City’s 2025 First Sixth Months Crime Stats Reveal Crime Is Down Compared To 2024; Part Of National Trend Having Nothing To Do With Mayor Tim Keller’s Failed Violent Crime Reduction Policies

The Albuquerque Police Department (APD) has released mid-year crime statistics for 2025. The crime statistics for the first half of 2025 reveal significant decreases in many crime categories compared to the same period in 2024. Specifically, homicide, aggravated assault, auto theft, and other property crimes have seen significant reductions. APD also noted that felony arrests have increased, and they attribute these positive trends to factors like tech upgrades such as gunshot detection, and  surveillance cameras, and targeted enforcement actions.

According to APD’s midyear crime statistic for 2025, all major categories of crime are down compared to the same period in 2024. Auto theft has dropped 40%, residential burglary dropped 14%, and commercial burglary has dropped 24%. Major nonviolent crime is down by 25% when shoplifting is added. The three main categories of violent crime of  aggravated assault, sex crimes, and robbery are down 12%. Homicides which are identified as a totally separate category, have declined 28%. Murders went from 47 in the first half of 2024 to 34 the first half of 2025 year  putting the city on track to finish the year below 80 homicides. In 2024, the city recorded 89 total homicides.

The raw crime statistics reported for the time period of January 1 to June 30 comparing the years 2025 and 2024 are as follows:

PROPERTY CRIMES

Auto Theft ( APD Auto Theft Number)

2025:    1,336              2024: 2,213                %Change  -40%

(Auto Theft based on APD Auto Theft Division number.)          

Auto Theft (Other Source Reported)

2025:    1,871             2024:  3,023               %Change  -38%

(Residential and Commercial burglaries based on Location Category which is identified by reporting officer.)         

Auto Burglary

2025:    1,755             2024:  2,117              %Change -17%            

Residential Burglary

2025:   983                 2024:  1,145             %Change  -14%           

Commercial Burglary

2025:   754                 2024: 993                 %Change  -24%           

Shoplifting 

2025:  3,539               2024: 4,146              %Change  -15%

 TOTALS        

2025:  10,239             2024:  13,637           %Change   -25%

VIOLENT CRIMES

 Agg. Assault

2025:  2,105                2024: 2,362                %Change  -11%

Sex Crimes

2025:  240                    2024: 271                 %Change  -11%

Robbery

2025:   364                   2024: 447                  %Change -19

 Totals

2025: 2,709                  2024:  3,080               %Change  -12%

HOMICIDES

2025: 34                     2024: 47                      %Change -28%

(Homicides based on Internal APD Homicide calculations as produced and reported by Homicide Unit.

ARRESTS (NEW CHARGES)

Felony

2025:  2,580                  2024:  2,100               %Change  +23%

Misdemeanor

2025:  5,763                  2024: 5,108                 %Change +13%

(Arrests include all arrest types including taken into custody, on-site, cited and summoned. Felony Warrant includes arrests with felony warrant charge, Misdemeanor Warrant includes arrests with Misdemeanor warrant charge.)

https://www.cabq.gov/police/crime-statistics

HISTORICAL TRENDS

The history of property crime and violent crime totals for a 10 year period were also provided in the 2025 mid-year crime statistics report as follows:

 

Year Property Crime Violent Crime Totals
2014 30,523 4,934 35,457
2015 34,082 5,410 39,492
2016 38,639 6,248 44,887
2017 41,438 7,687 49,125
2018 34,898 7,997 42,895
2019 31,974 7,995 39,969
2020 28,354 7,875 36,229
2021 25,138 8,439 33,577
2022 27,068 8,016 35,084
2023 26,365 7,575 33,940

https://www.cabq.gov/police/crime-statistics/nibrs/2025-nibrs-quarterly-crime-stats

In 2023, the city’s recorded 19% drop in homicides marked Albuquerque’s largest annual decrease since 2010, when homicide totals hovered in the 30s. Following are the number of recorded homicides for the 8 years:

  • 2017:  70 homicides
  • 2018:  69 homicides
  • 2019:  80 homicides
  • 2020:  78 homicides
  • 2021: 110 homicides
  • 2022: 120 homicides
  • 2023:   93 homicides
  • 2024:   89 homicides
  • 2025:   42  mid year as of August 4 

(https://www.kob.com/news/top-news/albuquerque-police-investigated-89-homicide-cases-with-96-victims-in-2024/)

The most significant statistic reported by APD is that the city’s homicides went down 19% from 120 in 2022 to 93 in 2023 and again went down to 89 homicides in 2024. This marks Albuquerque’s largest decrease since 2010, when homicide totals hovered in the 30s.

According to APD, the downward trend in homicides is a result of better staffing, making more arrests in violent crime and solving cases. Police Chief Harold Medina attributed an improving solve rate to boosting the homicide unit to 16 detectives and training them better. He said he believed the sheer number of homicide suspects arrested — 117 in 2023 alone has driven down new cases.

APD detectives solved 53 of the 84 homicide cases from 2023 for a 63% clearance rate. Some involved multiple victims, and several suspects have since died or are on the loose.

Medina said getting thousands of stolen and pandemic-purchased guns off the streets is a major hurdle in reducing violent crime and homicides.  Medina  said the surplus of guns means more people are armed when a “simple conflict” arises.  The “simple conflict” defined  by APD as “individual disrespect” accounted for 57% of 2023’s killings.

The city also saw a 6% drop in nonfatal shootings from 353 in 2022 to 332 in 2023. Last year’s total still remained well above the 265 and 285 shootings recorded in 2021 and 2020, respectively.

Following are the Aggravated Assaults numbers for the past 8 years that also reflect a slight decline:

  • 2017: 4,213
  • 2018: 5,156
  • 2019: 5,337
  • 2020: 5,592
  • 2021: 5,669
  • 2022: 5,399
  • 2023: 4,961
  • 2024: 4,404 

NATIONAL TRENDS

The city’s downward trend in crime statistics mirrors those seen nationally, even in the most violent cities. Across the country, the decrease has been attributed to an easing of the societal impacts of the pandemic. Locally, authorities say it is a result of better staffing and making more arrests in violent crime.

The Center for American Progress (CAP) is a progressive public policy research and advocacy organization. CAP focuses on a wide range of issues, including economic opportunity, social policy, national security, environmental protection and law enforcement trends.

On August 5, CAP published an article on the released 2024 data from the FBI show historic lows in the national murder rate, violent crime rate, and property crime rate.  The report was entitled Nationwide 2024 Crime Data Demonstrate the Value of Violence Prevention and Local Law Enforcement. Following are edited outtakes from the report followed by the link to the full report:

On August 5, 2025, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) released crime data confirming that the overall rates of violent and property crime in the United States declined in 2024, recording the lowest property crime rate and lowest violent crime rate since at least 1969.* These data support a trend of sustained and historic declines in the nation’s crime rate since 2022.

These significant public safety gains follow a catastrophic surge in the nation’s murder rate between 2020 and 2021, which coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic—a surge that saw a 44 percent increase in firearm-related homicides nationally between March 2020 and October 2021. Not only does this newly released data support the finding that the country has returned to pre-pandemic levels of crime and violence, but many communities across the country, including BaltimoreDetroit, and Philadelphia, are now much safer today than before the pandemic started.

This positive trend is a testament to the successful coordination between community-based organizations; law enforcement; and local, state, and federal policymakers that have maximized federal funding opportunities and policies from the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act (BSCA), and the Community-Based Violence Intervention and Prevention Initiative (CVIPI) to make all American communities safer.  … .

Key findings from 2024 FBI Reported Crimes in the Nation Statistics report include:

  • The national murder rate again recorded the largest one-year decline in homicides, down 9 percentfrom 2023 to 2024. This means that there have been back-to-back years of historic declines after the murder rate declined by 10 percent from 2022 to 2023.*
  • Gun homicides are down 16.7% in 2024 compared with 2023, and assaults with a firearm are down 8.6% in 2024 compared with 2023. When the national murder rate surged in 2020 and 2021,homicides with a gun were the primary driver while other types of homicides remained flat.
  • Overall violent crime declined by 4.5% from 2023 to 2024, the lowest recorded rate since 1969.
  •  Overall property crime declinedby 8.1%, the lowest recorded rate since 1961. Motor vehicle thefts decreased by 18.6 percent from 2023 to 2024. However, reported shoplifting nationwide went up by 8.9 percent in 2024 compared with 2023.
  •  Alabama, the District of Columbia, and Iowa each showed double-digit percentage decreases in violent crime rates, and 18 states showed double-digit percentage decreases in property crime rates in the 2024 FBI data compared with 2023.
  •  While cities with a population of greater than 1,000,000 saw the largest declines in murders on average, down 19.1% communities of all sizes experienced significant declines, and no group category of community saw an average increase in violent crime compared with 2023. Nonmetropolitan counties saw a 4.6% decrease in overall violent crime and a 16 percent decline in murders. Similarly, suburban areas saw a 5.7 percent decrease in overall violent crime and a 12.4 percent decline in murders.
  • Nationwide, law enforcement agencies reportedclearing 43.8 percent of all violent crimes and 15.9 percent of all property crimes in 2024.

EFFECTIVE STRATEGIES HAVE MADE COMMUNITIES SAFER

Progress in 2024 followed the first major gun reform bill passed by Congress in more than 30 years—the 2022 Bipartisan Safer Communities Act. The BSCA made historic investments in violence intervention strategies and improved commonsense gun laws across the country by closing loopholes in the gun purchasing background check system, establishing federal criminal offenses for straw purchasing and trafficking, addressing dating violence loopholes, supporting implementation of extreme risk protection orders, and funding a 21st century pipeline of mental health professionals.

Jurisdictions that have experienced some of the most significant decreases in their gun victimization rates since 2021 have invested in violence reduction strategies that emphasize coordination with and investment in community-based organizations and can include improved data sharing practices and additional funding for community violence intervention (CVI) programs. CVI programs connect individuals at the highest risk of being involved in violence with resources and services to stop violence before it starts. Evaluations of CVI models consistently show that CVI programs are one of the most effective tools to interrupt cycles of violence. These gains were made possible because of vital federal funding support from ARPA, BSCA, and CVIPI grants.

The latest FBI data also estimate small increases in the rates at which murder, violent crime, and property crime are solved, known as clearance rates. After falling to a historic low of 49.4 percent in 2021, the clearance rate for murder increased to 61.4 in 2024 but has not surpassed pre-COVID rates. Cities such as Houston and Garfield Heights, Ohio, spent federal ARPA funds on new technology and on hiring police investigators and analysts to solve more crimes. While recent increases in clearance rates are encouraging, far too many crimes go unsolved in cities and rural areas alike, enabling many people to avoid accountability for the harm they cause. Cities should follow the lead of cities such as Boston, which increased its homicide clearance rate by 19 percentage points by hiring additional detectives and leveraging data and technology, and Denver, which increased its nonfatal shooting clearance rate from 39 percent to 65 percent in the first seven months after establishing a specialized unit dedicated exclusively to solving nonfatal shootings. BSCA also contributed to reductions in gun crimes by giving law enforcement additional tools to stop illegal gun trafficking, preventing individuals convicted of misdemeanor crimes of domestic violence from possessing firearms, expanding background checks, and investing in CVI programs.

The link to the unedited article is here:

https://www.americanprogress.org/article/nationwide-2024-crime-data-demonstrate-the-value-of-violence-prevention-and-local-law-enforcement/

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

One thing that is very certain is that the downward trend in Albuquerque’s crime rates and homicides has had nothing to do with Mayor Tim Keller’s failed Violent Crime reduction programs, including Keller’s Violence Intervention Program.

KELLER’S FAILED VIOLENT CRIME REDUCTION PROGRAMS

Over 7 years ago, in August, 2017, then New Mexico State Auditor Tim Keller, candidate for Albuquerque Mayor, had this to say about the city’s high crime rates:

“It’s unfortunate, but crime is absolutely out of control. It’s the mayor’s job to actually address crime in Albuquerque, and that’s what I want to do as the next mayor.”

It was in 2019 that Mayor Tim Keller reacting to the spiking violent crime rates, announced 4 programs in 9 months to deal with and bring down the city’s high violent crime rates. Keller also launched his “Community Safety Department” and his “Metro Crime Initiative” which he claimed would fix the “broken criminal justice” system.

All 4 initiatives involve early intervention and partnership with other agencies and are summarized as follows:

  1. THE SHIELD UNIT

In February 2018 the Albuquerque Police Department (APD) created the “Shield Unit”. The Shield Unit assists APD Police Officers to prepare cases for trial and prosecution by the Bernalillo County District Attorney’s office.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1325167/apd-expands-unit-that-preps-cases-for-prosecution.html

  1. DECLARING VIOLENT CRIME A PUBLIC HEALTH CRISIS

On April 8, 2019, Mayor Keller and APD announced efforts that will deal with “violent crime” in the context of it being a “public health crisis” and dealing with crimes involving guns in an effort to bring down violent crime in Albuquerque.

  1. THE “VIOLENCE INTERVENTION PLAN” The “Violence Intervention PLAN (VIP program)

On November 22, 2019 Mayor Tim Keller announced what he called a “new initiative” to target violent offenders called “Violence Intervention Plan” (VIP). Mayor Keller proclaimed the VIP is a “partnership system” that includes law enforcement, prosecutors and social service and community provides to reduce violent crime. Mayor Keller stated:

“… This is about trying to get these people not to shoot each other. …This is about understanding who they are and why they are engaged in violent crime. … And so, this actually in some ways, in that respect, this is the opposite of data. This is action. This is actually doing something with people. …”

The “Violence Intervention Plan” can be described as a “fantasy land” experiment especially when there is little that can be done to prevent the violent crime of murder by “trying to get these people not to shoot each other” and “understanding who they are and why they are engaged in violent crime.”

  1.  THE METRO 15 OPERATION PROGRAM

On Tuesday, November 26, 2019 Mayor Tim Keller held a press conference to announce his 4th program within 9 months to deal with the city’s violent crime and murder rates. At the time of the press conference, the city’s homicide count was at 72, matching the city’s record in 2017.

FAILED PROGRAMS

All 4 of Keller’s Volent Crime Reduction programs were initiated in 2019. Notwithstanding his programs, violent crimes, aggravated assaults and homicides continued to spike for the years 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. Simply put, Mayor Keller’s Violent Crime Reduction programs have been failures and did not have any statistical impact on reducing crime. The truth is that for a good 3 years before the COVID pandemic hit the city hard in 2020 under Keller’s watch, violent crime rates were spiking, so much so that 7 years ago then candidate for Mayor Tim Keller made reducing the city’s crime rates a cornerstone of his campaign.

Notwithstanding the 19% reduction in homicides in 2023, the sure spike in homicides during Keller’s tenure as Mayor is an obscene reflection that the city is  one of the most violent cities in the country under his tenure.  This is our new norm as the city follows national trends.

Keller’s promise 7 years  ago when he ran for Mayor the first time was APD would have 1,200 sworn police, but in the entire 7 years he has been mayor Keller’s promise never materialized.  Currently the APD  has  about 900  sworn police with only 350 sworn police patrolling the streets in 3 shifts. The city and APD never once achieved 1,000 sworn police under Mayor Keller. Keller himself has said the 1,100 figure is unrealistic and no longer even mentions his original goal of 1,200 sworn.

There has been a decrease in homicides in big cities including Los Angeles and Detroit, but also in those long besieged by gun violence, like Chicago. Baltimore, with a similar population and reputation as Albuquerque for years has been known as one of the most violent American cities. In 2024, Baltimore recorded a 22.5% drop in homicides, its largest single-year decrease, and a 7% drop in nonfatal shootings. Albuquerque’s trend downward in homicides reflects an identical downward trend nationally, even in the most violent cities. Across the country, the decrease has been attributed to an easing of the societal impacts of the pandemic.

Now Mayor Tim Keller is running for a third consecutive 4 year term, there is no doubt Mayor Tim  Keller will try and  take all the credit for the City’s declining crime rates when in fact all his efforts have been a failure.  Albuquerque and APD are  worse off today with Tim Keller as Mayor than when he was elected the first time in 2017.

The link to a related article is here:

Mayor Tim Keller: “Crime Is Absolutely Out Of Control”; 2020 Crime Statistics Report Property Crime Down But Violent Crime, Shootings, Stabbings And Murder Up; Murders Up 3rd Year In A Row Under Keller

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About

Pete Dinelli was born and raised in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He is of Italian and Hispanic descent. He is a 1970 graduate of Del Norte High School, a 1974 graduate of Eastern New Mexico University with a Bachelor's Degree in Business Administration and a 1977 graduate of St. Mary's School of Law, San Antonio, Texas. Pete has a 40 year history of community involvement and service as an elected and appointed official and as a practicing attorney in Albuquerque. Pete and his wife Betty Case Dinelli have been married since 1984 and they have two adult sons, Mark, who is an attorney and George, who is an Emergency Medical Technician (EMT). Pete has been a licensed New Mexico attorney since 1978. Pete has over 27 years of municipal and state government service. Pete’s service to Albuquerque has been extensive. He has been an elected Albuquerque City Councilor, serving as Vice President. He has served as a Worker’s Compensation Judge with Statewide jurisdiction. Pete has been a prosecutor for 15 years and has served as a Bernalillo County Chief Deputy District Attorney, as an Assistant Attorney General and Assistant District Attorney and as a Deputy City Attorney. For eight years, Pete was employed with the City of Albuquerque both as a Deputy City Attorney and Chief Public Safety Officer overseeing the city departments of police, fire, 911 emergency call center and the emergency operations center. While with the City of Albuquerque Legal Department, Pete served as Director of the Safe City Strike Force and Interim Director of the 911 Emergency Operations Center. Pete’s community involvement includes being a past President of the Albuquerque Kiwanis Club, past President of the Our Lady of Fatima School Board, and Board of Directors of the Albuquerque Museum Foundation.