On April 26 the Albuquerque Journal released a poll on the June 2 New Mexico contested primary for Governor. The Journal released its poll results only for the contested race in the Democratic Party primary between former Biden Cabinet Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman. The Journal announced that on Sunday, May 2, it would release the poll results in the highly contested Republican primary between Republicans Greg Hull, Duke Rodriquez and Doug Turner.
The 2026 primary election is New Mexico’s first ever “semi-open” primary under the newly enacted state law that allows independent voters to cast their votes in either the Democratic or Republican primary without having to change their party affiliation. The Journal poll was taken of 470 registered Democrats and 64 Independents or unaffiliated voters likely to vote in the June 2 Democratic primary.
The sole question asked of the 470 Democrats and 64 independents who said they were likely to vote in the Democratic primary was this:
“If the Democratic primary election for Governor was held today, and the candidates were Deb Haaland and Sam Bregman, who would you vote for?”
THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES FOR GOVERNOR
Debra Haaland is the former U.S. Interior Cabinet Secretary under President Joe Biden and the former Congresswoman for the Albuquerque area. She is considered to have a national base of financial support having raised $11.1 million in her bid to succeed outgoing Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham. Haaland’s run for New Mexico Governor is historic in that if elected, she would be the first Native American female governor ever elected in the nation.
Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, like Haaland, is a former Democratic State Party Chair. Bregman was appointed Bernalillo County District Attorney by Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham in 2023 to fill the unexpired term of Raul Torrez who was elected Attorney General in 2022. Bregman was elected to a four-year term as DA in 2024. Prior to becoming DA, Bregman was a prominent criminal defense attorney and trial attorney and also served many years ago as a Bernalillo County Assistant District Attorney. According to information on the New Mexico Secretary of State’s website, Bregman’s overall campaign fundraising this election cycle is upwards of $4 million.
ALBUQUERQUE JOURNAL POLL RESULTS
The Journal poll found that 52% of proven Democratic and Independent voters surveyed said they planned to vote for Haaland while 30% said they planned to vote for Sam Bregman. The remaining 18% of the total polled said they were undecided.
According to the poll, the key to Haaland securing 52% of those surveyed was her strong support among woman, Anglos and self-reported liberal or progressive voters and with highly educated voters.
Haaland’s support was particularly strong among women, who preferred her over Bregman by a 2-to-1 margin.
According to the Journal poll, Anglo voters were much more likely to back Haaland than were Hispanic voters, who were more narrowly divided in their views.
There was a very notable difference among surveyed voters by education level. 59% of voters with a college or graduate degree said they planned to vote for Haaland as compared to just 25% who expressed support for Bregman.
Bregman’s support levels were higher among voters without a college degree, though he still trailed behind Haaland among such voters.
When it came to voters’ political ideology, Haaland had a commanding lead among self-described progressive and liberal voters, with the support of 65% of such voters as compared to just 24% for Bregman.
Bregman has tried to position himself as a far more moderate candidate statewide to Haaland and he has struggled to make inroads among the Democratic Party Progressives. Bregman, who has touted his crime-fighting credentials in his TV ads, fared better among self-described moderates and conservatives who plan to vote in the Democratic primary.
According to the poll, Bregman led Haaland among voters surveyed in New Mexico’s east side which is considered far more conservative. According to the poll, Bregman trailed behind Haaland in the more highly populated Albuquerque Metropolitan Area as well as the traditional Democratic stronghold of northern New Mexico.
Bregman, who has touted his crime-fighting credentials in his TV ads, has fared better among self-described moderates and conservatives who plan to vote in the Democratic primary.
POLL METHODOLOGY IN “SEMI-OPEN” PRIMARY ELECTION
The Journal Poll was conducted from April 17 to April 24. It is based on a statewide random sample of 470 registered Democrats who cast ballots in the 2020, 2022, and/or 2024 Democratic Primary elections, and a sample of Democrats who registered to vote since January 2025, who said they are very likely to vote in the upcoming election.
Democrats made up 88% of the Journal Poll’s sample size, with Independents who said they planned to cast a ballot in the Democratic primary making up the remaining 12% of the sample. The Journal polled a total of 534 and included 64 independent or unaffiliated voters with proven voter history, who said they are very likely to vote in the upcoming Democratic Primary election.
Brian Sanderoff, the President of Research and Polling who does political polling exclusively for the Albuquerque Journal, said this:
“When it comes to adding independent voters for the Primary poll, we are entering a new and unknown world, due to the statutory changes. For the Democratic Primary in the Governor’s race, 12% of the sample is among unaffiliated voters who said they will vote in the Democratic Primary. Of this group, 31% said they are undecided in the Governor’s race. “
It’s unclear how many independent voters will cast ballots in the June 2 primary race, as their turnout has lagged behind Democrats and Republicans in recent election cycles. The race will likely tighten if more independents vote.
The total polling sample is 534, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.
The sample was stratified by race/ethnicity and county and weighted by education level, based on traditional voting patterns to ensure a more representative sample.
All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to those who did not initially answer the phone.
Both cellphone numbers (96%) and landlines (4%) of likely Primary election voters were used. The Journal polling relied on more expensive but also more accurate professional cell phone interviews.
The links to quoted or relied upon news sources are here:
https://www.pressreader.com/usa/albuquerque-journal/20260426/281479283011420
KRQE EMERSON COLLEGE POLL RECALLED
On April 22, with less than six weeks before the June 4 primary for Governor, KRQE News 13 reported on an independent poll it commissioned and taken by Emerson College. The poll results are as follows:
KRQE’s Emerson College poll revealed that Deb Haaland has a commanding lead of 16% over Sam Bregman with Haaland securing 40% to Bregman’s 24%. According to the poll, 40% of Democrats and Independents polled said they plan to vote for Haaland, while 24% say they will vote for Bregman. A whopping 36% of Democrats say they are undecided on who they will vote for Democratic primary on June 2.
EMERSON COLLEGE POLL METHODOLOGY
The Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely primary voters including 250 independents who for the first time are able to vote in state party primary elections. The 250 or 25% of those polled reflects their state wide registration. Bregman does best with men and independent voters in the Emerson College poll.
A few political analysts are predicting that Independent’s turnout for the primary will be much lower at 5% to 10% of the voters but that is questionable given the amount of money being spent in campaign ads and the attention the race has generated.
The Emerson College Polling New Mexico survey was conducted April 18-19, 2026. The sample of New Mexico likely primary voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percent. The Democratic Primary consists of n=564 likely primary voters with a credibility interval of +/-4.1%. The Republican Primary consists of n=436 likely primary voters with a credibility interval of +/-4.7%
RACE HEATS UP BETWEEN HAALAND AND BREGMAN
DA Sam Bregman began his television ad campaign with highly aggressive TV ads promoting his pledge to prosecute ICE agents who violate state law. Bregman has also repeatedly criticized Haaland for her refusal to participate in in televised debates.
Bregman has substantially increased his attacks against Haaland highlighting Haaland’s appearance in the Epstein files due to a private flight she took in 2014 while running on the Democratic gubernatorial ticket with Gary King. Haaland’s campaign has dismissed the insinuations as a “false attack,” insisting she did not know the plane was chartered by Epstein and had no relationship with the disgraced financier, who died in 2019.
Bregman has substantially increased his criticism of Haaland for posting information on her campaign website about properties owned by Bregman where he and members of his family live. Bregman confronted Haaland personally at an event asserting that Haaland endangered his life and his family lives for politcal gain, and in particular his 88 year old mother and his daughter who live in the homes he owns. Haaland for her part denied the accusation proclaiming the information was public record, but her campaign took down the information soon after being confronted by Bregman
Haaland has vowed to push back against President Donald Trump’s policies if elected governor, with her campaign’s first TV ad saying she would “stand up to the billionaires rigging the system against us” proclaiming Bregman would not given his own wealth.
HAALAND’S COMMANDING LEAD OVER BREGMAN IN FUNDRAISING
On April 15, campaign finance reports were released that showed Haaland had raised around $4.18 million in the previous six months, outpacing the $1.21 million in contributions for Bregman in the same time period from early October of last year to early April this year. According to information on the New Mexico Secretary of State’s website, Haaland’s overall earnings this election cycle are around $11 million, with Bregman’s under $4 million.
Former Secretary of the Interior and congresswoman Deb Haaland released a report that was 12,882 pages long, filled with tens of thousands of reported donations from all over the country suggesting that she is a national figure within the Democratic party.
Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman released a report that was 353 pages long, covering the last six months of campaign contributions. Bregman reported raising more than $1.2 million during the reporting period. He has now received nearly $3.7 million since launching his campaign for governor. More than 80% of his contributions came from New Mexico residents. Most of Haaland’s donations came from out of state.
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
It is abundantly clear that the manner, method and the number of Democrats and Independents polled that explains the major difference between the Emerson Poll (Deb Haaland 40%, Sam Bregman 24%, Undecided, 36%) and the Albuquerque Journal Poll (Haaland 52%, Bregman 30%, Undecided 18%). Both polls were conducted essentially at the same time. The KRQE Emerson College Poll was conducted April 18-19, 2026 while the Journal poll was was conducted from April 17 to April 24. The Albuquerque Journal is not expected to do any more polling, but it is more likely than not others will.
Emerson college polled a total of 1,000 likely primary voters, including 250 independents, which was almost double of the total polled by the Journal. The Journal polled a total of 534 and included only 64 independent or unaffiliated voters while Emerson polled 250 Independents. The Journal poll relied on more expensive but also more accurate professional cell phone interviews which explains the Journal poll smaller sample. The biggest question is which of polls is to believed? The answer to the question is both and each must be considered in their own context.
As is the case with any and all political polls they are only a “snapshot in time” subject to rapid change and events that unfold. What polls people choose to believe must always be questioned as to accuracy. Exclusive reliance on any one poll is a mistake often made by those running for office and their supporters.
The two conclusions that can be made from both polls is that Haaland is leading Bregman, she is on a trajectory to win the Democratic Party primary, and there still remains a high percentage of undecided voters. (Emerson poll undecideds 36%, Journal Poll 18% total poll undecides and 36% Independent undecided per Sanderoff)
The Journal poll is the first poll in the race the Journal has taken. It does not take into account the decline in support amongst Democrats for Deb Haaland over Sam Bregman over the course of many months of campaigning. Review of other polls known to have been taken reflect that in March 2025, Deb Haaland polled at 63% over Sam Bregman’s 14%. In October 2025, Deb Haaland polled at 54% to Sam Bregman at 22%. In February, 2026, Deb Haaland polled at 56% to Bregman’s 26%. Again in February, 2026 Deb Haaland polled at 46% to Bregman’s 25%.
The April 15 Emerson College poll released showed Deb Haaland with a commanding 49% to Bregman’s 24%, but with a whopping 36% of Democrats saying they were undecided on who they will vote for Democratic primary on June 2. The April 26 Journal poll release found Haaland 52%, Bregman 30% and the Undecided still at 18%.
The three major factors that will decide the final outcome in the Democratic primary for Governor are:
- The extent of independents voting and breaking for Bregman or Haaland.
- Campaign money spent over the next four weeks.
- Unexpected campaign mistakes.
What must be emphasized is that not a single vote has been cast. Heavy in person-early voting is over two weeks away. Sam Bregman still has time, although short as it is, to make inroads with Democrats and Independents statewide and perhaps retool and become even more aggressive to chip away Haaland’s statewide lead. Deb Haaland for her part needs to avoid at all cost making serious campaign mistakes which she seems to be prone to do as was the case with posting information on her campaign website about properties owned by Bregman where he and members of his family live.
DA Sam Bregman has initiated aggressive TV ads promoting his pledge to prosecute ICE agents who violate state law, criticising Haaland’s refusal to debate him and pointing out he was not in the Jeffry Epstein files while Haaland was for taking a trip to a fundraiser on a plane owned by Epstein.
Bregman is now running ads promoting his policy positions on crime, health care and education. Haaland for her part has increased her media buys considerably promoting her policies and refuting Bregman’s accusations.
The bottom line is that well over a month remains in a hotly contested race. A full month in a politcal race is an eternity in politics and anything can happen that changes the trajectory of the race.
In the final analysis, the only poll that matters is the final vote in the June 2 primary election.
PLEASE VOTE!!!