On the 2025 Albuquerque Municipal ballot is the race for Mayor with seven candidates running and the 5 odd number city council races in Districts 1, 3, 5, 7 and 9 with 14 candidates running. Albuquerque’s mayoral and city council races elections are technically “nonpartisan” races, meaning party affiliation of the candidates are not listed on the ballot.
EARLY VOTING REPORTED AT ANEMIC 10% WITH DEMOCRATS OUT PACING REPUBLICANS
With early voting set to end Saturday, November 1, the voting trend suggests final turnout levels will likely fall short of the 32% mark from Albuquerque’s last mayoral election in 2021. With less than one week until the November 4 Election day, it has been reported that early voting turnout rates in Albuquerque have been very low.
According to the Bernalillo County Clerk’s Office, only about 9.3% of Albuquerque’s 62,000 registered voters had cast ballots as of October 27. The figure includes both absentee votes and early voting.
According to the clerk’s office, registered Democrats have been voting at a slightly higher rate than Republicans since early voting began on October 7. Roughly 9.5% of registered Democrats in Bernalillo County had cast ballots as of November 27 compared to 8.4% of Republicans. A smaller percentage of independent voters, or those declining to state a political affiliation, had cast a ballot. In other words, more than 55% of the Bernalillo County voters who had cast a ballot entering Monday were registered Democrats even though Democrats make up only about 45% of all registered voters in the county.
Brian Sanderoff, the President of Research and Polling the company that did the Albuquerque Journal poll, said it’s common for Democrats to vote at a higher rate than Republicans during the initial stages of an election. He also said more voters have voted before Election Day than during recent election cycles.
The Journal Poll found 37% of likely voters in Albuquerque voters were undecided about who they planned to vote for in the November 4 local election. According to Sanderoff, the low turnout rates so far in this year’s local election are likely connected to the large number of undecided voters. Sanderoff said mayoral candidates Tim Keller and Alex Uballez will fare better than their rivals among Democratic voters due to their more progressive views.
Sanderoff said that with Democrats so far voting at a higher rate than Republicans in a city in which Democrats far outnumber GOP voters, the trend could make it difficult for a Republican candidate to post an upset victory even if this year’s Election Day turnout ends up narrowing or eliminating the current gap.
The link to the relied upon or quoted news article is here:
https://www.abqjournal.com/election/article_2527b6cd-7419-4d42-b65e-943e07e1a167.html
Sanderoff said this to KOAT-TV about the Mayor’s race:
“There are six solid candidates out there. The voters have a lot of different people to choose from. Some of these candidates are conservative, some liberal, some moderate. So, the voters have a choice. It’s just a matter of the voters researching the candidate of their choice and voting come Election Day.”
“A number of weeks ago, the Journal-KOAT poll showed 37% of the voters undecided. Despite the debates and everything, I still think there are many voters on the fence, and perhaps that’s holding them back a little. We’re still hoping that turnout will increase significantly, and more people will vote by Election Day.”
“A lot of the candidates are now spending the majority of the resources trying to persuade those undecided voters. As the voters hear from the candidates in the closing week, hopefully, more will make up their minds and vote on Election Day. The person least likely to vote is the person who doesn’t have a strong opinion. If you don’t really have a strong candidate preference, then you’re less likely to vote.”
https://www.koat.com/article/albuquerque-mayoral-election-day/69182670
On October 29, Sanderoff was quoted as saying this to “New Mexico Politics With Joe Monahan” about the voter turnout:
Although overall turnout in the municipal election is sluggish, both Democrats and Republicans are turning out at a rate higher than their actual proportion of the registered voter population— and independents are turning out at a much lower rate than their true proportions.
Through Monday, whereas Democrats comprise 45.3% of the county registered voter population, they represent 55.5% of the voting population. Republicans comprise 27.8% of the county registered voter population, and 30.5% of the voting population. Independent voters (D-T-S) comprise 24.9% of the county registered voter population and only 13.3% of the voting population. To look at it another way, through Monday, 10.9% of Democrats have voted and 9.7% of Republicans have voted, while only 4.7% of independents have voted.
ALBUQUERQUE JOURNAL POLL REVISITED
On Sunday, September 28, the Albuquerque Journal published the results of an opinion poll on the 2025 Albuquerque’s Mayor race. The poll was conducted by Albuquerque-based Research & Polling Inc whose President is Brian Sanderoff. Research & Polling Inc is the exclusive polling company for the Albuquerque Journal. For at least the 40 past years, it has polled in New Mexico political races and it is considered the “gold standard” and one of the four top politcal pollsters in the country for is history of accuracy.
Following are the poll results:
- Tim Keller: 29%
- Darren White: 16%
- Alex Uballez: 6%
- Louie Sanchez: 6%
- Mayling Armijo: 1%
- Eddie Varela: 2%
- Daniel Chavez: 1%
- Undecided 37%
- Decline To Say 2%
TOTAL: 100%
POLL BREAKDOWN ACCORDING TO PARTY AFFILIATION
Tim Keller’s total 29% poll number was broken down as being 43% registered Democrat, 8% being registered Republican and 28% being registered Independent.
Darren White’s 16% total poll number was broken down as being 5% registered Democrat, 35% being registered Republican and 9% being registered Independent.
Alex Uballez’s poll number of 6%broke down as 9% Democrat, 1% Republican and 5% registered Independent.
Louie Sanchez’s poll number of 6% broke down as 3% Democrat, 12% Republican and 4 Independent.
The 37% total of the “undecided or don’t know” voters was broken down as consisting of 35% registered Democrat, 36% registered Republican and 47% registered Independent.
Although the Albuquerque Journal Poll found that Mayor Tim Keller has the lead in his bid to win reelection to a third term, the poll found that less than half of city voters approve of the job he’s done over the last seven-plus years.
A total of 47% of voters surveyed expressed disapproval of Keller’s job performance, while 42% approved of the way he has handled being mayor.
The remaining voters were unsure or declined to say.
The link to the quoted or relied upon Albuquerque Journal article is here:
https://www.abqjournal.com/election/article_bf155bf7-2226-486b-ac34-07ca23e0173b.html
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
With only 10% of Albuquerque’s registered voters having early voted by October 27, and with so many undecided voters, it can be said the race for Albuquerque Mayor is still a wide open race and anything could happen on election day.
The September 28 Albuquerque Journal poll is the only poll of any real substance that has been taken in the 2025 Mayors race that has been made public. The Albuquerque Journal will not be taking another poll. One candidate has said the Albuquerque Journal has said it will NOT be endorsing in the 2025 in the Mayor’s race.
Polls are nothing more than a “snapshot” in time reflecting public opinion and all to often become self-fulling prophecies. All too often, polls do a major disservice to candidates, ultimately influencing public opinion and ending candidacies. Low opinion polls for candidates tend to dry up campaign contributions making it impossible for candidates to continue with a campaign. This is what essentially happened to Mayling Armijo securing 1%, Eddie Varela securing 2% and Daniel Chavez securing 1% in the Albuquerque Journal Poll. Daniel Chavez admitted he dropped out of the race because of his poor showing in the Albuquerque Journal poll after spending $100,000 of his own money to gather qualifying nominating signatures.
Confidential sources have confirmed yet another poll has in fact been taken within the last week on the 4 top tier candidates of Keller, White, Sanchez and Uballez, but it’s uncertain if a candidates campaign took the poll or if the poll was done by a measured finance committee. It not at all likely the results of that poll will be released to the public.
Since the Albuquerque Journal poll, the candidates have had only two media sponsored debates, with one between the 4 top contenders and the other between all six candidates. The candidates have had a limited number of joint interactions at business forums and neighborhood associations.
Mayor Keller, Darren White and Louie Sanchez have been the only three who been able to afford to produce commercials with Keller overwhelming hitting the air waves with two commercials, Sanchez with one commercial and White with one commercial. Keller has had the commanding financial advantage of $733,000 in public campaign funds he received after qualifying for public finance and maintaining that advantage. Throughout the campaign his 5 opponents have struggled to raise donations to compete during this year’s election cycle.
More than a few political pundits are now offering their so called “expert opinions” on the final outcome of the race with the election less than a week away. Some are saying that there will be a runoff between Mayor Tim Keller and Darren White. Some are saying there will be a runoff between Mayor Tim Keller and Louie Sanchez, who is now securing Republican support. Others are saying that Alex Uballez will surprise all and make it into the runoff with Keller.
Still others are saying Mayor Keller has run a “flawless” campaign, despite losing his cool and chastising the audience at the Greater Albuquerque Area Realtors (GAAR) forum for believing his opponents “red meat” and telling them not to vote for him. Some political opinion experts are going so far as saying Keller has overcome his 42% disapproval rating and will win outright and that there will be no runoff. Most if not all of the pundits are saying Mayor Keller will come first on November 4. Mayor Keller for his part says there will be a runoff. Albuquerque Journal Political Opinion Columnist Jeff Tucker says Keller will win outright and that after the election, term limits need to be discussed even though the courts decided the issue 30 years ago and ruled term limits are unconstitutional in Albuquerque municipal elections.
The blunt reality is all the so called “political experts” who run their mouths off to politcal gossip columnists are usually giving their “gut analysis” without having any “boots on the ground” . They usually have no accurate gauge for the races, do not know what’s going on within campaigns nor know how many voters are being reached.
Voters need to just ignore all the noise of the campaigns and ignore all the polls, and vote their conscience and make informed decisions. Voters should especially ignore the politcal pundits, critics and gossip columnist who often have never run for office themselves, who have never been the “man in the arena” like Teddy Roosevelt described, and who just run off their mouths trying to be influencers or “king makers.”
Early voting ends on Saturday November 1. Under Albuquerque’s city charter, the two top finishers in the mayor’s race will face off in a run-off election if the top finisher does not receive 50% or more of the votes cast. If it’s necessary, this year’s run-off election will take place on December 9.
In the final analysis, the only poll that counts and that is 100% accurate is the final vote counted on November 4. Please vote!
POSTSCRIPT
DINELLI INTERVIEW BY PAUL GESSING OF RIO GRANDE FOUNDATION
On October 15, 2025, Pete Dinelli was interviewed for one hour by Paul Gessing with the Rio Grande Foundation on his weekly podcast program known as “Tipping Points New Mexico”. The Rio Grande Foundation is an economic policy “think tank” located in Albuquerque, New Mexico. The Foundation is affiliated with the U.S. nationwide State Policy Network. Paul Gessing became president in 2006.
https://riograndefoundation.org/about/
The topics of discussion for the pod cast were the 2025 Mayor’s race and the biggest issues in the race. The podcast started by first discussing what I believe to be the 4 major issues in the 2025 Mayor’s race: crime, the homeless crisis, affordable housing and the city’s immigrant policies. We then discussed the mayor’s race and my assessment of the candidates and if there will be a runoff. We went on to discuss the 5 City Council races in general terms.
The link to watch the video is here:
https://errorsofenchantment.com/episode-754-albuquerque-elections-and-government-with-pete-dinelli/
The link to listen to the audio is here:
https://tippingpointnm.com/754-albuquerque-elections-and-government-pete-dinelli/
The link to watch the interview on FACEBOOK is here: