On Friday, June 20 the City Clerk qualified 7 candidates out of 11 total candidates running for Mayor for the November 4 ballot. The seven candidates who have qualified for the ballot are:
- Incumbent Mayor Tim Keller.
- Eddie Varela, a retired Albuquerque firefighter and former California fire chief.
- Alex Uballez, the former U.S. attorney for the District of New Mexico.
- Louie Sanchez, a retired APD police officer and current city councilor.
- Darren White, the former sheriff of Bernalillo County and former CEO of medcal cannabis company PurLife.
- Daniel Chavez, president of Parking Company of America was the very first to qualify for the ballot.
- Mayling Armijo, the former director of Economic Development for Bernalillo County and deputy county manager for Sandoval County.
On June 20, the City Clerk determined that Mayor Tim Keller was the only candidate to qualify for public finance, and he was given $755,946 in public finance. The remaining six candidates are privately financed.
On August 11, the 7 of the candidates for Mayor were required to file with the City Clerk their fifth Mayoral Campaign Finance report on contributions and expenditures covering the time period of July 14 to August 11. Following is a summary review of those reports:
- TIMOTHY KELLER
COMBINED FINANCIAL TOTALS
- Total Contributions $757,147.57
- Total Expenditures $72,910.00
- In-Kind Contributions $1,396.25
- In-Kind Expenditures $248.16
- Current Cash Balance $684,237.57
- Current Debt Balance $0.00
TOP CONTRIBUTORS
- City of Albuquerque $733,968.00
- Tim Keller $2,500.00
- Garcia Realty $781.25
- Tim Keller $650.00
- Ona Porter $615.00
Tim Keller lists 191 contributors for a total of $733,968.00
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ANALYSIS: Mayor Tim Keller is the only candidate to qualify for public financing. His reelection campaign has been given $733,968 in public funding on July 17. He ends the period with $684,237 on hand after spending $26,000 with a Chicago-based campaign consulting firm and paying $12,945 to his longtime political consultant Neri Holguin, among other smaller expenses.
The link to a relied upon or quoted news source is here:
Click here to review the financial disclosure statement and to download all filed contributions and filed expenditures for
- MAYLING ARMIJO
COMBINED FINANCIAL TOTALS
- Total Contributions $77,666.65
- Total Expenditures $39,939.18
- In-Kind Contributions $2,257.72
- In-Kind Expenditures $0.00
- Current Cash Balance $37,727.47
- Current Debt Balance $15,175.65
TOP CONTRIBUTORS
- Mayling Armijo $15,175.65
- Beelien Armijo $6,000.00
- Mia Armijo $6,000.00
- Walter Grodahi $6,000.00
- Joseph J. Armijo $6,000.00
Mayling Armijo lists 70 contributors for a total of $77,666.65.
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ANALYSIS: Mayling Armijo secured $39,500 in new donations from 42 donors. Almost half of her total donations came from Armijo family members, including $6,000 each from Joseph, Mia and Beelien Armijo, and $4,000 from Beeling Armijo, all of Albuquerque. Her largest non-Armijo donor was $6,000 from Walter Groadhi, a housing developer based in Oregon. She has just $37,727 cash on hand.
The link to a relied upon or quoted news sources are here:
Click here to review the financial disclosure statement and to download all filed contributions and filed expenditures for MAYLING ARMIJO:
- EDDIE VARELA
COMBINED FINANCIAL TOTALS
- Total Contributions $6,377.66
- Total Expenditures $6,820.76
- In-Kind Contributions $7,800.00
- In-Kind Expenditures $300.00
- Current Cash Balance -$443.10
- Current Debt Balance $0.00
TOP CONTRIBUTORS
- CIPGAW $4,000.00
- Eddie Varela $2,827.06
- CIPGAW $1,500.00
- Angie Custom Design $1,300.00
- Chester & Diana Stewart $1,000.00
Eddie Varela lists 30 contributors for a total of $6,377.66.
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ANALYSIS: Eddie Varela reported a negative cash balance of -$443 at the end of the reporting period. He reported spending over $1,000 on “Food, Beverages and Meals” and raised just $227 for the reporting period.
The link to a relied upon or quoted news sources are here:
Click here to review the financial disclosure statement and to download all filed contributions and filed expenditures for EDDIE VARELA:
- DARREN WHITE
COMBINED FINANCIAL TOTALS
- Total Contributions $179,993.67
- Total Expenditures $63,506.77
- In-Kind Contributions $16,029.16
- In-Kind Expenditures $25.00
- Current Cash Balance $116,486.90
- Current Debt Balance $20,000.00
TOP CONTRIBUTORS
- Darren White $20,000
- Progress Healthcare, Inc $10,000
- Darren White $8,765
- RGL Investments $6,000
- Peterson Properties $6,000
Darren White lists 544 contributors for a total of $179,993.67 contributions.
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ANALYSIS: Darren White ends the period with $116,486 in cash. White led individual fundraising with 116 new donations totaling $105,993. White’s largest contributors were $6,000 from Pierre Amestoy, a local developer, and $5,000 each from entities associated with the Pitre family’s automotive businesses, cannabis companies Truforia and Elevated Labs, and Peterson Properties run by Doug Peterson. White also reported a $10,000 donation from Progress Healthcare based in Louisiana, though the city’s limit for contributions to mayoral candidates is $6,000. White told the on line news outlet City Desk the extra $4,000 has been returned, but since the check was sent back after the reporting deadline, it won’t appear until next month’s report. Only Darren White and Louie Sanchez enter the next fundraising period with more than $100,000 in cash on hand.
The link to a relied upon or quoted news source is here:
Click here to review the financial disclosure statement and to download all filed contributions and filed expenditures for Darren White:
- ALEXANDER M.M. UBALLEZ
COMBINED FINANCIAL TOTALS
- Total Contributions $98,411.80
- Total Expenditures $68,633.09
- In-Kind Contributions $88.70
- In-Kind Expenditures $0.00
- Current Cash Balance $29,778.71
- Current Debt Balance $0.00
TOP CONTRIBUTORS
- Aleli Colon $3,610.72
- Haley Murphy $2,407.27
- Brian Colon $1,203.22
- Diane Cox $1,203.22
- Gabriela Gomez $1,200.00
ALEXANDER M.M. UBALLEZ lists 503 contributors for a total of $98,411.80 in contributions.
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ANALYSIS: Alex Uballez ended the reporting period with $29,778 in cash on hand after raising over $19,000 in new contributions. He also spent over $40,000 during the same period. Among 103 new donations, Uballez’s largest contributors were $962 from Miranda Viscolli, leader of the nonprofit New Mexicans to Prevent Gun Violence, $1,203 each from Brian Colón, former state auditor and managing partner of the Singleton Schreiber law firm’s New Mexico office, and his wife Aleli Colón and multiple donations under $500 from local attorneys.
The link to a relied upon or quoted news sources are here:
Click here to review the financial disclosure statement and to download all filed contributions and filed expenditures for Alexander M.M. Uballez:
- LOUIE SANCHEZ
COMBINED FINANCIAL TOTALS
- Total Contributions $222,488.83
- Total Expenditures $58,519.69
- In-Kind Contributions $1,000.00
- In-Kind Expenditures $0.00
- Current Cash Balance $163,969.14
- Current Debt Balance $152,500.00
TOP CONTRIBUTORS
- Sanchez, Louie $150,000
- Sanchez, Louie $10,000
- Peterson Properties $6,000
- Thomas P. Tinnin $6,000
- Alarid, Vanessa $6,000
LOUIE SANCHEZ lists 111 contributors for a total of $222,488.83 in contributions.
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ANALYSIS: Sanchez raised $6,746 in new donations for the period running from July 8 through August 4. Over $5,800 of Sanchez’s donations came from a single donor from Texas. But Sanchez ends the period with $163,969 with a $150,000 loan he provided to his campaign. Only Louie Sanchez and Darren White enter the next fundraising period with more than $100,000 in cash on hand.
The link to the quoted or relied upon news sources are here:
Click here to review the financial disclosure statement and to download all filed contributions and filed expenditures for Louis Sanchez.
- DANIEL CHAVEZ
COMBINED FINANCIAL TOTALS
- Total Contributions $114,375.00
- Total Expenditures $106,107.47
- In-Kind Contributions $0.00
- In-Kind Expenditures $0.00
- Current Cash Balance $8,267.53
- Current Debt Balance $0.00
TOP CONTRIBUTORS
- 1. Kathleen Chavez $6,000
- Peterson Properties, LLC $6,000
- Ava Bataglia $1,000
- John Martin Bradley $600
- Phillip Ward $500
Daniel Chavez lists 10 contributors for a total of $114,375.00 in contributions.
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ANALYSIS: Daniel Chavez launched his campaign with a $100,000 donation from personal funds. He ended the reporting period with $8,267 in cash available. He had previously reported spending over $40,000 on paid signature collectors and campaign consultants. Daniel Chavez is considered by many as the only candidate that is capable of self-financing his campaign and has the ability to donate much more if he chooses.
The link to the quoted or relied upon news source is here:
Click here to review the financial disclosure statement and to download all filed contributions and filed expenditures for Daniel Chavez:
KELLER’S FINANCIAL ADVANTAGE IN A NUTSHELL
In a nutshell, the campaign contributions for all seven candidates stand as follows:
- Tim Keller: $757,147 (Raised) Current Balance: $684,237
- Louie Sanchez: $222,483 (Raised) Current Balance: $163,969 Personal Contribution: $160,000
- Darren White: $179,993 (Raised) Current Balance: $116,486 Personal Personal Contribution: $29,000
- Daniel Chavez: $114,375 Current Balance: $8,267 Personal Contribution: $100,000
- Alex Uballez : $98,411 Current Balance: $29,778
- Mayling Armijo: $77,666 Current Balance: $37,727
- Eddie Varela: $ 6,377 Current Balance: – $443.00
Mayor Keller’s campaign manager Neri Holguin said public campaign financing gives Mayor Keller edge in the race pointing out that four of the other six candidates tried unsuccessfully to qualify for the public cash. Holguin said this:
“The Keller campaign enters the fall with the clear advantage of having earned public financing. … Unlike our opponents, we’re not chasing dollars — we’re focused on meeting voters where they are and talking about the future of Albuquerque.”
Brian Sanderoff, the President of Research and Polling and KOAT-TV political expert said this about the current status of the race:
“It’s not a partisan race between one Democrat and one Republican. We’ve got seven candidates running for mayor who have qualified for the ballot. Some of these candidates aren’t exactly household names. Some of them are still working hard to get their name out there. So, the voters actually know who they are. … If a candidate does not receive 50% or more of the vote, there will be a runoff. So, with all these candidates in the race, it’s a very high likelihood that we’ll be having a runoff election one month after the November election.”
“The top three candidates right now in terms of campaign funds — Tim Keller, Louie Sanchez and Darren White, but they’re far behind Keller because they didn’t get the public campaign financing. Louie Sanchez has raised over $200,000, but much of that money came from his own personal contribution to the campaign. Darren White has received a lot of individual campaign contributions, but because the numbers are relatively small, it adds up to about $180,000. … Tim Keller starts out with a big advantage because he was the only candidate who qualified for public campaign financing. That means he received nearly $750,000 of taxpayer money to help out in his campaign, but what counts on election day is the number of votes, not the number of dollars.”
“Tim Keller starts out with a big advantage because he was the only candidate who qualified for public campaign financing. That means he received nearly $750,000 of taxpayer money to help out in his campaign, but what counts on election day is the number of votes, not the number of dollars.”
The link to the quoted KOAT TV news report is here:
https://www.koat.com/article/albuquerque-mayoral-race/65811613
MEASURED FINANCE COMMITTEE FINANCIAL REPORTS
There are three measured finance committees (MFA) formed to promote 3 individual candidates for Mayor . On August 11, the 3 committees filed finance reports for the period of July 14 to August 11 with the City Clerk as follows:
- ASEND ALBUQUERQUE MEASURED FINANCE COMMITEE
Ascend Albuquerque is the measured Finance Committee which has been formed for the sole purpose “to support the election of Tim Keller as Mayor of Albuquerque.” On July 14, 2025, Ascent Albuquerque filed it fourth financial disclosure statement as required by the City’s election code. Following is a summary of the Financial Report for Ascend Albuquerque:
COMBINED FINANCIAL TOTALS
- Total Contributions $132,350.00
- Total Expenditures $30,276.44
- In-Kind Contributions -0-
- In-Kind Expenditures – 0-
- Current Cash Balance $102,073.56
- Current Debt Balance $0.00
TOP CONTRIBUTORS
- Council of Carpenters, Brotherhood of Carpenters $20,000
- New Mexico Building and Construction Trades Council: $20,000
- Fresquez Concessions, Inc $15,000
- Sangre De Cristo Hotel Investment, LLC $10,000
- IBEW PAC Voluntary Fund $10,000
Download All Filed Contributions
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The city link to review the Financial Disclosure Statement for Ascend Albuquerque is here:
- Safer Albuquerque Committee (Safer ABQ)
Safer Albuquerque Committee (Safer ABQ) is the measured finance committee formed to “advocate for Mayling Armijo’s candidacy for mayor during the Albuquerque 2025 mayoral race and align with values that reduce crime, reduce homelessness, and promote job growth.”
COMBINED FINANCIAL TOTALS
- Total Contributions $135,080.00
- Total Expenditures $133,363.75
- In-Kind Contributions 0.00
- In-Kind Expenditures 0.00
- Current Cash Balance $1,716.25
- Current Debt Balance $0.00
TOP CONTRIBUTORS
- Katrina Tracy $55,000
- Chauling Mary Armijo $40,000
- Four Winds Mechanical HTC/AC $40,000
- Charles Rolison $80.00
Download All Filed Contributions
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The city link to review the Financial Disclosure Statement for Safer Albuquerque Committee (Safer ABQ) is here:
- CIPGAW: Committee to Elect Eddie Varela Mayor of Albuquerque
CIPGAW: Committee to Elect Eddie Varela Mayor of Albuquerque is the measured finance committee which has been formed “for the purpose to Elect Eddie Varela Mayor of Albuquerque.”
COMBINED FINANCIAL TOTALS
- Total Contributions: $7,500,00
- Total Expenditures: $6,924.83
- In-Kind Contributions: -0-
- In-Kind Expenditures: -0-
- Current Cash Balance: $575.17
- Current Debt Balance: -0-
TOP CONTRIBUTORS
Bradley William Day $7,500
Download All Filed Contributions
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The city link to review the Financial Disclosure Statement for CIPGAW: Committee to Elect Eddie Varela Mayor of Albuquerque is here:
OPINION POLL RELEASED
On July 30, 2025 the New Mexico Business Coalition issued a press release announcing the results of an opinion poll in the 2025 race for Albuquerque Mayor.
The first biggest take away from the opinion poll is that each of the 6 candidates running against Mayor Tim Keller could beat Keller in a runoff. All 6 candidates outpoll Keller in a runoff in the following order:
- Darren White with 43% to Tim Keller’s 38% and 19% undecided.
- Louie Sanchez with 40% to Tim Keller’s 33% and 27% undecided.
- Alex Uballez with 39% to Tim Keller’s 25% and 36% undecided.
- Daniel Chavez with 37% to Tim Keller’s 32% and 31% undecided.
- Mayling Armijo with 37% to Tim Keller’s 27% and 35% undecided.
- Eddie Varela with 34% to Tim Keller’s 33% and 33% undecided.
The very high number of undecided voters of between 19% and 36%, depending on the candidates who make it into the runoff with Keller, will ultimately decide the election in a runoff.
The second biggest take away from the opinion poll is that the two candidates for Mayor who have the highest Unfavorable Ratings are more likely than not will be the ones facing off against each other in a runoff. Mayor Tim Keller has a 60% Unfavorable Rating while Darren White has a 39% Unfavorable Rating.
It is clear from the poll that voters have very strong and negative opinions of both Mayor Tim Keller and Darren White. However, it is the favorable ratings that are the biggest indicator of the level of strength they have with the electorate and who will actually show up to vote for them.
The unfavorable and favorable ratings of all seven candidates compared are:
- Tim Keller’s unfavorable rating is 60%, his favorable rating is 33%and a mere 7% have no opinion of him.
- Darren White’s unfavorable rating is 39% and his favorable rating is 35% and26% have no opinion of him.
- Louis Sanchez’s unfavorable rating 24% and his favorable rating is 16% and 60%have no opinion of him.
- Eddie Varela’s unfavorable rating is 16%, his favorable rating is 9%and 74% have no opinion of him.
- Daniel Chavez’s unfavorable rating is 13%, his favorable rating is 6% and81% having no opinion of him.
- Alex Uballez’s unfavorable rating is 12%, his favorable rating is 19% and 69% having no opinion of him.
- Mayling Armijo’s unfavorable rating is10%, her favorable rating is 8% and 81% having no opinion of her.
Based on the poll Democrat Mayor Keller as the incumbent is likely to get into the runoff given his 33% favorable rating which likely represents his base of support among progressive Democrats who will vote for him no matter his unfavorable rating and because of his progressive policies dealing with the homeless and his strong opposition to President Trump and federal cutbacks.
Based on the poll Republican Darren White is likely to get into the runoff given his 35% favorable rating which likely represents his base of support among Conservatives and MAGA Republicans because his stance on immigration, the homeless and crime.
PREVIOUS POLL AND SURVEY RECALLED
On November 2, 2022, the Albuquerque Journal reported and released the results of an opinion poll it commissioned that reported that Mayor Tim Keller at the time had a 40% disapproval rating and 33% approval rating.
https://www.abqjournal.com/news/local/article_ecd8f917-ee43-5ce4-b235-85c1a34a2b03.html
On April 16, 2024, the results of the annual City of Albuquerque Citizen Perception Survey were released. The City’s Citizens Satisfaction survey found as follows:
- 63% of citizens are concerned over the direction the city is going.
- 61% “disagree” and 35%“agree” that “the Albuquerque City Government is responsive to our community needs.”
Both survey findings directly reflect on the job performance of Mayor Tim Keller.
https://www.cabq.gov/progress/documents/albuquerque-yearly-survey-2023.pdf
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
The fact that Mayor Keller is the only candidate to secure $755,946 in public finance and a measured finance committee that has raised another $132,350.00 to promote him for a grand total of $888,296 is a testament of the power of Keller’s incumbency. Keller has $888,296 that will be used to promote his candidacy while all the other candidates combined have raised $537,310. It is clear evidence Keller is running against a very weak field of candidates given that Keller was the only one who qualified for public finance. The measured fiancé committee will likely raise thousands more to promote Keller and to tear down his opponents. With the November 4 fastly approaching expect Keller to get very aggressive and go negative with his opponents given his unfavorable ratings.
Some politcal pundits and columnists are saying that if Keller’s opponents are unable to raise sufficient campaign donations, there is a possibility that Keller could capture 50% of the vote and avoid a runoff election between the top two finishers. That is likely wishful thinking given the poll results and given just how unpopular Keller really is amongst voters. Keller will need every penny of his public finance and the measured finance committee promotion to deal with and overcome his low approval ratings as the campaign drags on over the summer and into the fall and his opponents hit him hard on the issues until November 4.
Mayor Keller is a known quantity with extremely low approval ratings. No amount of money spent on his behalf to get him elected to a third term may be enough to reform his image in the eyes of voters who have simply had enough of his self-promotion ways with very little accomplished. Notwithstanding, all of Keller’s opponents are relegated to scrambling for private financing unless they are wealthy enough to self-finance. Only Daniel Chavez is believed to be able to self-finance but it’s still unknown to what extent he is willing to spend of his own money.
“ANY ONE BUT KELLER”
City Hall observers and political pundits are saying the election is Keller’s to lose. What they fail to take into account is the “any one but Keller movement”. It can also be called “Keller Fatique” which is what happened with “Chavez Fatique ” when Democrat Mayor Marty Chavez attempted to seek a third consecutive four-year term in 2009 and he lost to Republican Richard Berry with former Democrat State Senator Richard Romero splitting the Democrat vote with Chavez. The fact that the poll revealed that all 6 of Keller’s opponents beat Keller in a runoff is evidence that there is an “any one but Keller movement”. Simply put, people want change.
The “any one but Keller movement ” comes into sharp focus when the local news stations publish stories on FACEBOOK where Keller is interviewed at length about his candidacy and literally hundreds of public comments are made that are all negative and berating Keller for his failure to address and solve the city’s problems. Candidates who are running for city council and who were going door to door to collect nominating signatures and $5.00 for their own candidacies reported they were encountering strong anti-Keller sentiment at the doors with them being asked questions if they support Keller for reelection. One confidential source said they witnessed Keller himself encountering severe push back when he attended weekend public events to collect nominating petition signatures. People refused to sign his petition and refused to donate a $5 qualifying donation for public finance an insisted they would never vote for him again.
FINAL COMMENTARY
Long time and highly respected political pollster Brian Sanderoff summed it up better than anyone:
“Tim Keller starts out with a big advantage because he was the only candidate who qualified for public campaign financing. That means he received nearly $750,000 of taxpayer money to help out in his campaign, but what counts on election day is the number of votes, not the number of dollars.”
The link to a quoted or partially relied upon news source article is here: