On April 22, with less than six weeks before the June 4 primary for Governor, KRQE News 13 reported on an independent poll it commissioned taken by Emerson College. The poll results are as follows:
DEMOCRATS
KRQE’s Emerson College poll revealed that Deb Haaland has a commanding lead of 16% over Sam Bregman with Haaland securing 40% to Bregman’s 24%. According to the poll, 40% of Democrats and Independents polled said they plan to vote for Haaland, while 24% say they will vote for Bregman. A whopping 36% of Democrats say they are undecided on who they will vote for Democratic primary on June 2.
REPUBLICANS
KRQE’s Emerson College poll revealed that Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull leads with 21%, former New Mexico Human Services Secretary and Ultra Health CEO Duke Rodriguez secured 10%, former New Mexico Judicial Standards Commission Chair Doug Turner secured 9%. A whopping 61% of Republican voters in the poll are undecided.
TRUMP AND OTHER ISSUES
The KRQE Emerson College poll found that 56% of respondents disapprove of the job the President Trump is doing, something that will no doubt affect the Republican nominee in the November general election should he endorse. Quoting the Emerson College Poll:
“Healthcare is the top issue for both Democrats (29%) and Republicans (21%), while the economy is the top issue for independents at 23%, followed by education and healthcare at 15%, respectively.
One in two likely voters (50%) say they feel less safe today than they did one year ago, 13% feel more safe, and 37% report no difference.
President Trump holds a 37% approval rating among likely primary voters, while 56% disapprove of the job he is doing in office.
Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham holds a 40% approval rating, while 42% disapprove of the job she is doing.
Nearly half of voters (49%) disapprove of the job Governor Lujan Grisham is doing running the Children Youth and Families Department (CYFD), while 18% approve, and 28% are neutral.
A plurality of voters (46%) would vote yes on a constitutional amendment revoking the governor’s power to appoint the head of the CYFD, while 22% would vote no, and 32% are not sure.”
The link to review the full Emerson College poll can be found in the postscript.
METHODOLOGY
The Emerson poll of 1,000 likely primary voters including 250 independents who for the first time are able to vote in state party primary elections. The 250 or 25% of those polled reflects their state wide registration. Bregman does best with men and independent voters.
A few political gossip analysts are predicting that Independent’s turnout for the primary will be much lower at 5% to 10% of the voters but that is questionable given the amount of money being spent in campaign ads.
The Emerson College Polling New Mexico survey was conducted April 18-19, 2026. The sample of New Mexico likely primary voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percent. The Democratic Primary consists of n=564 likely primary voters with a credibility interval of +/-4.1%. The Republican Primary consists of n=436 likely primary voters with a credibility interval of +/-4.7%
MILLIONS RAISED BY DEMOCRATS, REPUBLICAN FUNDRASING LAGS WAY BEHIND
HAALAND vs. BREGMAN FUNDRAISING
On April 15, campaign finance reports were released that showed Haaland had raised around $4.18 million in the previous six months, outpacing the $1.21 million in contributions for Bregman in the same time period from early October of last year to early April this year. According to information on the New Mexico Secretary of State’s website, Haaland’s overall earnings this election cycle are around $11 million, with Bregman under $4 million.
Former Secretary of the Interior and congresswoman Deb Haaland released a report that was 12,882 pages long, filled with tens of thousands of reported donations from all over the country suggesting that she is a national figure within the Democratic party.
Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman released a report that was 353 pages long, covering the last six months of campaign contributions. Bregman reported raising more than $1.2 million during the reporting period. He has now received nearly $3.7 million since launching his campaign for governor. More than 80% of his contributions came from New Mexico residents. Most of Haaland’s donations came from out of state.
RODRIGUEZ vs. TURNER vs. HULL FUNDRAISING
Among the three Republicans running for governor, cannabis entrepreneur Duke Rodriguez reported making a $500,000 contribution to his own campaign and said he would likely make another similar donation before the June primary election. The $500,000 donation made up roughly 99% of Rodriguez’s total contributions.
Small business owner Doug Turner of Albuquerque also reported raising slightly more than $500,000 in contributions, though in his case the money did not come from his own bank account. Turner’s largest donors included former state GOP chairwoman Debbie Maestas and several oil industry officials, including state Rep. Mark Murphy of Roswell and the Jalapeno Corp. that is owned by former party chairman Harvey Yates Jr.
Gregg Hull received the most support from state Republican Party delegates at the GOP’s pre-primary convention held in Ruidoso in March. Hull reported getting nearly $145,000 in contributions. That brought his total contribution amount since launching his campaign last year to more than $474,000. Hull, who is stepping down as Rio Rancho’s mayor this year, has spent roughly half that amount, primarily on campaign consultants and TV ads.
Links to quoted or relied upon news sources are here:
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
There has been a dramatic decline is support amongst Democrats for Deb Haaland over Sam Bregman, however she still has a commanding lead and the advantage in fundraising. Notwithstanding, the 36% of “undecided” Democrats is exceptionally high given the fact the primary is less than 6 weeks away.
In March 2025, Deb Haaland polled at 63% over Sam Bregman’s 14%. In October 2025, Deb Haaland polled at 54% to Sam Bregman at 22%. In February, 2026, Deb Haaland polled at 56% to Bregman’s 26%. Again in February, 2026 Deb Haaland polled at 46% to Bregman’s 25%.
The April 2026 Emerson poll now shows Deb Haaland with a commanding 49% to Bregman’s 24% with political analysists now suggesting that the race will be a lot closer than originally thought. The fact that Haaland is now below the magical 50% when at first she was at 63% and with 36% of Democrats still undecided dictates that the race is far from over and Bregman is gaining traction but to what extend he will close the gap remains to be seen.
DA Sam Bregman has initiated aggressive TV ads promoting his pledge to prosecute ICE agents who violate state law, criticising Haaland’s refusal to debate him and pointing out he was not in the Jeffry Epstein files while Haaland was for taking a trip to a fundraiser on a plane owned by Epstein. Bregman is now running ads promoting his policy positions on crime, health care and education.
Haaland for her part has increased her media buys considerably promoting her policies.
With respect to the Republicans in the race, there has been very little in the way money spent to promote their candidacies.
POSTSCRIPT
The link to review the Emerson College poll is here: