Since September 5, 2017, there have been five (5) opinion polls taken in the Mayor’s race that have been made public.
THE KRQE POLL
On September 5, 2017 KRQE reported the first poll in the 2017 Mayor’s race.
(http://krqe.com/2017/09/05/krqe-poll-albuquerque-voters-weigh-options-for-mayor-cite-crime-as-top-concern/)
The KRQE poll was one of 500 likely registered voters conducted by automatic phone calls with a margin of error of 5% which reduces accuracy.
The KRQE poll was taken before any of the candidates began to spend on radio and tv commercials.
KRQE reported each of the candidates polled as follows:
Democrat State Auditor Tim Keller – 22%
Republican City Councilor Dan Lewis – 11%
Former Democratic Party Chair Brian Colon – 10%
Republican County Commissioner Wayne Johnson – 8%
Independent retired APD Police Officer Michell Garcia-Holmes – 6%
Republican businessman Ricardo Chavez – 5%
Democrat Gus Pedrotty – 1%
Independent Susan Wheeler Diechel – 1%
UNDECIDED: 36%
The biggest winner in the KRQE poll, as with the two subsequent polls, was “undecided” at 36% or over one third of those polled still being undecided with the poll taken four weeks before the election.
The KOB CHANNEL 4 POLL:
On September 8, 2017 KOB reported a second poll.
http://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/mayoral-election-race-carroll-strategies-polling-albuquerque/4597439/?cat=500
The poll was conducted by Carol Strategies on September 3, 4, and 5, 2017.
The poll was one of 513 likely registered voters conducted by automatic phone calls with a margin of error of 4.3%.
KOB reported each of the candidates polled as follows:
Democrat State Auditor Tim Keller – 22.6%
Former Democratic Party Chair Brian Colon – 19.3%
Republican City Councilor Dan Lewis – 7.8%
Republican County Commissioner Wayne Johnson – 7.8%
Independent retired APD Police Officer Michell Garcia-Holmes – 5.8%
Republican businessman Ricardo Chavez – 3.5%
Democrat Gus Pedrotty – 1.9%
Independent Susan Wheeler Diechel – 1.8%
UNDECIDED: 30%
The biggest winner in the KOB poll was again “undecided” at 30% as compared to the 36% of undecided in the KRQE poll reported just one day earlier and the Journal poll at 32%.
FIRST ALBUQUERQUE JOURNAL POLL
On Sunday, September 17, 2017, the Albuquerque Journal released its first poll by well-known pollster Brain Sanderoff with Research & Polling, with a 4% margin of error.
(See September 17,2017 Albuquerque Journal, page A-1, “Journal poll: Keller leads, but runoff almost certain”)
Following are the results of the September 17, 2017 Albuquerque Journal poll:
• Democrat first term New Mexico State Auditor Tim Keller – 25%
• Former state Democratic Party Chairman and private attorney Brian Colón – 14%
• Republican City Councilor Dan Lewis – 13%
• Republican Bernalillo County Commissioner Wayne Johnson – 7%
• Independent Michelle Garcia Holmes, a retired Albuquerque police detective – 4%
• Democrat Augustus “Gus” Pedrotty, recent UNM graduate – 3%
• Republican Ricardo Chaves and founder of Parking Company of America – 1%
• Independent Susan Wheeler-Deichsel and founder of the civic group Urban ABQ – 1%
UNDECIDED: 32%
THE PUBLIC POLICY POLLING (PPP) POLL
On September 28, 2017, the democrat leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) was made public by political blogger Joe Monahan.
Following are the complete PPP survey percentages as reported by Joe Monahan:
Democrat Tim Keller – 33%
Republican Dan Lewis- 17%
Democrat Brian Colon – 16%
Republican Wayne Johnson – 14%
Independent Michelle Garcia Holmes – 4%
Democrat Gus Pedroty – 4%
Republican Ricardo Chavez – 1%
Indpendant Susan Wheeler Diechel – 1%
UNDECIDED: 10%
On Sunday, October 1, 2017, the Albuquerque Journal released its second poll two days before the election by well-known pollster Brain Sanderoff with Research & Polling, with a 4% margin of error.
https://www.abqjournal.com/1071495/keller-leads-lewis-in-second-excerpt-runoff-still-likely-with-close-race-possible-for-second-spot.html
Following are the results of the October 1, 2017 Albuquerque Journal poll:
• Democrat first term New Mexico State Auditor Tim Keller – 29%
• Former state Democratic Party Chairman and private attorney Brian Colón – 14%
• Republican City Councilor Dan Lewis – 18%
• Republican Bernalillo County Commissioner Wayne Johnson – 10%
• Independent Michelle Garcia Holmes, a retired Albuquerque police detective – 4%
• Democrat Augustus “Gus” Pedrotty, recent UNM graduate – 4%
• Republican Ricardo Chaves and founder of Parking Company of America – 1%
• Independent Susan Wheeler-Deichsel and founder of the civic group Urban ABQ – 1%
UNDECIDED: 18%
GUT WRENCHING POLLS
What always makes me laugh is when the press and the politicos call the polls “scientific” believing the hype of the accuracy of the polls.
If Donald Trump proved anything by getting elected President it is that the political consultants and polls are nothing but a cottage industry fueled by the ambitions of career politicians and talking heads.
The Sunday, October 1, 2017 Albuquerque Journal banner, top of the fold headline, boldly claimed that Dan Lewis is in second with 18%.
The headline should have read “Lewis and Undecided Tied For Second” with each getting 18% in the Journal poll.
The PPP poll said that there was 10% undecided while the Journal poll says 18%.
By any measure, 18% undecided is still very high and can change the outcome of the race.
But then again, Lewis is one of the two the Albuquerque Journal endorsed just last week and I presume that Keller will never be endorsed by the Journal.
The Journal reported that Tim Keller increased his lead by 4% from 25% to 29% in its own two polls which has a margin of error of 4%, but the PPP polls proclaimed that Keller was at 33%, an 8% increase from the Journal’s first poll.
The PPP poll was done by a Democrat leaning pollster which may explain the results, at least in part.
COMMENTARY AND FOOD FOR THOUGHT
Having been on the receiving end of political polls, I cannot tell you just how discouraging it is because negative polls do have an emotional impact not only on a candidate but their supporters and donors.
Donors once they see low poll numbers quickly become very reluctant to donate.
Voters too often change their mind when they see low poll numbers.
Please imagine going through a brutal campaign for a year or more, enduring constant criticism from all sides, being attacked with lies and smears in private and on the internet, knocking yourself out emotionally, trying to raise money, gather signatures to get on the ballot, exposing your family to emotional hardships, taking time away from your family, not to mention dealing with news reporters trying to make a name for themselves or sell papers and increase TV ratings, and a poll is released one or two days before and election telling you all what you did has been a waste of time for you.
Many political pollsters, consultants and the press know full well that their political polls all too often become self-fulling prophesies, even when all such polls are only of a few hundred people.
It is my belief that the press do the voting public a real disservice when they reveal the results of polls so close to an election and report them as news instead of letting people decide on their own and just let them go and vote.
Polls reduce elections to nothing more than high school popularity contests and to hell with the issues, and we wonder why voter turnouts are so low.
Why bother even having elections and having campaigns when we can all just save a lot of time, save millions, emotions, arguments and hurt feelings, do a poll, and swear in the person who comes in first, that way we would have sworn in Hillary Clinton as President.
Then again, it just might be a clever idea, given who we have as President.
To the candidates, press on, ignore the polls, do your best and know full well there is life and indeed happiness after an election.