After a full week and the dust settling somewhat since the November 4 2025 vote in Albuquerque Mayors, it’s becoming painfully obvious that the runoff between two term Incumbent Mayor Tim Keller and former two term Bernalillo County Sherriff Darren White will probably be the most negative runoff in the city’s history.
None of the seven candidates on the ballot for mayor reached the 50% needed to win and prevent a runoff election between the top two candidates. The final vote reported is as follows:
- Tim Keller 47,902 votes (35.69%)
- Darren White 41,131 votes (30.65%)
- Alexander Uballez 25,213 votes (18.79%).
- Louie Sanchez: 8,645 (6.44%)
- Mayling Armijo: 7,672 (5.72%)
- Eddie Varela: 2,280 (1.70%)
- Daniel Chavez: 1,660 (2.0%)
(Chavez dropped out of the race before Election Day but still appeared on the ballot,)
According to unofficial election results nearly 135,000 votes were cast in this year’s Albuquerque mayoral race, or about 37.1% of registered voters in the city. That surpassed the 32% turnout mark from the city’s last mayoral election in 2021.
ABQ JOURNAL POLL RECALLED
On Sunday, September 28, just 38 days before the November 4 election, the Albuquerque Journal published its opinion poll on the Albuquerque’s Mayor race. Following are the poll results:
- Tim Keller: 29%
- Darren White: 16%
- Alex Uballez: 6%
- Louie Sanchez: 6%
- Mayling Armijo: 1%
- Eddie Varela: 2%
- Daniel Chavez: 1%
- Undecided 37%
- Decline To Say 2%
TOTAL: 100%
https://www.abqjournal.com/election/article_bf155bf7-2226-486b-ac34-07ca23e0173b.html
JOURNAL POLL BREAKDOWN ACCORDING TO PARTY AFFILIATION
Tim Keller’s total 29% Journal poll number was broken down as being 43% registered Democrat, 8% being registered Republican and 28% being registered Independent.
Darren White’s 16% total Journal poll number was broken down as being 5% registered Democrat, 35% being registered Republican and 9% being registered Independent.
Alex Uballez’s Journal poll number of 6% broke down as 9% Democrat, 1% Republican and 5% registered Independent. Uballez positioned himself as a progressive alternative to Keller and received more support from younger voters than did White. But Uballez’s support withered among voters age 50 and older, who tend to be more reliable voters.
Louie Sanchez’s Journal poll number of 6% broke down as 3% Democrat, 12% Republican and 4% Independent.
The 37% total of the “undecided or don’t know” voters was broken down evenly as consisting of 35% registered Democrat, 36% registered Republican and 47% registered Independent.
Although the Albuquerque Journal Poll found that Mayor Tim Keller had the lead in his bid to win reelection to a third term, the poll found that less than half of city voters approve of the job he’s done over the last seven-plus years. A total of 47% of voters surveyed expressed disapproval of Keller’s job performance, while 42% approved of the way he has handled being mayor. The remaining voters were unsure or declined to say.
The link to the quoted or relied upon Albuquerque Journal article is here:
https://www.abqjournal.com/election/article_bf155bf7-2226-486b-ac34-07ca23e0173b.html
KELLER AND WHITE EXCHANGE SALVOS
After finishing as the top two candidates, Mayor Tim Keller and challenger Darren White wasted no time going after each other and each other’s records signaling a very contentious runoff race.
Darren White said this:
“Two-thirds of the voters last night rejected an eight-year incumbent, and that’s because crime and homelessness are out of control. … We have received overwhelming support … and we’re going to be on a campaign that will provide us with resources to go toe-to-toe with the mayor. … It’s not just me. It’s every single person in the city who wants change and who knows we deserve better, that’s who I’m going to have in my corner fighting Mayor Tim Keller.”
White said his campaign will be competitive with Keller when it comes to fundraising in the run-up to the December 9 runoff election.
Mayor Keller for his part likened the start of the runoff election to “halftime” of this year’s election cycle, saying he was ready for a strong second-half showing. Keller said this:
“Now it’s a two-person race, and the differences could not be more clear. … Albuquerque cannot afford a Trump-aligned mayor who would take us backward across the board. … He has a record and I have a record. And the good news is, it’s really clear for voters what you want. There are no unknowns. … We’re actually ready for a one-on-one match up.”
Mayor Keller will receive an additional $377,973 in public campaign financing after being the only candidate to qualify for public financing and Mayor Keller has already been given $755,000 in public financing.
Keller’s campaign manager said Keller would draw a “sharp contrast” with White on issues including the city’s stance on immigration.
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
It is important to compare the final results of the November 4 vote to the Albuquerque Journal Poll to gauge the impact of the 38 days of campaigning and the money spent.
The day after Election Day, Darren White was likely shocked by the unofficial election returns that showed him just 5% points behind Mayor Keller with 36% of the votes cast for Mayor Keller and 31% for Darren White. White almost doubled his 16% in the Journal Poll garnering 31% of the final vote on November 4.
Mayor Tim Keller was likely shocked that after spending upwards of $755,000 of his public finance money over 38 days since the Journal poll, he only improved his poll number by 6.69% going from 29% in the Journal poll to 35.69% on November 4. The 47% disapproval of Mayor Keller’s performance by voters surveyed in the Journal poll was an apparent drag on Keller’s ability to attract undecided voters.
It was Alexander Uballez that had the most impressive final vote going from a meager 6% in the Albuquerque Journal poll to more than tripling his final vote and garnering 19% of the vote on November 4. Alexander Uballez was also a drag on Keller’s progressive Democratic vote.
It is clear that the 37% of the undecided in the Albuquerque Journal poll first broke to Uballez who tripled his number from 6% in the Journal poll to 19% in the November 4 vote. The undecided vote also broke to White taking him from 16% in the Journal poll to 31% on November 4. Both Uballez and White made significant gains despite being seriously underfunded and outspent by Keller who was the only candidate who qualified for public finance.
THE UBALLEZ FACTOR
Alexander Uballez mounted the fiercest challenge of the other four candidates receiving 24,718 votes or 19%. Uballez positioned himself as a more progressive alternative to Keller saying that Keller was not doing enough to deal with protecting undocumented immigrants and that Keller has been a failure dealing with the homeless in a compassionate manner.
The outcome of the December 9 runoff election between Democrat Keller and Republican White will likely hinge on the 19% of the votes cast for Democrat Alex Uballez if and only if they actually get out and vote on December 9. On election night, Progressive Democrat Uballez urged his supporters not to support White but stopped short of endorsing Mayor Keller outright. Alexander Uballez said this of his third place finish:
“While we wanted to be in the runoff, our campaign is not stopping here. 20% is the bloc that will decide the runoff. … We cannot allow the keys to Albuquerque to be handed over to Darren White who would roll-over for Donald Trump.”
Brian Sanderoff, the president of Albuquerque-based Research & Polling Inc. that did the Albuquerque Journal poll, told the Journal a Uballez endorsement of Mayor Keller could be politically significant noting that Uballez received as much as 60% of the votes cast in one University of New Mexico voting precinct considered progressive Democrat. Sanderoff said it’s unlikely that Uballez supporters would back White, but it is not a certainty that they would support Keller in the runoff election or just stay home.
Sanderoff said this:
“The question is, will they vote?”
According to Sanderoff, if Mayor Keller is able to win the support of most Uballez voters, that could put him over the 50% threshold needed to claim victory over Darren White on November 9.
If Darren White were to win over voters who backed Louie Sanchez (6.44%), Mayling Armijo (5.72% ), Eddie Varela (1.70%) and Daniel Chavez (1.02%) and retain his own supporters of 30.65% , it would still leave him short of the 50% mark at 45.53%.
CONTENTIOUS RACE
There is little doubt that the city will now see the most contentious runoff in the city’s history as Keller and White vilify each other and point out each other’s flaws. We now have a battle between the two most disliked candidates who ran for Mayor. One candidate is the progressive Democratic Mayor with the very low approval rating of 42% who is perceived as failing to deal with the homeless crisis and the city’s high violent crime rates despite all of his promises, millions spent and programs initiated. The other is a Republican former elected official with a decade’s history of controversial public service. White resigned in controversy from both state and city cabinet level positions. Darren White now seeks to divide the voters by vilifying the homeless and undocumented immigrants akin to Donald Trump on the national level. Keller will rely on his Progressive Democratic party base and White will rely on his MAGA Republican party base as they both seek support from moderates to prevail.
Early Voting is from December1 to December 6.The runoff election is December 9 and as usual voter turn out will be critical. Please vote!
Links to quoted or relied upon news sources are here:
https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/albuquerque-mayoral-race-down-to-2-candidates-for-runoff-election/
https://www.koat.com/article/albuquerque-mayor-election-results-2025/69206982
https://www.pressreader.com/usa/albuquerque-journal/20251105/281479282668702
https://www.abqjournal.com/election/article_8cf48d11-9550-4ed2-88dc-d037f637ba46.html
https://nmindepth.com/2025/kellers-36-wasnt-weak-it-was-normal-for-abq-politics/