On May 3, the Albuquerque Journal released its poll on the June 2 New Mexico contested Republican primary race for Governor between Republicans Greg Hull, Doug Turner and Duke Rodriquez. Greg D. Hull is the former Mayor of Rio Rancho, Doug Turner is a small business owner from Albuquerque and Duke Rodriguez is a cannabis entrepreneur and a former New Mexico Human Services Cabinet Secretary under then Republican Governor Gary Johnson.
The sole question asked of the 477 Republicans and 51 independents who said they were likely to vote in the Democratic primary was this:
“If the Republican primary election for Governor was held today, and the candidates were Greg D. Hull, Doug W. Turner and Duke Rodriquez who would you vote for?”
ALBUQUERQUE JOURNAL POLL RESULTS IN REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
The Journal poll found former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull leading his two Republican rivals with 30%, with Doug Turner at 21% and Duke Rodriguez at 9% among Republican and Independent voters who plan to cast a ballot in the June 2 election. The Journal poll found that whopping 40% of New Mexico Republicans have not decided who to support in the state’s open race for governor.
Brian Sanderoff, the president of Albuquerque-based Research & Polling Inc., which conducted the poll and that exclusively polls for the Journal, noted that none of the three Republican candidates vying for their party’s nomination have held statewide or congressional office before, which could contribute to their limited name recognition around New Mexico. Sanderoff said this about the poll results:
“Republican voters are still getting to know their three candidates for governor, so the race is up for grabs.”
Thus far, the three Republicans have avoided attacking one another. They largely agreed on key issues during a televised debate, though they did diverge on the future of the state fairgrounds. Duke Rodriguez is the only Republican candidate thus far that has been running TV ads promoting his platform and policies.
REGIONAL VIEWS
The Journal Poll, unlike in the Democratic primary contest poll, did not find big swings in voters’ preferences in the Republican primary based on their self-described political ideology or education levels.
The Journal poll did find significant differences based on region. Former Mayor Hull had a commanding lead over his Republican rivals in both the Albuquerque metro area and in the state’s north-central region. The advantage is more likely than not due to Hull having served as Rio Rancho’s mayor for 12 years before stepping down and not running for reelection as Rio Rancho Mayor to run for Governor.
Notwithstanding, former Rio Rancho Mayor Hull trailed Turner among voters who live in Eastern New Mexico which traditionally is the conservative part of the state where the agriculture and oil industries have extensive political influence. The poll found that 27% of Eastern New Mexico voters surveyed said they planned to vote for Turner, compared to 19% for Hull.
The poll found that in the Las Cruces and the Southwestern New Mexico region, more than half the voters were still undecided.
The poll found that when it comes to gender differences, both male and female voters were more likely to support Hull than either Turner or Rodriguez, but women were more narrowly split than were men.
INDEPENDENT VOTERS
This year’s primary election marks New Mexico’s first-ever semi-open primary under a law approved last year that allows independent voters to cast a ballot in either the Democratic or Republican primary without having to change their party affiliation.
While independent voters, or those who decline to affiliate with a political party, have seen their numbers grow in recent months and now makes up roughly 26% of New Mexico’s total voting population, it’s unclear how many of them will ultimately vote in the June primary election. For that very reason, Republicans made up 90% of the Journal Poll’s sample size, with independents who said they planned to cast a ballot in the GOP primary making up the remaining 10% of the sample.
Rodriguez posted the strongest support among independent voters than he did among registered Republicans with 14% of such voters surveyed saing they planned to vote for Rodriguez. In contrast, support levels did not vary for Hull and Turner based on party affiliation.
POLL METHODOLOGY
The 2026 primary election is New Mexico’s first ever “semi-open” primary under the newly enacted state law that allows independent voters to cast their votes in either the Democratic or Republican primary without having to change their party affiliation.
The Journal Poll of the Republican Primary was conducted from April 24 to May 1. The Journal poll was taken of 477 registered Republicans who cast ballots in the 2020, 2022, and/or 2024 Republican primary elections, and a sample of Republicans who registered to vote since January 2025, who said they are very likely to vote in the upcoming election.
The poll also included 51 independent (or unaffiliated) voters with proven voter history, who said they are very likely to vote in the upcoming Republican primary election. The total poll sample was 528, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3%. The poll’s margin of error grows for subsamples. The sample was stratified by race/ethnicity, county and age, based on traditional voting patterns to ensure a more representative sample.
All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to those who did not initially answer the phone. Both cellphone numbers (96%) and landlines (4%) of likely primary election voters were used.
The link to read the full Albuquerque Journal article quoted or relied upon is here:
https://www.koat.com/article/gubernatorial-race-new-mexico/71206659
RECALLING JOURNAL POLL ON DEMOCRATIC PARTY PRIMARY
On Sunday, April 26, the Albuquerque Journal released its poll on the June 2 contested race for Governor in the Democratic Party Primary between former Biden Cabinet Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman.
The Journal poll found that 52% of proven Democratic and Independent voters surveyed said they planned to vote for Haaland while 30% said they planned to vote for Sam Bregman. The remaining 18% of the total polled said they were undecided.
KRQE EMERSON COLLEGE POLL
On April 22 KRQE News 13 reported on an independent poll it commissioned taken by Emerson College. The Emerson College poll was of 1,000 likely primary voters including 250 independents who for the first time are able to vote in state party primary elections. The Emerson College poll was conducted April 18-19.
The Emerson College poll results were as follows:
DEMOCRATS
KRQE’s Emerson College poll revealed that Deb Haaland had a commanding lead of 16% over Sam Bregman with Haaland securing 40% to Bregman’s 24%. According to the poll, 40% of Democrats and Independents polled said they plan to vote for Haaland, while 24% say they will vote for Bregman. A whopping 36% of Democrats say they are undecided on who they will vote for Democratic primary on June 2.
REPUBLICANS
KRQE’s Emerson College poll revealed that Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull lead s with 21%, former New Mexico Human Services Secretary and Ultra Health CEO Duke Rodriguez secured 10%, former New Mexico Judicial Standards Commission Chair Doug Turner secured 9%. A whopping 61% of Republican voters in the poll are undecided.
MILLIONS RAISED BY DEMOCRATS, REPUBLICAN FUNDRASING LAGS WAY BEHIND
HAALAND vs. BREGMAN FUNDRAISING
On April 15, campaign finance reports were released that showed Haaland had raised around $4.18 million in the previous six months, outpacing the $1.21 million in contributions for Bregman in the same time period from early October of last year to early April this year.
According to information on the New Mexico Secretary of State’s website, Haaland’s overall campaign fundraising this election cycle has been upwards of $11 million, with Bregman under $4 million.
Former Secretary of the Interior and congresswoman Deb Haaland released a report that was 12,882 pages long, filled with tens of thousands of reported donations from all over the country suggesting that she is a national figure within the Democratic party.
Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman released a report that was 353 pages long, covering the last six months of campaign contributions. Bregman reported raising more than $1.2 million during the reporting period. He has now received nearly $3.7 million in contributions since launching his campaign for governor.
More than 80% of Bregman’s contributions came from New Mexico residents. Most of Haaland’s donations came from out of state.
RODRIGUEZ vs. TURNER vs. HULL FUNDRAISING
Among the three Republicans running for governor, cannabis entrepreneur Duke Rodriguez is attempting to self-finance his campaign and reported making a $500,000 contribution to his own campaign and said he would likely make another similar donation before the June primary election. The $500,000 donation made up roughly 99% of Rodriguez’s total contributions.
Small business owner Doug Turner of Albuquerque also reported raising slightly more than $500,000 in campaign contributions, though in his case the money did not come from his own bank account. Turner’s largest donors included former state GOP chairwoman Debbie Maestas and several oil industry officials, including state Rep. Mark Murphy of Roswell and the Jalapeno Corp. that is owned by former party chairman Harvey Yates Jr.
Gregg Hull received the most support from state Republican Party delegates at the GOP’s pre-primary convention held in Ruidoso in March. Hull reported getting nearly $145,000 in contributions. That brought his total contribution amount since launching his campaign last year to more than $474,000. Hull, who is stepping down as Rio Rancho’s mayor this year, has spent roughly half that amount, primarily on campaign consultants and TV ads.
Links to quoted or relied upon news sources are here:
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
What cannot be over emphasized is that not a single vote has been cast. Heavy in person-early voting is one week away. As is the case with any and all political polls they are only a “snapshot in time” subject to rapid change and events that unfold. What polls people choose to believe must always be questioned as to accuracy. Exclusive reliance on any one poll is a mistake often made by those running for office and their supporters.
REPUBLICLAN CANDIDATES
The conclusions that can be drawn from the Journal poll on the Republican side is that Mayor Hull thus far has a solid lead with 30% over his opponents Turner with 21% and Rodriguez with 9%. However, the race is still wide open given the whopping 40% of undecided voters.
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
The conclusions that can be drawn from the Journal Poll on the Democratic side is that Haaland is on a trajectory to win the Democratic Party primary leading with 52% to Bregman’s 30% but there still remains a high percentage of undecided voters at 18% in the Journal poll and as high as 36% undecided if you believe the KRQE Emerson College poll.
The Journal poll is the first poll in the race for governor the Journal has taken. It does not take into account the decline in support amongst Democrats for Deb Haaland over Sam Bregman over the course of many months of campaigning. Review of other polls known to have been taken reflect that in March 2025, Deb Haaland polled at 63% over Sam Bregman’s 14%. In October 2025, Deb Haaland polled at 54% to Sam Bregman at 22%. In February, 2026, Deb Haaland polled at 56% to Bregman’s 26%. Again in February, 2026 Deb Haaland polled at 46% to Bregman’s 25%. The KRQ Emerson College poll released on April 22 had Haalan securing 40% to Bregman’s 24% and 36% of Democrats saying they are undecided
Sam Bregman still has upwards of month, although short as it is, to make inroads with Democrats and Independents statewide and perhaps retool and become even more aggressive to chip away Haaland’s statewide lead for an upset.
Deb Haaland for her part needs to avoid at all cost making serious campaign mistakes which she seems to be prone to do as was the case with posting information on her campaign website about properties owned by Bregman where he and members of his family live.
FINAL COMMENTS
Simply put, it will be a steep climb for any one of the three Republicans running to win the general election in November. The two biggest problems for any one of the 3 Republicans who is nominated to run in the November 4 general election for Governor against either Haaland or Bregman are history and lack of campaign fundraising.
In the last 30 years, New Mexicans have only elected Republicans Gary Johnson and Susana Martinez to the Governor’s Office each serving two four year terms for a total of 16 years. Today, New Mexico is considered “solid blue” Democratic state.
Currently, Democrats have large majorities in both the New Mexico State Senate and House of Representatives. There are 26 Democrats, 16 Republicans in the NM Senate. In the NM House of Representative there are 44 Democrats and 26 Republicans.
All New Mexico courts are solidly majority Democratic.
All 5 of New Mexico’s federal congressional delegation of 2 United States Senators and 3 Representatives are Democrats.
In the last 3 Presidential elections, Donald Trump lost New Mexico to Democrats. In 2016 Donald Trump lost to Hillary Clinton, in 2020 Trump lost to Joe Biden and in 2024 Trump lost to Kamala Harris.
All three Republican gubernatorial candidates have lagged behind their Democratic counterparts when it comes to campaign fundraising. The three Republican candidates combined have raised roughly $1.5 million as of last month which is a mere fraction of the nearly $11 million raised by Democratic frontrunner Deb Haaland and the $3.7 million raised by Sam Bregman.
Please ignore the polls and vote your conscience for the candidate you believe is best for New Mexico. The only poll that really matters will be taken on June 2. Please vote!
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