On September 14, KOB Channel 4 published a “4 Investigates Poll” on the New Mexico Governor’s race it commissioned with Survey USA. The results of the poll in the Governor’s race revealed that Democrat Governor Michell Lujan Grisham has now busted out a double-digit lead over Republican Mark Ronchetti. The results of the poll reported are:
Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham: 48%
Republican Mark Ronchetti: 36%
Libertarian Karen Bedonie: 5%
The link to the KOB 4 report is here:
Following is the poll’s narrative analysis:
Governor Luajn Grisham has the backing of 88% of Democrats.
Lujan Grisham leads by an 83-point margin among both Democrats and liberals, and by 82 points among Biden voters.
Ronchetti has the backing of 76% Republicans. Ronchetti leads among Republicans by 67 points, among those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 with 66%, and among conservatives by 38 points.
Lujan Grisham is up by 18 points support among women with 51%.
Ronchetti has 33% support among women.
Lujan Grisham has 45% support among men.
Ronchetti has 39% support among men.
Lujan Grisham leads by 20 points among voters under age 50, but by 7 points among those 50+.
White voters back Ronchetti by an 8-point margin.
Latinos prefer Lujan Grisham by 33 points at 59%.
Lujan Grisham leads in lower and middle-income households.
Lujan Grisham and Ronchetti are effectively tied in upper-income households, with Ronchetti nominally ahead.
On issues, the Governor leads by 67 points among the 23% who say the environment is among the most important issues to them, by 50 points among the 7% focused on housing, by 46 points among the 29% who will be focused on abortion when casting their ballots, by 44 points among the 34% focused on healthcare, and by 10 percentage points among the 23% focused on education.
On the issues, Ronchetti leads by 43 points among the 1 in 3 voters who say immigration and border security are among the issues most likely to influence their votes this November, by 5 points among those who list inflation and the economy as a top issue (59% of the electorate).
Ronchetti and Lujan Grisham are effectively tied among the 58% of voters who say crime and public safety is a top issue.
Crime is considered the Governors vulnerability, with Ronchetti making it the cornerstone of his campaign, yet she managed to outpoll Ronchetti on the issue:
Governor MLG: 44%
Abortion and a woman’s right to choose is considered the defining issue in the race for Governor and the poll results confirm that:
68% support the Governor on the issue.
22% support Ronchetti.
ABOUT THE POLL
SurveyUSA interviewed a representative cross-section of 840 New Mexico adults online 09/08/22 through 09/12/22. Of the adults, 665 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 558 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November 2022 general election and were asked poll questions. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership. The poll has a relatively high margin of error of 5.7 percent.
The link to review further the poll results and analysis is here:
SurveyUSA Election Poll #26477
ABQ JOURNAL POLL
On Sunday, August 28, the Albuquerque Journal released it first poll in the 2022 Governor’s race between Democrat Incumbent Michell Lujan Grisham and Republican TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti. The poll was conducted by Research and Polling which for decades has done all political polling for the Journal and with polling firm considered the gold standard in New Mexico political polling because of its consistent accuracy.
RESULTS OF JOURNAL POLL
The poll asked the question “If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for? “ The poll results reported were:
Democrat Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham: 47%
Republican Mark Ronchetti: 40%
Libertarian Karen Bedoni: 5%
Abortion is considered the defining issue in the governor’s race. On August 29, the Albuquerque Journal released it poll on the issue.
The poll asked the question “WHICH COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW ON ABORTION” The results were as follows:
It should always be legal: 35%
It should be legal with some limitations: 22%
It should be illegal except for rape, incest, or to save the mother’s life: 25%
It should always be illegal: 12%
Don’t know: 2%
None of these/won’t say: 4%
POLITCAL PARTY BREAKDOWN
The poll results were broken down according to party affiliation. The responses to the poll question by party affiliation were as follows:
It should always be legal:
It should be legal with some limitations:
It should be illegal except for rape, incest, or to save the mother’s life:
It should always be illegal:
ABOUT THE JOURNAL POLL
“The Journal Poll was based on a scientific, statewide sample of 518 voters who cast ballots in the 2018 and/or 2020 general election and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election. The poll was conducted from Aug. 19 through Aug. 25. All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone. Both cellphone numbers (79%) and landlines (21%) of proven general election voters were used. The voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.”
FOLLOW THE MONEY
On September 12, the candidates for Governor filed their latest campaign finance reports. It covered a two-month period.
GOVERNOR MICHELL LUJAN GRISHAM
The Governor reported an opening balance of $2,749,077.80
Total Monetary Contributions the reporting period was $2,590,990.40 c.
Total Expenditures the Reporting Period was $2,376,845.55
The closing balance for the Reporting Period was $2,963,222.65
Total In-Kind Contributions the Reporting Period was $12,225.00
The Governor reported raising nearly $2.6 million, bringing her total fundraising for her reelection campaign to slightly more than $10 million which is more than the $9.7 million raised when first running for governor in 2018. Currently, Lujan Grisham has roughly $3 million in her campaign account with less than two months until Election Day.
Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham’s campaign finance report can be viewed here:
Mark Ronchetti reported and opening balance of $1,415,075.12
Total Monetary Contributions the Reporting Period were $2,402,094.31
Total Expenditures the Reporting Period were $1,404,539.04 d.
The Closing Balance was $2,412,630.39
Total In-Kind Contributions this Reporting Period was $10,996.52
Ronchetti reported raising $2.4 million during the same reporting period. He spent roughly $1.4 million on TV ads and other expenses, leaving upwards $2.4 million in his campaign war chest.
Republican Mark Ronchetti’s finance report can be viewed here:
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
There is less than two months left before the November 2 general election, but in politics that can be an eternity, and anything can happen. Notwithstanding, Governor Lujan Grisham has led in the polls throughout the race and she has now busted out a two-digit lead over Ronchetti. Debates still remain, anything can happen including missteps by the candidates and both candidates have hefty amounts of campaign cash that make it certain that the race is far from over.