On Sunday, October 11, with just 23 days left before the November 3 general election for New Mexico Governor the Albuquerque Journal Published its second and final election poll in the 2026 race for Governor.
The Journal poll found 49% of likely voters surveyed said they plan to vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, who is seeking to become the first Native American woman elected governor in the nation’s history. Meanwhile, 42%of voters said they plan to vote for Republican Gregg Hull, the former Rio Rancho mayor who would be the first Republican to win a statewide race in New Mexico since 2016. The remaining 9% of voters surveyed said they were undecided or did not know who they would vote for in the November general election.
RAW POLLING RESULTS
The raw and demographic poll results are as follows:
PARTY AFFILIATION
Both Deb Haaland and Gregg Hull received strong support from voters of their own political parties.
Deb Haaland garnered 85% of Democrats polled, 7% of Republicans polled who said they plan to vote and 8% of Democrats said they were undecided or did not know who they would vote for.
Gregg Hull garnered 91% of Republicans and only 5% of Democrats who said they plan to vote and 4% of Republicans polled said they were undecided or did not know who they would vote for.
Among Independents polled, who have seen their ranks swell and now make up more than one-quarter of registered New Mexico voters, Deb Haaland secured 48% of Independents to Gregg Hulls 34% and 18% of Independent voters said they were undecided or did not know who they would vote for.
GENDER
Among Female voters polled, Democrat Deb Haaland received 54% support, Republican Greg Hull received 38% and 8% were undecided
Among Male voters polled, Democrat Deb Haaland received 44% support, Republican Greg Hull received 47% and 9% were undecided.
RACE AND ETHNICITY
Amongst Hispanics polled, 53% said they would vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, 36% said they would vote for Republican Gregg Hull, while 11% said they were undecided.
Amongst Anglo/Whites polled, 44% said they would vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, 50% said they would vote for Republican Gregg Hull and 6% said they were Undecided.
NEW MEXICO REGIONS
Looking at the race state wide by region, Democrat Deb Haaland has a significant advantage over Republican Gregg Hull in the Albuquerque metro area and in north central New Mexico area, a traditional Democratic stronghold.
Republican Gregg Hull has a lead in other, less populated parts of the state, including in northwest and southern New Mexico, along with the state’s usually conservative east side.
Voters polled within the Albuquerque Metro area, 49% said they will vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, 40% said they would vote for Republican Gregg Hull and 10% said they were Undecided.
Voters polled within the Las Cruces/Southwest area of the State, 53% said they will vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, 40% said they would vote for Republican Gregg Hull and 7% of those said they were Undecided.
Voters polled in conservative leaning Eastern New Mexico, 29% said they will vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, 60% said they would vote for Republican Gregg Hull and 12% of those polled said they were Undecided.
Voters polled in North Central area of the State, 65% said they will vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, 29% said they would vote for Republican Gregg Hull and 6% of those polled said they were Undecided.
The link to the quoted, unedited Albuquerque Journal article with photos and graphs written by Albuquerque Journal reporter Dan Boyd is here:
ANALYSIS OF FINAL JOURNAL POLL RESULTS
Democrat Deb Haaland’s lead in the October 11 Journal Poll is due to her strong lead among four major voting blocks:
- Female voters
- Hispanic voters
- Independents
- Democratic strongholds
Haaland received the support of 54% of women surveyed as compared to Hulls 38%. Male voters were more evenly split, as they preferred Hull over Haaland by a narrow margin with Hull receiving 47% of the male vote to Haalands 44% of the male vote.
Haaland also had a significant advantage over Hull among Hispanic voters and among other non-Anglo voters, a group that includes Native Americans. Roughly 64% of such voters backed Haaland, compared to 26% for Hull. In contrast, white voters were more likely to vote for Hull with 50% to Haaland’s 44%.
Both candidates had strong support from voters affiliated with their respective political parties. Haaland secured 85% of Democrats polled and Hull secured 91% of Republicans polled amongst Republicans.
Haaland leads Hull among independent voters, a growing voting bloc that includes a large number of younger voters. Among independents polled, 48% said they planned to vote for Haaland compared to 34% for Hull. The remaining 18% of independents said they were undecided or did not know who they planned to vote for.
FINANCIAL ADVANTAGE
Complicating matters for Republican Gregg Hull is Democrat Deb Haaland’s huge financial advantage. Haaland has significantly outraised Hull.
Haaland has raised $17.3 million since launching her campaign last year, compared to roughly $1.9 million for Hull. According to the most recent campaign finance reports, Haaland had upwards of $3.5 million left to Hull’s $600,000 to spend in the last month of the campaign.
Last week a political committee backed by the Democratic Governors Association launched a TV ad blitz in New Mexico that attempts to link Hull to President Donald Trump. Hull has described the attacks as an attempt to distract from hot-button issues, but the national Republican Party and the Republican Governor’s Association has not come to Hull’s rescue in any meaningful financial way and time is simply running out to make a difference.
METHODOLOGY
“The Journal Poll was conducted from October 1 through October 9. It is based on a statewide random sample of 1,125 voters who cast ballots in the 2022 and/or 2024 general elections, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since January 2025 and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election. The total sample of 1,125 voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.
The sample was stratified by county within congressional district and weighted by race/ethnicity and party affiliation based on traditional voting patterns in New Mexico general elections, to ensure a more representative sample. All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone. Both cellphone numbers (97%) and landlines (3%) of likely general election voters were used.”
The link to the quoted or relied upon Albuquerque Journal article written by Journal staff reporter Dan Boyd with photos and graphics is here:
RECALLING KOB 4, SURVEY USA POLL
On October 5, one month before the November 3 general election, KOB-4 released the results of a scientific poll taken of 800 registered and likely voters in the ’26 New Mexico Governor’s race between Democrat Deb Haaland and Republican Greg Hull. The Poll was conducted exclusively for KOB-4 by Survey USA. The poll was taken from September 25 to September 30. The poll reveals that Democrat Deb Haaland leads Republican Gregg Hull 47% to 41% in the race for Governor with 12% of likely voters undecided.
The links to quoted or relied upon news sources are here:
https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/kob-poll-finds-haaland-leading-hull-by-6-points-in-head-to-head-race/
https://results.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6e6ded19-6ad8-4379-8fa9-6a15dfa99052
RECALLING FIRST ALBUQUERQUE JOURNAL POLL
On Sunday, August 30, the Albuquerque Journal Published its first poll in the 2026 race for Governor. The Journal poll found 49% of likely voters surveyed said they plan to vote for Democrat Deb Haaland. Meanwhile, 43% of voters said they plan to vote for Republican Gregg Hull, the former Rio Rancho mayor who would be the first Republican to win a statewide race in New Mexico since 2016. The remaining 8% of voters surveyed said they had not yet decided on who they would support in the November general election. The overall 6-point margin separating Deb Haaland and Greg Hull in the Journal Poll mirrors the final margin of New Mexico’s 2022 gubernatorial race between Democrat Incumbent Governor Lujan Grisham and Republican Mark Ronchetti.
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
The two Albuquerque Journal Polls and the one KOB 4 poll showing that Deb Haaland is leading Greg Hull by 6% or 7% in the three polls but falling short of the magical 50% plus one margin to win reflects that the race for Governor is very,very close to being over and the trajectory of the race still remains that Deb Haaland will win decisively on November 3. To win outright, Haaland has to only secure 1% of the 9% undecided. For Hull to turn things around and win he would have to secure all 9% of the undecided which is not at all likely. The 6% to 7% Haaland lead in the three polls is essentially identical to the margin Democrat Governor Michelle Lujan defeated Republican Mark Ronchetti in her bid for a second four year term. In 2022, Governor Lujan Grisham did not garner 50% in polling until late in October, 2022.
“DEBATING THE DEBATES” THAT NO ONE CARED ABOUT
Hull generated a lot of media attention and tried to make a big deal alleging Deb Haaland refused to debate him or that she refused to reach an agreement as to when a debate could be scheduled. On October 8, Channel 4 went so far with holding a “debate” with Hull only standing next to an empty podium while reporters asked Hull questions. Hull and the MAGA Republicans were hoping that Haaland’s failure to debate would move the needle in Hull’s direction. Republican Gregg Hull and the MAGA Republican crowd were seriously mistaken if they believed Democrats and Independent’s will vote for Hull simply because Haaland did not debate Hull.
All three poll results and Haaland’s lead revealed the harsh reality for Hull that it did not matter and no one really cared if Deb Haaland debated Hull. Debates are beneficial, but no candidate is obligated to participate for the sake of satisfying the opposition demands for debating nor the media’s schedules.
Ugly hate, hostility, nasty criticism and outright racism were thrown at Deb Haaland on social media over her refusal to debate, especially by the MAGA crowd as they degraded and questioned Haaland’s intelligence, competency and suggesting she was scared to debate. Simply put Deb Haaland played “Political Rope a Dope” with the MAGA crowd, Greg Hull and the news media, especially Channel 4 and the Albuquerque Journal and it drove them nuts.
HULL’S UPHILL BATTLE CONTINUES
Simply put, Republican Gregg Hull is facing an uphill battle in a Democratic leaning state. Haaland is the former U.S. Interior secretary under President Joe Biden and a former congresswoman. Haaland is a national figure with respect to her fundraising ability and the historical nature of her candidacy and the possibility of being the first native American who would be elected a governor. On the other hand, Gregg Hull is a virtual unknown throughout most of the State even though he was Mayor or Rio Rancho.
Haaland has tremendous support among women, Hispanics, Independent voters and highly educated voters and taken together they will decide the election. Then there is the matter of the national political mood that clearly favors Democrats thanks in large part to President Trump’s disastrous presidency, the Iran war he has started and his disastrous handling of the economy.
Haaland’s candidacy has been significantly bolstered in New Mexico with the recent endorsement by former Democratic President Barack Obama. The link the Obama endorsement video is here:
As evidenced by Deb Haaland’s Democratic primary victory of 72.3% (156,861 votes) over Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman’s 27.7% (60,189), Democrats are highly motivated to vote for Deb Haaland and its highly unlikely they will change their minds and vote for Republican Hull. President Trump’s extremely high negatives in the state will also have a major impact motivating voter turn out in a deep blue Democrat state. In the final analysis, it will be a combination of the independent voters, the progressive voters and the female and Hispanic voters, along with an expected high Democratic voter turnout because of Trump’s negatives, that will result in Deb Haaland being elected our next Governor.
Election day is November 3. Early voting dates began October 6 and goes to October 31, 2026 (county clerk offices October 6–16; expanded locations October 17–31; hours vary by location). Please vote!
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