On Friday, June 20 the City Clerk qualified 7 candidates out of 11 total candidates running for Mayor for the November 4 ballot after they successfully gathering 100% of the 3,000 qualifying nominating petition signatures from Albuquerque registered voters. If no one of the 7 candidates secures 50% plus one of the vote, the two top vote getters will face each other in a run off election which must be held within 45 days of the November 4 election.
The seven candidates who have qualified for the ballot are:
- Incumbent Mayor Tim Keller.
- Eddie Varela, a retired Albuquerque firefighter and former California fire chief.
- Alex Uballez, the former U.S. attorney for the District of New Mexico.
- Louie Sanchez, a retired APD police officer and current city councilor.
- Darren White, the former sheriff of Bernalillo County and former CEO of medcal cannabis company PurLife.
- Daniel Chavez, president of Parking Company of America was the very first to qualify for the ballot.
- Mayling Armijo, the former director of Economic Development for Bernalillo County and deputy county manager for Sandoval County.
Public finance candidates for Mayor were required to collect 3,780 donations of $5.00 to the city from registered voters to qualify for the city to give them $755,946 in city financing for their campaigns. On June 20, the City Clerk determined that Mayor Tim Keller was the only candidate to qualify for public finance and he was given $755,946 in public finance.
Under the City of Albuquerque’s campaign finance laws, a Measure Finance Committee (MFC) is a political action committee (PAC), person or group that supports or opposes a candidate or ballot measure within the City of Albuquerque. Measure finance committees are not bound by the individual contribution limits and business bans like candidates. Ascend Albuquerque is the measured Finance Committee which has been formed for the sole purpose “to support the election of Tim Keller as Mayor of Albuquerque.” On July 14, 2025, Ascend Albuquerque filed its fourth financial disclosure statement as required by the City’s election code and it reported that it has raised $101,700.00
NM BUSINESS COALITION COMMISSIONED POLL
The New Mexico Business Coalition (NMBC) is a statewide nonpartisan, pro-business, conservative organization. NMBC focuses on trying to improve the business environment for companies. The organization engages heavily in promoting a conservative business agenda including promoting right to work laws thereby opposing labor unions, opposing any and all increases in the minimum wage, opposing increases in taxation and opposing city zoning laws viewed as detrimental to development. The organization is considered highly supportive of law enforcement holding law enforcement appreciation events. The organization is known to get involved in municipal, county and legislative races going so far as to sponsor debates between candidates. For more information, you can visit NMBC website: https://nmbizcoalition.org/
On July 30, 2025 Carla J. Sonntag, the President and CEO of the New Mexico Business Coalition issued a press release announcing the results of an opinion poll in the 2025 race for Albuquerque Mayor. The press release is entitled “NM Albuquerque Residents Express Strong Discontent with Mayor Tim Keller’s Leadership, Signal Desire for Change, Survey Finds’’.
Following is the press release:
Albuquerque, NM – July 30, 2025 – A recent survey conducted from July 8 to July 12, 2025, reveals significant dissatisfaction among Albuquerque voters with the direction of the city under Mayor Tim Keller’s leadership. The poll included 529 likely 2025 Albuquerque election voters.
The survey results indicate that a substantial 64% of respondents disagree with the statement, “I am happy with the direction the City of Albuquerque is heading in,” with 50% strongly disagreeing and 14% somewhat disagreeing. Only 8% strongly agreed and 22% somewhat agreed with the statement. 5% of respondents were unsure. This overwhelming disapproval underscores an apparent shift among voters from what was seen in the last two mayoral elections.
When asked specifically about their opinion of Mayor Keller, only 33% of respondents viewed him favorably, while a striking 60% held an unfavorable opinion, and 7% had no opinion. These numbers highlight a significant lack of confidence in the two-term incumbent as he approaches the November 2025 General Election.
In hypothetical head-to-head matchups with each of the six challengers qualified for the November ballot for mayor, Keller trailed each of them. A substantial portion of voters are currently either supporting alternatives or remaining undecided. A noteworthy point of the poll is that little was known at this phase of the campaign about many of the challengers
“The data clearly shows that Albuquerque residents are deeply dissatisfied with the current trajectory of our city under Mayor Keller’s leadership,” said Carla Sonntag, President and CEO of the New Mexico Business Coalition that commissioned the poll. “Voters are signaling a strong desire for fresh ideas and a new direction in the upcoming election.”
The survey was conducted from July 8 to July 12, 2025, by Rival Strategy Group. There were 529 respondents randomly selected from a demographically proportionate sample of New Mexico registered voters likely to vote in the 2025 Albuquerque Election. The poll has a margin of error of ±4.2. The survey with demographic details is posted on the NMBC website under “2025 Voter Information.”
The link to the press release is here:
SURVEY QUESTIONS AND RESULTS
The opinion poll commissioned by the New Mexico Business Coalition (NMBC) was conducted by Rival Strategy Group which is a full-service political consulting firm which provides general political consulting, digital advertising services, web designing, direct mailing and polling. Rival Strategy Group is known to engage in political consulting for Republican candidates. In New Mexico, Rival Strategy Group boasts of having done work for the Republican Party of New Mexico, Republican Yvette Harrel for Congress and Republican Nella Domenici for US Senate.
https://www.rivalstrategygroup.com/
The poll was taken from July 8 through July 12, 2025 . 529 likely 2025 Election voters participated in the survey. The margin of Error is +/-4.2%. Following are the questions asked and the results:
Question 1: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “I am happy with the direction the City of Albuquerque is heading in.”
- Strongly agree: 8%
- Somewhat agree: 22%
- Somewhat disagree: 14%
- Strongly disagree: 50%
- Not sure: 5%
Question 2: What is your opinion of Mayling Armijo?
- Favorable: 8%
- Unfavorable: 10%
- No opinion: 81%
Question 3: What is your opinion of Daniel Chavez?
- Favorable: 6%
- Unfavorable: 13%
- No opinion: 81%
Question 4: What is your opinion of Tim Keller?
- Favorable: 33%
- Unfavorable: 60%
- No opinion: 7%
Question 5: What is your opinion of Louie Sanchez?
- Favorable: 16%
- Unfavorable: 24%
- No opinion: 60%
Question 6: What is your opinion of Alex Uballez?
- Favorable: 19%
- Unfavorable: 12%
- No opinion: 69%
Question 7: What is your opinion of Eddie Varela?
- Favorable: 9%
- Unfavorable: 16%
- No opinion: 74%
Question 8: What is your opinion of Darren White?
- Favorable: 35%
- Unfavorable: 39%
- No opinion: 26%
Question 9: If the candidates in the November 2025 General Election for Mayor of Albuquerque were just Daniel Chavez and Tim Keller, for whom would you vote?
- Daniel Chavez: 37%
- Tim Keller: 32%
- Undecided: 31%
Question 10: If the candidates in the November 2025 General Election for Mayor of Albuquerque were just Tim Keller and Louie Sanchez, for whom would you vote?
- Tim Keller: 33%
- Louie Sanchez: 40%
- Undecided: 27%
Question 11: If the candidates in the November 2025 General Election for Mayor of Albuquerque were just Tim Keller and Darren White, for whom would you vote?
- Tim Keller: 38%
- Darren White: 43%
- Undecided: 19%
Question 12: If the candidates in the November 2025 General Election for Mayor of Albuquerque were just Mayling Armijo and Tim Keller, for whom would you vote?
- Mayling Armijo: 37%
- Tim Keller: 27%
- Undecided: 35
Question 13: If the candidates in the November 2025 General Election for Mayor of Albuquerque were just Tim Keller and Eddie Varela, for whom would you vote?
- Tim Keller: 33%
- Eddie Varela: 34%
- Undecided: 33%
Question 14: If the candidates in the November 2025 General Election for Mayor of Albuquerque were just Tim Keller and Alex Uballez, for whom would you vote?
- Tim Keller: 25%
- Alex Uballez: 39%
- Undecided: 36%
DEMOGRAPHICS OF VOTERS SURVEYED
Following are the demographics break down of the poll:
% FROM CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS
- District 1: 79%
- District 2: 21%
% OF PARTY AFFILIATION
- Democrat 52%
- Republican 31%
- Non-Partisan 17%
% OF IDEOLOGY
- Conservative 34%
- Moderate 30%
- Liberal 36%
% OF GENDER
- Female 54%
- Male 46%
% OF AGES
- Ages 18-49: 29%
- Ages 50-64: 32%
- Age 65+ : 39%
% OF RACE
- White 53%
- Hispanic 32%
- Other 15%
The link to review the poll in its entirety is here:
Click to access ABQ-Mayor-Poll.Survey.pdf
ACCURACY OF POLL
Known critics of the poll who support Tim Keller for election to a third term are very cynical of the poll with one going so far as proclaiming it is a “push poll” which is an opinion poll that has the objective to sway voters using loaded, leading or manipulative questions. Critics also say because the poll was taken by a Republican Political Strategy company the poll is not to be believed.
The poll is straight forward. The questions asked can not be characterized as “loaded” nor manipulative. The poll can be characterized as a “horse race” poll simply to determine who the front runners are. The demographics of voters surveyed as to party affiliation, ideology, gender, age and race reflect that those polled are a healthy representation of the demographics of the city leading credence that it is a legitimate poll.
The percentage breakdown for each of the 14 questions asked and the percentage demographic breakdown of the survey can be found here:
Click to access ABQ-Mayor-Poll.Survey.pdf
PREVIOUS POLL AND SURVEY RECALLED
On November 2, 2022, the Albuquerque Journal reported and released the results of an opinion poll it commissioned that reported that Mayor Tim Keller at the time had a 40% disapproval rating and 33% approval rating.
https://www.abqjournal.com/news/local/article_ecd8f917-ee43-5ce4-b235-85c1a34a2b03.html
On April 16, 2024, the results of the annual City of Albuquerque Citizen Perception Survey were released. The City’s Citizens Satisfaction survey found as follows:
- 63% of citizens are concerned over the direction the city is going.
- 61% “disagree” and 35% “agree” that “the Albuquerque City Government is responsive to our community needs.”
Both survey findings directly reflect on the job performance of Mayor Tim Keller.
https://www.cabq.gov/progress/documents/albuquerque-yearly-survey-2023.pdf
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
The first biggest take away from the opinion poll is that each of the 6 candidates running against Mayor Tim Keller could beat Mayor Tim Keller in a runoff. All 6 candidates outpoll Keller in a runoff in the following order:
- Darren White with 43% to Tim Keller’s 38% and 19% undecided.
- Louie Sanchez with 40% to Tim Keller’s 33% and 27% undecided.
- Alex Uballez with 39% to Tim Keller’s 25% and 36% undecided.
- Daniel Chavez with 37% to Tim Keller’s 32% and 31% undecided.
- Mayling Armijo with 37% to Tim Keller’s 27% and 35% undecided.
- Eddie Varela with 34% to Tim Keller’s 33% and 33% undecided.
The very high number of undecided voters of between 19% and 36%, depending on the candidates who make it into the runoff with Keller, will ultimately decide the election in a runoff.
The second biggest take away from the opinion poll is that the two candidates for Mayor who have the highest Unfavorable Ratings are more likely than not will be the ones facing off against each other in a runoff. Mayor Tim Keller has a 60% Unfavorable Rating while Darren White has a 39% Unfavorable Rating.
It is clear from the poll that voters have very strong and negative opinions of both Mayor Tim Keller and Darren White. However, it is the favorable ratings that are the biggest indicator of the level of strength they have with the electorate and who will actually show up to vote for them.
The unfavorable and favorable ratings of all seven candidates compared are:
- Tim Keller’s unfavorable rating is 60%, his favorable rating is 33% and a mere 7% have no opinion of him.
- Darren White’s unfavorable rating is 39% and his favorable rating is 35% and 26% have no opinion of him.
- Louis Sanchez’s unfavorable rating 24% and his favorable rating is 16% and 60% have no opinion of him.
- Eddie Varela’s unfavorable rating is 16%, his favorable rating is 9% and 74% have no opinion of him.
- Daniel Chavez’s unfavorable rating is 13%, his favorable rating is 6% and 81% having no opinion of him.
- Alex Uballez’s unfavorable rating is 12%, his favorable rating is 19% and 69% having no opinion of him.
- Mayling Armijo’s unfavorable rating is 10%, her favorable rating is 8% and 81% having no opinion of her.
Democrat Mayor Keller as the incumbent is likely to get into the runoff given his 33% favorable rating which likely represents his base of support among progressive Democrats who will vote for him no matter his unfavorable rating and because of his progressive policies dealing with the homeless and his strong opposition to President Trump and federal cutbacks.
Republican Darren White is likely to get into the runoff given his 35% favorable rating which likely represents his base of support among Conservatives and MAGA Republicans because his stance on immigration, the homeless and crime.
According to the poll, those polled state they had “NO OPINION of the five remaining candidates as follows:
- Louis Sanchez: 60%
- Alex Uballez: 69%
- Eddie Varela: 74%
- Daniel Chavez: 81%
- Mayling Armijo: 81%
The “NO OPINION” poll numbers for the 5 are extremely high. This indicates they are virtually unknown to the general voting public meaning they have their work cut out for them to get their messaging out.
KELLER’S FINACIAL ADVANTAGE MAY NOT MATTER
Mayor Tim Keller is seeking a third consecutive four-year term despite the fact he has a very high unfavorable rating of 60%. Keller’s unfavorable rating has gone further up since November 2022 when the Journal poll found that he had a 40% disapproval rating. Notwithstanding Keller’s low polling, he will likely make it into a run off, either first or second, because of his loyal base of progressive Democrats he has relied upon every single time he has run for office including New Mexico State Senate, New Mexico State Auditor and twice as Mayor.
The fact that Mayor Keller is the only candidate to secure $755,946 in public finance and a measured finance committee that has raised another $101,700.00 to promote him for a grand total of $857,646 is a testament of the power of incumbency. It is clear evidence Keller is running against a very weak field of candidates given that Keller was the only one who qualified for public finance. Given the involvement of two well-known, respected progressive Democratic fundraisers, the measured fiancé committee will likely raise thousands more to promote Keller and to tear down his opponents. With the November 4 election so close, Keller will no doubt be forced to get very aggressive and go negative with his opponents given his unfavorable ratings.
Some politcal pundits and columnists are saying that if Keller’s opponents are unable to raise sufficient campaign donations, there is a possibility that Keller could capture 50% of the vote and avoid a runoff election between the top two finishers. That is likely wishful thinking given the poll results and given just how unpopular Keller really is amongst voters. Keller will need every penny of his public finance and the measured finance committee promotion to deal with and overcome his low approval ratings as the campaign drags on over the summer and into the fall and his opponents hit him hard on the issues until November 4.
Mayor Keller is a known quantity with extremely low approval ratings. No amount of money spent on his behalf to get him elected to a third term may be enough to reform his image in the eyes of voters who have simply had enough of his self-promotion ways with very little accomplished. Notwithstanding, all of Keller’s opponents are relegated to scrambling for private financing unless they are wealthy enough to self-finance. Only Daniel Chavez is believed to be able to self-finance but it’s still unknown to what extent he is willing to spend of his own money.
“ANY ONE BUT KELLER”
City Hall observers and political pundits are saying the election is Keller’s to lose. What they fail to take into account is the “any one but Keller movement”. It can also be called “Keller Fatique” which is what happened with “Chavez Fatique ” when Democrat Mayor Marty Chavez attempted to seek a third consecutive four-year term in 2009 and he lost to Republican Richard Berry with former Democrat State Senator Richard Romero splitting the Democrat vote with Chavez. The fact that the poll revealed that all 6 of Keller’s opponents beat him in a runoff is evidence that there is an “any one but Keller movement”. Simply put, people want change.
The “any one but Keller movement ” comes into sharp focus when the local news stations publish stories on FACEBOOK where Keller is interviewed at length about his candidacy and literally hundreds of public comments are made that are all negative and berating Keller for his failure to address and solve the city’s problems. Candidates who are running for city council and who were going door to door to collect nominating signatures and $5.00 for their own candidacies reported they were encountering strong anti-Keller sentiment at the doors with them being asked questions if they support Keller for reelection. One confidential source said they witnessed Keller himself encountering severe push back when he attended weekend public events to collect nominating petition signatures with people refusing to sign his petition and refusing to donate a $5 qualifying donation for public finance an who insisted they would never vote for him again.
FINAL COMMENTARY
The poll confirmed voters are dissatisfied with the direction the city is going with 50% saying they strongly do not agree the city is going in the right direction with 14% somewhat not agreeing the city is going in the right direction for a whopping total of 64%. The poll confirmed the April 16, 2024 Citizens Satisfaction Survey that found 63% of citizens are concerned over the direction the city is going. The polls underscore Keller’s poor performance as Mayor.
Eight years of Tim Keller as Mayor has been more than enough. Simply put, Albuquerque needs a new Mayor. Keller is completing 8 years as Mayor and he is still struggling with the very issues he dealt with 8 years ago: high violent crime rates, drugs, the homeless crisis and a corrupt APD. Things have not gotten any better under his leadership and some would say the city is worse off today than when he was first elected in 2017. What can Keller really accomplish with 4 more years when he has had 8?
Mayor Tim Keller has overstayed his welcome and voters want change, but Darren White clearly is not the change the city needs. Darren White would be a “chaotic disaster” given the repeated controversies he was embroiled with during his public service career and the politcal baggage he carries with him to this day.
Hope springs eternal that over the course of the campaign that Alex Uballez , Louis Sanchez, Mayling Armijo, Daniel Chavez or Eddie Varela will break out of the pack, will in fact raise enough money to compete and emerge as a viable candidate and succeed in removal of an entrenched politician. Otherwise the city will again be dealing with the choice of the lesser of two evils, as in the last election between Tim Keller and Sherriff Manny Gonzales, and electing a Mayor no one really likes nor wants and have to decide between Tim Keller and Darren White.
Please vote on November 4, 2025.