democrat alleging he would such down the oil ang gas industry in New Mexico, thousands would lose their jobs and that he would defund the police. Vasquez has portrayed Harrell as an extreme right wing Republican who has denied the September 11 terrorist attack, refused to vote to certify Joe Biden as President and who has sponsored legislation to nationally criminalize all abortions.
DATA DOWN LOAD FOR 2nd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
GENDER: According to the Journal poll, Vasquez has the support of 46% of males who said they will vote while Harrell has 45%. Vasquez has 48% of females who said they will vote while Harrell has 44%.
ETHNICITY: When it comes to ethnicity, Vasquez has the support of a whopping 61% of Hispanics which is more than double of Harrell’s 29%. Harrell has the support of 60% of the Anglo vote while Vasquez has 34% of the Anglo vote.
POLITICAL PARTY: Both candidates have the overwhelming support of their own political parties. Democrat Vasquez has 86% support of Democrats while Republican Harrell has 10% support of Democrats. Republican Harrell has 89% support of Republicans while Democrat Vasquez has 5% support of Republicans. Independents support Republican Harrell with 46% to Democrat Vasquez with 31%.
1st CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICRT: STANSBURY LEADS GARCIA HOLMES BY 6%,
1st Congressional Democrat US Representative Melanie Stansbury has a 48% to 42% lead over Republican candidate Michelle Garcia Holmes. The 6% gap between Stansbury and Garcia Holmes is much narrower than the most recent elections. Garcia Holmes lost the 2020 race to former Representative Deb Haaland by 16% points. In 2021, Deb Halland resigned from congress and was appointed United State Interior Secretary by President Joe Biden. Stansbury’s strongest support comes from Hispanics, who favor her 56% to 37%. She also has a wide lead among voters with a graduate degree with 61% of those voters supporting her.
DATA DOWN LOAD FOR 1st CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
GENDER: According to the Journal poll, Stansbury has the support of 45% of males who said they will vote while Garcia Holmes has 48%. Stansbury has 51% of females who said they will vote while Garcia Holmes has 37%.
ETHNICITY: When it comes to ethnicity, Stansbury has the support of 56% of Hispanics while Garcia Holmes 37% of Hispanics. Garcia Holmes has the support of 46% of the Anglo vote while Stanbury has 45% of the Anglo vote.
POLITICAL PARTY: Both candidates have the overwhelming support of their own political parties. Democrat Stansbury has 85% support of Democrats while Republican Garcia Holmes has 7% support of Democrats. Republican Gracia Holmes has 87% support of Republicans while Democrat Stansbury has 5% support of Republicans. Independents support Republican Garcia Holmes with 42% compared to Democrat Stansbury with 39%.
The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 27. The poll is based on a scientific, sample of 410 cast ballots in the 2018 an/or the 2020general election and who said they are likely to vote in the 2022 election. The poll sample also includes people who have been registered to vote since 2021 and who said they will be votinfg in the upcoming election. All the interviews were done by live, professional interviewers, with multiple callbacks to those who did not initially answer the phone. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8% points.
3rd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICRT: LEDGER FERNANDEZ LEADS MARTINEZ JOHNSON BY 18%
According to the Journal poll 2 st Congressional Democrat US Representative Teresa Leger Fernández has a commanding lead with 53% to 35% advantage over Republican candidate Alexis Martinez Johnson. Although both candidates are Hispanic woman, it is Leger Fernández who has shored up support from women, 61%, and Hispanics, 68%.
DATA DOWN LOAD FOR 1st CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
GENDER: According to the Journal poll, Leger Fernández has the support of 44% of males who said they will vote while Martinez Johnson has 47%. Leger Fernández has 61% of females who said they will vote while Martinez Johnson has 25%.
ETHNICITY: When it comes to ethnicity, Leger Fernández has the support of 68% of Hispanics while Martinez Johnson 24% of Hispanics. Leger Fernández has the support of 46% of the Anglo vote while Martinez Johnson has 42% of the Anglo vote.
POLITICAL PARTY: Both candidates have the overwhelming support of their own political parties. Democrat Leger Fernández has 89% support of Democrats while Republican Martinez Johnson has 2% support of Democrats. Republican Martinez Johnson has 88% support of Republicans while Democrat Leger Fernández has 6% support of Republicans. Independents support Democrat Leger Fernández with 40% compared to Republican Martinez Johnson with 31%.
The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 27. The poll is based on a scientific, sample of 434 cast ballots in the 2018 an/or the 2020 general election and who said they are likely to vote in the 2022 election. The poll sample also includes people who have been registered to vote since 2021 and who said they will be votinfg in the upcoming election. All the interviews were done by live, professional interviewers, with multiple callbacks to those who did not initially answer the phone. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7% points.
The link to the full, unedited Albuquerque Journal article which include graphs is here:
https://www.abqjournal.com/2544863/democrat-has-edge-in-race-for-us-house-seat.html
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
There is no doubt that 2nd Congressional District race between Democrat Gabe Vasquez and Republican Incumbent Yvette Herrell has national implications. The control of the U.S. House will be determined by a handful of congressional seats around the country. As it stands, national polls have Republicans projected to win back the United States House. The 2nd Congressional District just may turn out to be one of the brightest spots for Democrats in the nation come November 8.