On Sunday, August 30, with the general election for New Mexico Governor scheduled for November 3, the Albuquerque Journal Published its expected poll in the 2026 race for Governor.
The Journal poll found 49% of likely voters surveyed said they plan to vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, who is seeking to become the first Native American woman elected governor in the nation’s history. Meanwhile, 43% of voters said they plan to vote for Republican Gregg Hull, the former Rio Rancho mayor who would be the first Republican to win a statewide race in New Mexico since 2016. The remaining 8% of voters surveyed said they had not yet decided on who they would support in the November general election.
The overall 6-point margin separating Deb Haaland and Greg Hull in the Journal Poll mirrors the final margin of New Mexico’s 2022 gubernatorial race between Democrat Incumbent Governor Lujan Grisham and Republican Mark Ronchetti.
DEMOGAPHIC POLL RESULTS
The demographic poll results are as follows:
PARTY AFFILIATION
Both Deb Haaland and Gregg Hull received strong support from voters of their own political parties. Hull garnered 89% of Republicans and only 8% of Democrats who said they plan to vote and Haaland garnered 86% of Democrats and only 6% of Republicans who said they plan to vote.
Among Independents polled, who have seen their ranks swell and now make up more than one-quarter of registered New Mexico voters, Haaland secured 45% of Independents to Hulls 36% and 19% of Independent voters said they had not yet decided who to support.
GENDER
Among Male voters polled, Democrat Deb Haaland received 43% support, Republican Greg Hull received 49% and 8% were undecided.
Among Female voters polled, Democrat Deb Haaland received 54% support, Republican Greg Hull received 37% and 8% were undecided
RACE AND ETHNICITY
Amongst Hispanics polled, 53% said they would vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, 37% said they would vote for Republican Gregg Hull, while 10% said they were undecided.
Amongst Anglo/Whites polled, 45% said they would vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, 48% said they would vote for Republican Gregg Hull and 6% said they were Undecided.
EDUCATION
The Journal poll found notable difference among surveyed voters by education level, as voters with a college or graduate degree were far more likely to express support for Haaland than for Hull.
Amongst those with a high school, trade or less education, 39% said they will vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, 49% said they would vote for Republican Gregg Hull and 12% said they were Undecided.
Amongst those with some college or associates degree education, 46% said they will vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, 44% said they would vote for Republican Gregg Hull and 11% said they were Undecided.
Amongst college graduates, 51% said they will vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, 43% said they would vote for Republican Gregg Hull and 6% said they were Undecided.
Amongst those with a graduate degree, 61% said they will vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, 34% said they would vote for Republican Gregg Hull and 5% said they were Undecided.
NEW MEXICO REGIONS
Looking at the race state wide by region, Democrat Deb Haaland has a significant advantage over Republican Gregg Hull in the Albuquerque metro area and in north central New Mexico, a traditional Democratic stronghold. However, Republican Gregg Hull has a lead in other, less populated parts of the state, including in northwest and southern New Mexico, along with the state’s usually conservative east side.
Voters polled within the Albuquerque Metro area, 56% said they will vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, 39% said they would vote for Republican Gregg Hull and 6% said they were Undecided.
Voters polled within the Northwest area of the State, 40% said they will vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, 51% said they would vote for Republican Gregg Hull and 10% said they were Undecided.
Voters polled within the North Central area of the State, 62% said they will vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, 27% said they would vote for Republican Gregg Hull and 11% said they were Undecided.
Voters polled within the Las Cruces/Southwest area of the State, 37% said they will vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, 54% said they would vote for Republican Gregg Hull and 9% said they were Undecided.
Voters polled on the Eastside area of the State, 34% said they will vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, 54% said they would vote for Republican Gregg Hull and 11% said they were Undecided.
POLL METHODOLOGY
“The Journal Poll was conducted from August 21 through August 28. It is based on a statewide random sample of 516 voters who cast ballots in the 2022 and/or 2024 general elections, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since January 2025 and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election.
The total sample of 516 voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples. The sample was stratified by race/ethnicity and county and weighted by party affiliation, gender and education level based on traditional voting patterns in New Mexico general elections, to ensure a more representative sample.
All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone. Both cellphone numbers (96%) and landlines (4%) of likely general election voters were used.”
The link to the quoted, unedited Albuquerque Journal article with photos and graphs and written by Albuquerque Journal reporter Dan Boyd is here:
PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS RECALLED
On Tuesday, June 2, 2026, the New Mexico primary election took place. It was the first semi-open primary in New Mexico history where independent voters could choose either the Democratic or Republican primary to vote in without having to register with that party. Overall voter turn out was the largest primary turnout in the last twelve years helped by the inclusion of independent voters who for the first time were allowed to vote in major party primaries. Independents voted Democratic with 28,000 and voted Republican with 10,000.
New Mexico history was made in the Democratic Primary for Governor when former Biden Cabinet Secretary of Interior Deb Haaland became the first Native American woman to be nominated for Governor of New Mexico. Deb Haaland garnered 72.3% (156,861 votes) of the votes to Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman’s 27.7% (60,189) cast around New Mexico. Haaland won every single county in the state by varying percentages. In Santa Fe County she won with 80% of the Democratic vote. In Bernalillo County Haaland won with 69%. In Dona Ana County, she won with 79%. In conservative Chavez County, thought to lean moderate Bregman, she won with 73%
On the Republican side for Governor, former three-term mayor of Rio Rancho Greg Hull prevailed to win the Republican nomination claiming victory over business owner Doug Turner and cannabis entrepreneur Duke Rodriguez in a three-way race for the GOP nomination. Gregg Hull secured 47% of the vote (56,412), Doug W. Turner secured 36.9% of the vote (44,319) and Duke Rodriguez secured 16.1% of the vote (19,288)
The 2026 New Mexico primary for Governor was the most expensive primary in the state’s history. According to finance reports filed with the Secretary of State, Democrats Deb Haaland raised over $12 Million while Sam Bregman raised upwards of $4 Million. Republican fundraising efforts were dwarfed by comparison. Gregg Hull raised $544,920, Doug Turner raised $703,189 and Duke Rodriquez self-financed to the tune of $1.5 Million.
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
Ever since Deb Haaland’s overwhelming 72.3% (156,861 votes) landslide victory over Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman’s 27.7% (60,189), politcal analysts have been predicting that Haaland would coast to an easy victory over Republican Gregg Hull who won his Republican primary 47% of the vote (56,412 vote). There is little doubt that the Albuquerque Journal poll has taken everyone by surprise given that it found a mere 6% points difference between the two candidates. The poll results will give Gregg Hull a major boost in his fundraising that will make the race even more competitive with Republicans no doubt feeling the Haaland is now considered vulnerable and the election winnable.
Notwithstanding, Republican Hull is facing an uphill battle in a Democratic leaning state. Democrat Deb Haaland is still well-positioned to win the November election even though the election will likely be closer than expected. Haaland is the former U.S. Interior secretary under President Joe Biden and a former congresswoman. Simply put, Haaland is a national figure with respect to her fundraising ability and the historical nature of her candidacy and the possibility of being the first native American who would be elected a governor. Haaland also has tremendous support among women, highly educated voters and Independent voters all taken together who will likely decide the election. Then there is the matter of the national political mood that clearly favors Democrats thanks in large part to President Trump’s disastrous presidency, the wars he has started and his disastrous handling of the economy. You can expect Haaland to zero in on all things Democrat and Independents to win the election.
The issues will also have an impact. Haaland is making Trump an issue in the race and has touted affordability as among her campaign priorities, while vowing to build more affordable housing for New Mexicans and expand tax breaks for low-income families. Hull for his part is taking the traditional Republican approach saying he would seek to make New Mexico more economically attractive, reduce tax rates, among other proposals. Gregg Hull thus far has avoided being labeled as MAGA Republican ideologue and has portrayed himself as a bipartisan pragmatist. Hull goes out of his way to to avoid Trump and his policies that are having an impact on New Mexico, such as Trumps Immigration and Customs policies.
Notwithstanding, with a full two months left before the November 3 election, anything can happen that could change the trajectory of the election, with the Albuquerque Journal poll being a prime example.