The 2025 legislative session is a 60-day session.  It begins January 21 and ends on March 22, 2025.  On October 23, Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman flanked by representatives of the Albuquerque Police Department (APD) and the Bernalillo County Sheriff’s Office (BCSO), called upon the New Mexico Legislature  to make major  changes to what he referred to as an “outdated and weak” Children’s Code.

Bregman said it’s time to make changes to the “Delinquency Act” of the Children’s Code.  The last time state lawmakers reworked New Mexico’s juvenile justice laws was back in 1993, over 30 years ago. Some of his proposals have previously been presented to lawmakers.

Bregman said this:

“Juvenile crime is currently at unacceptable levels in Bernalillo County, specifically juveniles committing violent crimes with guns. It is, without a doubt, the one thing that keeps me up at night. … It’s not working, the children’s code is not working, our children’s criminal justice system is not working.”

This blog article is an in depth analysis of the proposed changes to the Children’s Code. The ultimate question that must be addressed is what is in the best interest of the child and keeping a family together versus punishment, incarceration and making sure justice is served.

PROPOSED CHANGES

Under the existing Children’s Code, a “Serious Youthful Offender” is a child 15 to 18 years of age who is charged with and indicted or bound over for trial for first degree murder.  A child upon conviction can be sentenced as an adult for the crime. There are no other crimes other than first degree murder that a “Serious Youthful Offender” can be charged with.   Bregman said this:

“Currently, the only crime that you can charge as an adult is first degree murder. … We want to expand that to include second-degree murder, voluntary manslaughter, rape, shooting at or from a motor vehicle causing great bodily harm or death.”

Under the existing children’ s code  a  “Youthful Offender” is defined as a delinquent child subject to adult or juvenile sanctions who is 14  to 18  years of age at the time of the offense and who is adjudicated as committing at least one of a number of listed serious felonies such as second degree murder,  kidnapping,  robbery, aggravated battery (with a weapon), criminal sexual penetration (rape), aggravated burglary, aggravated arson, shooting at a dwelling or occupied building or shooting at or from a motor vehicle. (See full definition below under heading topic CATEGORIES OF CHILD OFFENDERS AND CRIMES listing  all specific crimes).

The proposed changes to the Children’s Code District Attorney Sam Bregman lists that are the most important to him are:

1.Expanding the definition of “Serious Youthful Offender” to include second degree murder, voluntary manslaughter, criminal sexual penetration (rape), armed robbery with the use of a firearm, shooting at or from a motor vehicle causing great bodily harm or death, and shooting at dwelling or occupied building causing great bodily harm or death.

2.  Extending the age of possible imprisonment for “Youthful Offenders” from 21 to 25 years old. As the law is currently written, once a juvenile offender turns 21, in most cases, the criminal justice system automatically loses jurisdiction. Extending jurisdiction to age 25 would provide more time to get youthful offenders to get the treatment and supervision they need, while also monitoring the progress they are making.

3.  Making it a felony for unlawful possession of a firearm for people under 19 to have any guns, including rifles, and not just handguns. Right now, it is illegal for anyone under the age of 19 to be in possession of a handgun. However, it is not illegal for anyone under the age of 19 to possess an assault rifle. The law would be updating language from “handgun” to “firearm,” which will include assault rifles. Bregman is also proposing to increase the penalty for this crime from a misdemeanor to a fourth-degree felony.

4. Moving a person to an adult facility once they reach the age of 18.  Bregman believes that when a juvenile convicted of a violent crime turns 18, they should go to an adult facility because he does not want an 18-year-old in custody with a 13-year-old.

5. Remove the use of the “Risk Assessment Tool” to determine if a child is to be detained and allow prosecutors to file charges without having to first consult the juvenile probation office. Bregman said detention risk assessments also often stand in the way of holding young people who have been arrested, adding the assessments fail to give judges enough discretion and law enforcement officers enough credit as people with firsthand knowledge of a crime.  Bregman said this:  “I say that if a police officer determines that that person needs to be arrested at the time, they need to be booked into the [detention center], and within 24 hours or so, a judge needs to hear and determine whether or not that person should be detained pending adjudication of the charges”.

6.  Unsealing juvenile records during certain court hearings proceedings. This would consist of removing the secrecy laws that seal juvenile records from public review for the most serious offenders. This would allow juvenile records to be used during any adult conditions of release or sentencing hearing without having to obtain a court order to unseal the records. Every judge has the right to know and consider if the person in front of them has a violent past when determining conditions of release or sentencing. This change would allow for additional information to be heard and considered and will ultimately promote public safety.

7.  Requiring judges to preside over juvenile detention hearings.

8.  Grant judge’s discretion on the length of probation or commitment terms based on  a juvenile’s history.

Bregman said this of all the proposed changes:

“Changing the way we do business in our children’s criminal justice system is the single number one priority we can do when it comes to crime in our legislature in the upcoming 60-day session.”

WHEN IT BEGAN

It was on June 11, 2024 that Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman began calling for  reform of  the state’s Children Code after APD  arrested an 11-year-old boy for a series of violent crimes.  APD said at the time the child is a member of a gang calling itself “the Kia Boys.” APD said  the 11 year old  and at least 3 others were  caught on camera crashing into a convenience store and hopping over the counter to steal alcohol and cigarettes.   Bregman said this:

“The law doesn’t provide any specific consequences for a judge to be able to hand out to an 11-year-old doing the kinds of things they’re doing. … And in fact, the law basically affirmatively says you can’t incarcerate an 11-year-old. … If there are super young like this 11-year-old alleged offender, then we will continue to be in uncharted territory. If they’re older, they’re 15 and over, we know how to handle those cases.

It is a real concern under the children’s code, what we can what we can’t do at the District Attorney’s office, and we’re doing everything possible to focus on the safety of our community, but also the wellbeing of an 11-year-old. … I’m not someone who’s advocating out there throwing the book and throwing the key away on 11-year-olds. But I am saying we have to have some more tools in the toolbox.”

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/bernalillo-county-district-attorney-calls-for-reform-after-arrest-of-11-year-old-suspect/

DRAMATIC SPIKE IN CRIMES COMMITTED BY JUVENILES WITH GUNS

Since January 4, 2023, when Bregman was appointed by the Governor to the fill the vacancy caused by then District Attorney Raul Torrez being elected Attorney General, he says his office has received more than 1,400 juvenile cases, including 119 felony gun crimes this year alone. He said there was a 57% increase from 2022 to 2023 in cases “involving kids with guns” according to data provided by the Bernalillo County District Attorney’s Office.

Since January 2023, the District Attorney Office has received 24 murder cases, 42 armed robbery cases, 48 rape cases and 65 drive-by shooting cases all involving juveniles.  Bregman said they have received another 374 juvenile cases where a handgun was involved in one way or another. There are upwards of 80,000 juveniles between the ages of 10 and 18 living in Bernalillo County.  The 553 felony cases cited make up less than 1% of the population.

Bregman said it’s time to make changes to the “Delinquency Act” of the Children’s Code, as times have changed in the 3 decades since it was last updated. Bregman said teens have been sentenced to decades behind bars for murders after being given lenient penalties for lesser crimes.  As an example Bregman said recently one teen was given probation for a hit-and-run crash that killed someone while another teen was given probation after shooting at a county employee. Bregman said this:

“The reality of this case is, if he had better aim, perhaps someone would have been dead. … What we’re trying to do [with the changes in the law] is build in some consequences when a juvenile first gets in the criminal justice system, so they learn something about how you can’t violate certain laws and norms. You can’t continue that behavior.”

Bregman said each case can have ripple effects that devastate families on both sides. He said he hopes the proposed changes to the Children’s Code can stem some of the effect being felt by the community. Bregman said this about juvenile gun violence:

“I understand kids make bad decisions. Every kid makes a bad decision, but when you put a gun in that mix of a bad decision, people die, unfortunately. … each case can have ripple effects that devastate families on both sides. … Those victims of violence committed by juveniles and their families have had their lives destroyed”  

`Bregman said he hopes the amendments can teach juveniles a lesson before it’s too late and the intent is not to “lock up juveniles and throw away the key” and he said:

“What we’re trying to do is build in some consequences when a juvenile first gets in the criminal justice system, so they learn something about how you can’t violate certain laws and norms. You can’t continue that behavior.”

Bregman said addressing juvenile crime goes beyond lawmakers addressing the problem and he said this:

“This takes an entire community, including parents and family members, to make a difference in these young people’s lives. We all have to come together as a community and as a state, if you will. … Let’s give them the chance to get on the right path and be productive citizens, because if we don’t give them consequences early on, we end up with juveniles who are sentenced for decades in the corrections department.”

APD AND BCSO LEND SUPPORT

DA Bregman was joined at his press conference by representatives of the Albuquerque Police Department (APD) and the Bernalillo County Sheriff’s Office (BCSO).  Representatives from both Departments spoke about the trends they’ve been seeing in the field.

APD said that juvenile crime has increased since the pandemic, especially shootings out of moving cars or at buildings. APD Commander Kyle Hartsock said national data finds it has never been easier for adolescents to get their hands on guns.  The DA’s Office added that they’ve also seen an increase in juvenile crimes on social media including teens selling guns online.

APD Commander Hartsock said his department struggles to book juveniles who would have routinely been booked years ago. In part, that’s because the department generally cannot book juveniles unless they are caught with a gun or used one in committing a crime. Hartsock said Bregman’s proposals would help to hold accountable juveniles who engage in common crimes like drive-by shootings and auto thefts. Hartsock said this:

“We hope that the juveniles can get the support they need — a lot are coming from really complex family life situations, it’s not as easy as just arresting your way out of it, necessarily … But at the same time, when they’re getting caught by our officers, they’re really far gone away from that system. We have to be able to take appropriate, quick action on them to keep the juveniles safe and our society safe.”

APD Commander Kyle Hartsock said this:

“It is a statewide problem. Our detectives work with police in Santa Fe, Roswell, Las Cruces, Taos, Ruidoso all the time. And helping solve their crimes or track some of their offenders that are coming through Albuquerque, many of them juveniles. … We have to be able to take appropriate, quick action on them to keep the juveniles safe and our society safe.”

Hartsock said detectives arresting the teens, who often come from “really complex family life situation” hope they get the help they need.  Hartsock said this:

“The amount of juveniles …  involved in auto thefts has skyrocketed for our department. We’ve caught kids as young as 12 years old, joy-riding in cars, stealing our bait cars, stealing other people’s cars. … It’s not as easy as just arresting your way out of it  … but at the same time, when they’re getting caught by our officers, they’re already really far gone [when you]  have kids driving down the road in a Kia with a bag of fentanyl on the front passenger seat and their friend in the back seat videoing as they shoot out the window of a house.”

Bernalillo County Sheriff Chief Deputy David Funes said this:

“The perception of their peers right now is that there are no consequences for crimes committed by juveniles in this community.” 

JUVENILE JUSTICE ADVOCATES REACT

District Attorney Sam Bregman has faced criticism on some of his proposals in the past from juvenile justice advocates. Some advocates oppose his plan to transfer teenagers who turn 18 inside a juvenile detention facility to an adult jail, arguing that measure would hinder the rehabilitation of those young people, who are developmentally not so different from other teenagers.

Bregman responded to those criticisms, arguing in the eyes of the law, an 18-year-old is still an adult and he said this:

“If you’re 17 years old, a day away from your 18th birthday, and you commit a crime, then what that argument is saying is that they should stay in the juvenile detention center the whole time, pending everything and any sentence. … But if you’re a day older and you’re 18, and you do the exact same crime, an 18-year-old goes away in the adult system. … “I don’t see the difference between a 17-year-old, 364 days old, and an 18-year-old who [commits] the exact same crime.”

Chief Public Defender Ben Baur, with the Law Offices of the Public Defender, said his office agrees that juvenile crime “is a critical issue” and the agency would engage in conversations on the Children’s Code.

However, Bauer said this in a statement:

“But focusing on jailing kids and treating them as adults as a way to solve these issues is misplaced and will actually create more problems for our children and our communities. …

Many of these proposed changes to the Children’s Code represent a significant expansion of treating kids in the same way we treat adults, and would result in the automatic transfer of many juvenile cases into the adult courts, without consideration of the individual circumstances.

Decades of study and science, and our own experience working with children, show the deep flaws in this approach.”

The public defender’s office in the past has disagreed  with the change on expanding the definition of “serious youthful offender” so more types of crimes could lead to kids being tried as adults.  The Public Defender argues that’s what grand juries and preliminary examination hearings are for.

District Public Defender Dennica Torres put it this way:

“Removing that mechanism and just saying they are accused of first-degree homicide, we’re going to automatically route them to downtown court, adult court is not, they’re taking away protections from them. They have that right to be presented to the grand jury as well.”

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://www.koat.com/article/new-mexico-crime-juvenile-bernalillo-county/61629156

https://www.krqe.com/news/crime/bernco-da-state-public-defenders-office-talk-about-juvenile-justice-system/

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/da-sam-bregman-urges-lawmakers-to-reform-juvenile-justice-system/

LEGISLATORS REACT

No state lawmakers were present during Bregman’s October 23 press conference.  Notwithstanding, Bregman said he’s heard general interest in his proposals and has sent them to House Speaker Javier Martínez, D-Albuquerque, and to  Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham for their review and input.

House Judiciary Chair Christine Chandler, D-Los Alamos, said it was premature to comment on the amendments before discussing the proposals with Bregman.  Chandler said this:

“Certainly we know that the Children’s Code needs to be updated and modernized, I think there’s consensus around that point.”

Senate Judiciary Chair Joseph Cervantes, D-Las Cruces, said that at first glance some of the proposals are “worth having full discussions about.” He said several of them may seemingly restrict judges’ discretion in juvenile sentencing, and the public has expressed frustration that it “doesn’t reflect societal values.” Cervantes said this:

“I think we’ll be cautious about that, but I do understand where that sentiment is coming from. …  “No doubt about it, [the Children’s Code needs to be updated] … [I’m glad Bregman is willing to]  take the bull by the horns. … I think that’s what’s needed right now.”

Speaker of the House Javier Martinez appears to agree it’s time to update the Children’s Code.  Speaker Martínez said in a statement an important component of making sure young people thrive is making sure they understand the consequences of crime.  Martinez said this:

“I look forward to learning more about these proposals to modernize our Children’s Code and expect we will continue this important conversation in the upcoming session.”

House Minority Leader Rod Montoya, R-Farmington, said in a statement Bregman’s proposals were “critical to preventing young people from pursuing a life of crime and preventing others from becoming victims.”

The links to quoted or relied upon news sources are here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/news/bernalillo-county-da-proposes-changes-to-juvenile-crime-laws/article_9ec6c2c4-9168-11ef-a34c-c365814e6507.html#tncms-source=home-featured-7-block

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/da-sam-bregman-lays-out-plan-to-curb-juvenile-crime/

https://www.koat.com/article/bernalillo-county-da-says-juvenile-crime-needs-to-be-addressed-koat-children-s-code/62698716

https://www.krqe.com/news/crime/bernalillo-county-district-attorney-shares-new-proposals-for-juvenile-crime-laws/

Bernalillo County DA seeks changes to ‘outdated’ juvenile justice laws | Local News | santafenewmexican.com

CHILDRENS’S COURT EXPLAINED

Children’s Court is established in each of the 13 Judicial Districts in the state with the Children’s code establishing Court’s known as the Children’s Court. The Children’s Court jurisdiction is not exclusive to criminal charges filed against a child. The court has exclusive original jurisdiction of all proceedings under the Children’s Code in which a person is 18 years of age or older and was a child at the time the alleged act in question was committed or is a child alleged to be:

1. A delinquent child.
2. A child of a family in need of court-ordered services or a child in need of services.
3. A neglected child.
4. An abused child.
5. A child subject to adoption; or
6. A child subject to placement for a developmental disability or a mental disorder.
7. The court has exclusive original jurisdiction to emancipate a minor.

CHILDREN’S CODE IN A NUTSHELL

State law establishes the purpose of the Children’s Code to be as follows:

1. To provide for the care, protection and wholesome mental and physical development of children coming within the provisions of the Children’s Code and then to preserve the unity of the family whenever possible. A child’s health and safety shall be the paramount concern. Permanent separation of a child from the child’s family, however, would especially be considered when the child or another child of the parent has suffered permanent or severe injury or repeated abuse. It is the intent of the legislature that, to the maximum extent possible, children in New Mexico shall be reared as members of a family unit;
2. To provide judicial and other procedures through which the provisions of the Children’s Code are executed and enforced and in which the parties are assured a fair hearing and their constitutional and other legal rights are recognized and enforced;
3. To provide a continuum of services for children and their families, from prevention to treatment, considering whenever possible prevention, diversion and early intervention, particularly in the schools;
4. To provide children with services that are sensitive to their cultural needs;
5. To reduce overrepresentation of minority children and families in the juvenile justice, family services and abuse and neglect systems through early intervention, linkages to community support services and the elimination of discrimination;
6. To provide for the cooperation and coordination of the civil and criminal systems for investigation, intervention and disposition of cases, to minimize interagency conflicts and to enhance the coordinated response of all agencies to achieve the best interests of a child victim; and
7. To provide continuity for children and families appearing before the children’s court by assuring that, whenever possible, a single judge hears all successive cases or proceedings involving a child or family.”

CATEGORIES OF CHILD OFFENDERS AND CRIMES

The Children’s code defines an “adult” as a person who is 18 years of age or older and defines a “child” as person who is less than 18 years old and the Children’s Code deals exclusively with the prosecution those who are less than 18 years of age.  There is a sperate and distinct legal process from what is done for adults under the Children’s Code to charge a child with crimes.

Petitions are filed charging a child as a “Deliquent Offender” and in need of supervision and once adjudicated delinquent by the court, the child is placed on probation with terms and conditions imposed and enforced by probation authorities.

 Petitions or complaints are filed charging a child as “Youthful Offender” or “Serious Youthful Offender” and in such cases the child is afforded all the rights of an adult including representation by and attorney, due process of law and a jury trial with rights of an appeal.

In all cases begun pursuant to the provisions of the Children’s Code, when a child is taken into custody, the child must be released to the child’s parent, guardian or custodian and a child subject to the provisions of the Children’s Code is entitled to the same basic rights as an adult. Arrests of a child are also handled differently as is incarceration.

Children charged with a crime are divided into 3 distinct categories under the Children’s Code according to the crimes committed. Those categories are Delinquent Offender, a Youthful Offender and a Serious Youthful offender.

A “Delinquent Offender” is a delinquent child  who has committed a delinquent act and who is subject to juvenile sanctions only and who is not a youthful offender or a serious youthful offender.

A “Delinquent Act”  is defined as an act committed by a child that would be designated as a crime under the law if committed by an adult, not including the crime of  prostitution …  and  includes  the following:

(1)   any of the following offenses pursuant to municipal traffic codes or the Motor Vehicle Code … :

•  driving while under the influence of intoxicating liquor or drugs.
•  failure to stop in the event of an accident-causing death, personal injury or damage to property;
•  unlawful taking of a vehicle or motor vehicle.
• receiving or transferring of a stolen vehicle or motor vehicle.
• homicide by vehicle.
• injuring or tampering with a vehicle.
• altering or changing of an engine number or other vehicle identification numbers.
•  altering or forging of a driver’s license or permit or any making of a fictitious license or permit.
• reckless driving.
• driving with a suspended or revoked license; or
•  an offense punishable as a felony;

(2)  [B]uying, attempting to buy, receiving, possessing or being served any alcoholic liquor or being present in a licensed liquor establishment, other than a restaurant or a licensed retail liquor establishment, except in the presence of the child’s parent, guardian, custodian or adult spouse. … .

(3)  … [T]he illegal use of a glue, aerosol spray product or other chemical substance;

(4)  [A] violation of the Controlled Substances Act  … .

(5)  escape from the custody of a law enforcement officer or a juvenile probation or parole officer or from any placement made by the department by a child who has been adjudicated a delinquent child;

(6) …  unauthorized graffiti on personal or real property;

(7)   [A] violation of an order of protection issued pursuant to the provisions of the Family Violence Protection Act

(8)   trafficking cannabis …  .

(See 32A-2-3. Definitions, Delinquency Act )

A “Youthful Offender” is defined as a delinquent child subject to adult or juvenile sanctions who is 14  to 18  years of age at the time of the offense and who is adjudicated as committing at least one of the following offenses (statute citations omitted) :

• second degree murder
• assault with intent to commit a violent felony
• kidnapping
• aggravated battery
• aggravated battery against a household member
• aggravated battery upon a peace officer
• shooting at a dwelling or occupied building or shooting at or from a motor vehicle
• dangerous use of explosives
• criminal sexual penetration  
• robbery
• aggravated burglary
• aggravated arson
• abuse of a child that results in great bodily harm or death to the child

(Delinquency Act ,  32A-2-3 , Definitions with citations,)

 A “Serious Youthful Offender” is a child 15  to 18  years of age who is charged with and indicted or bound over for trial for first degree murder. Note that there are no other crimes other than first degree murder and the child is sentenced as an adult for the crime.

 (See 32A-2-3. Definitions, Delinquency Act )

THE DELINQUENCY ACT

The Delinquency Act is part of the Children’s Code. A child subject to the provisions of the Delinquency Act is entitled to the same basic legal rights as an adult. According to the Delinquency Act, its purposes are:

1. Consistent with the protection of the public interest, to remove from children committing delinquent acts the adult consequences of criminal behavior, but to still hold children committing delinquent acts accountable for their actions to the extent of the child’s age, education, mental and physical condition, background and all other relevant factors, and to provide a program of supervision, care and rehabilitation, including rehabilitative restitution by the child to the victims of the child’s delinquent act to the extent that the child is reasonably able to do so.
2. To provide effective deterrents to acts of juvenile delinquency, including an emphasis on community-based alternatives.
3. To strengthen families and to successfully reintegrate children into homes and communities.
4. To foster and encourage collaboration between government agencies and communities with regard to juvenile justice policies and procedures.
5. To develop juvenile justice policies and procedures that are supported by data;
6. To develop objective risk assessment instruments to be used for admission to juvenile detention centers;
7. To encourage efficient processing of cases;
8. To develop community-based alternatives to detention;
9. To eliminate or reduce disparities based upon race or gender;
10. To improve conditions of confinement in juvenile detention centers; and
11. To achieve reductions in the number of warrants issued, the number of probation violations and the number of youth awaiting placements.

Ultimately, a District Court Judge has the discretion to impose some confinement or juvenile sanctions on a youthful offender, but the court only has jurisdiction over the child until he reaches the age of 18.  The children’s court attorney must give notice of intent to invoke and seek an adult sentence.  A preliminary hearing by the court or a hearing before a grand jury must be held after the filing of the intent to invoke an adult sentence, to determine whether probable cause exists to support the allegations contained in the petition.

The link to review the entire children’s code is here:

https://nmonesource.com/nmos/nmsa/en/item/4389/index.do#!fragment/undefined/BQCwhgziBcwMYgK4DsDWsBGB7LqC2YATqgJIAm0A5AMwBMAggLQCMj1lAlADTJYAuAUwgBFRAMIBPKpS4QBRBKPFTKMuQpABlLIT4AhKQCUAogBljANXoA5AMLGufMBmh8scDhyA

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Simply put, New Mexico’s children are committing more and more violent crimes where guns are involved. The state’s Children Code and our Juvenile Criminal Justice System has not been able to keep up with changing times to deal with what now can only be considered a major crisis.  Part of the problem is just how complicated the children’s code really is and its application.  The ultimate question that must be addressed is what is in the “best interest of the child”  and keeping a family together versus punishment, incarceration and making sure justice is served and the public is protected.

It is very clear that the primary emphasis and purpose of the Children’s Code is not punishment in the form of confinement of child for crimes committed but on rehabilitation, services, counseling and social services.  The primary goal of the Children’s Code and the Juvenile Justice System is to keep the family unit intact and what is in the best interest of the child. Such an approach is wise whenever you are dealing with delinquency types of cases and children of tender age. It is  teenage juveniles that pose the biggest problem of what approach is in order.   

Under the children’s code there is no mandatory sentencing and confinement when delinquency is found and when it does happen it can only be up and until the child reaches 18.  However, things do get very complicated when gun violence is involved, protecting the general public from gun violence and when it comes to sentencing a child as an adult when charges are brought against the child as a “youthful offender” or “serious youthful offender.”

All of the major proposals and changes to the Children’s Code as outlined and proposed by District Attorney Sam Bregman are reasonable, should be considered necessary given the violent crimes being committed by juveniles and should be adopted by the legislature. No doubt many will argue that they run afoul of the purpose and intent of the Children’s Code which is to do what is in the best interest of a child.

DA Bregman’s proposals to expand the definition of “serious youthful offender” so more types of crimes could lead to children being tried as adults is reasonable and necessary given the types of violent crime that is being committed. The challenge for the legislature is to decide what types of offenses for which a juvenile over 15 can be charged as an adult. Right now, that can only happen for first-degree murder. What should be included are all violent crimes involving a weapon and should include the crimes of aggravated assault, aggravated battery armed robbery with a firearm, and child abuse resulting in death.  The legislature should also fix the law that currently allows a teenager to wield an assault rifle, though handguns are still illegal.

The link to a related blog article is here:

DA Sam Bregman’s ABQ Journal Guest Editorial: “Childrens Code Must Be Overhauled, Updated To Address Alarming Stats On Juvenile Crime”

Following are the New Mexico 2024 General Election results in Federal races, in Bernalillo County,  the City of Albuquerque and the New Mexico House and Senate  as compiled and reported by the New Mexico Secretary of State and New Mexico news agencies:

United States President

Nationally, Former Republican President Donald Trump defeated Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris both in the public vote and the electoral college vote. Trump defeated Harris in the public vote with Trump securing 74,532,699 (50.4%) votes to Harris securing 70,856,199 (47.9%).  Trump secured 312 electoral college votes and Harris secured 226 electoral college votes.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-trump-harris-11-06-24/index.html

However, in New Mexico, with 100%  of the precincts reporting, Vice President Kamala Harris defeated former President Donald Trump 51.64% (469,975 votes)  to  46.07% (419,248) with other candidates on the ballot getting the difference including Robert Kennedy, Jr.

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY

https://www.koat.com/article/new-mexico-presidential-election-results-2024-harris-trump/62707355

https://www.krqe.com/election-results/

UNITED STATES SENATE

Incumbent Democrat Senior Senator Martin Heinrich defeated Republican Nella Domenici 54.85% ( 488,375 votes) to 45.15% (401,930) winning a third term as one of New Mexico’s two U.S. Senators. Domenici is daughter of late former U.S. Senator  Pete Domenici, who served 6 terms in the United State Senate. Throughout the campaign, Domenici  struggled to make up ground against Heinrich amid a steady stream of attacks about her stance on abortion.

Heinrich raised more than $12 million for his bid to retain the seat he’s held since 2013. During the run-up to Election Day, he maintained a consistent advantage in recent polls over Domenici, a Republican who pumped more than $2 million of her own money into her campaign in the form of loans.

Heinrich currently chairs the Joint Economic Committee which examines how government can work better for working Americans. During his time in office, he’s primarily sponsored bills focused on public lands and natural resources. When it comes to crime and fentanyl, Sen. Heinrich faced criticism from his Republican opponent Nella Domenici who accused Democratic leadership of allowing the flow of illegal drugs through the border and into New Mexico.

Meanwhile, Senator Heinrich criticized Domenici for being an outsider who can’t relate to the working class. He argued that having a senior leader in the Senate will better serve New Mexicans. “This is a must-win race if we’re going to maintain a Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate. If we were to lose this race, there’s no question that the Republicans would have control of the Senate.,” said Sen. Heinrich.

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY

https://www.krqe.com/news/politics-government/elections/martin-heinrich-projected-to-retain-senate-seat/

https://www.abqjournal.com/election/martin-heinrich-nella-domenici-results/article_4e4189bc-9aee-11ef-827c-2f6a52f696fa.html#tncms-source=home-featured-7-block

https://www.koat.com/article/new-mexico-us-senate-election-results-2024/62680977

U.S. House – District 1

Democratic incumbent Melanie Stansbury defeated Republican Steven Jones 56.20% (189,464 votes) to 43.80% (147,687 votes) to retain her seat in the U.S. House of Representatives and serve another two year term. District 1 represents many areas of central New Mexico, including a majority of Albuquerque.

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY

https://www.krqe.com/election-results/

https://www.koat.com/article/new-mexico-us-house-of-representatives-election-results-2024/62725036

U.S. House – District 2

With all precincts reporting, Democratic incumbent Gabe Vasquez defeated Yvette Herrell 51.92% (136,350 votes) to 48.08% (126,252 votes)  to retain his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives and serve another two year term. Herrell previously held the seat, but lost to Vasquez in the 2022 election. District 2 encompasses most of southern New Mexico, including Albuquerque’s South Valley.

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY

https://www.krqe.com/election-results/

https://www.koat.com/article/new-mexico-us-house-of-representatives-election-results-2024/62725036

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/gabe-vasquez-and-yvette-herrell-in-rematch-for-new-mexicos-2nd-congressional-seat/

U.S. House – District 3

Democratic incumbent Teresa Leger Fernandez defeated Republican challenger Sharon Clahchischilliage 56.02 (159,058)  to 43.98% (124,854).  A Republican has only been elected to the seat once in the district’s history. That happened 1997 when former Rep. Bill Redmond was elected to finish former Rep. Bill Richardson’s term when he became the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. Leger Fernandez has held the seat since 2021.

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY

https://www.krqe.com/election-results/

https://www.koat.com/article/new-mexico-us-house-of-representatives-election-results-2024/62725036

BERNALILLO COUNTY COMMISSION

Democrat Frank Baca defeated Republican Mary Kay Ingham in the race for District 2 Bernalillo County Commission. Baca secured 61% (23,191 votes) to Ingham’s 39% (14,839 votes). The pair were vying for the open seat left by Steven Michael Quezada, who had run up against his term limit as a commissioner.

District 3 Incumbent Democrat County Commissioner Adriann Barboa defeated Republican Rene Coronado. Barboa secured 71% (33,407 votes) to Coronado’s 29% (13,890)

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/Default.aspx?

https://www.abqjournal.com/news/democrats-win-contested-races-for-bernalillo-county-commission-seats/article_2fee9c44-9bc9-11ef-aa4b-b3f976f55d26.html#tncms-source=home-featured-7-block

BERNALILLO COUNTY CLERK AND TREASURER

A Bernalillo County Deputy Clerk and a former County Treasurer and State Treasurer are the winners in the Bernalillo Country Clerk and Treasurer contests.

According to the New Mexico Secretary of State’s election website, Democrat Michelle Kavanaugh, 44, defeated  Republican Clayton Pryor, 65, in the county clerk’s race securing  60% (174,441 votes) to 40% (115,681 votes. Kavanaugh succeeds current County Clerk Linda Stover who is term imited and she was brought on as a Deputy Clerk in 2020 after several years working for former Democratic Senator Tom Udall.

In the County Treasurer contest, Democrat Tim Eichenberg, 72, defeated  Republican business owner Lelan Morrison, 67. Eichenberg secured 60% (173,441 votes) to Morrisons 40% (115,700 votes). Eichenberg is a former two term Bernalillo Coutny Treasurer, two term New Mexico Treasurere and a former State Senator.  Eichenberg will succeed Treasuer Nancy Bearce, who is term limited and finishing her second consecutive four-year term.

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=CTYSPEC&map=CTY&cty=02%20&name=Bernalillo

https://www.abqjournal.com/election/bernalillo-county-clerk-treasurer-election-results/article_cb72199c-9aee-11ef-a90f-432b00198477.html#tncms-source=home-featured-7-block

NEW MEXICO HOUSE AND SENATE RACES

All 112 seats in Legislature are on this year’s general election ballot. Members of the state Senate stand for election every four years while House districts are on the ballot every two years. Democrats hold majority control in both chambers. There are 45 Democrats and 25 Republicans in the New Mexico House of Representatives. Currently, there are 27 Democrats and 15 Republicans in the New Mexico Senate. The 2025 New Mexico legislature convenes on January 21, 2025 and ends on March 22, 2025.

On November 6, New Mexico Politics With Joe Monahan posted the following results on the most contested races:

“Republicans appeared to pick up one seat in the state House but the Dems will still have a majority of 44 to 26. In the Senate the Dems appeared to pick up one seat there, upping their majority to 28-14.

Rebecca Dow defeated incumbent Dem Tara Jaramillo in a T or C area race and was already being mentioned as possibly the next House Minority Leader as Rep. Rod Montoya plans to bow out. 

Republican Nicole Chavez won the only ABQ state House seat held by the GOP, pushing away a stiff challenge from the Dems. 

Democrat Michelle Sandoval lost her second attempt to take a House seat in Rio Rancho District 57 that GOP Rep. Jason Harper is leaving. She trailed Republican Catherine Cullen by over 300 votes in the wee hours. 

Senator Martin Hickey, in a closely watched race in ABQ’s NE Heights, defeated Republican Wayne Yevoli.”

The link to the quoted news source is here:

November 6 blog post “New Mexico Poltics with Joe Monahan”  https://joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com/

The link to review the results of contested House and Senate legislative races is here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=LGX&map=CTY

ALBUQUERQUE CITY CHARTER AMENDMENTS

Two amendments to the city’s charter will shift some power to the Albuquerque City Council pasted by high margins.  The City Council voted in June to put both the measures on the ballot.

One of the charter amendments will allow the City Council to fire the police and fire chief without cause on a 7-2 council vote. The mayor also would have the ability to terminate the chiefs without cause, a power Mayor Keller  contests he doesn’t currently have. The measure passed with 62% (131,607) voting YES and 38% (79,706) voting NO.

The second charter amendment, a “separation of powers”  amendment will change the way the mayor’s administration and the City Council settle debates. It forces both the mayor and City Council to appoint someone to the Intragovernmental Conference Committee,  which exists to settle disputes between the council and mayor, within 60 days of a vacancy. The charter amendment passed 62% (126,006) voting YES and  38% (78,409) voting NO.

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=MUX&map=CTY

BOND PACKAGE

Six bond questions with a $40 million price tag were approved by voters. Albuquerque voters along with an additional 100,000 voters who reside in  Bernalillo County voted to approve the bond package.

The bond package put forth by Bernalillo County commissioners included six questions for over $40 million in spending and they are:

• $2.5 million for public libraries.
• $8.8 million for public safety facilities, the county’s fleet and buildings.
• $11.7 million for parks and recreation.
• $10.6 million for transportation projects.
• $5.1 million for storm drainage and utility projects.
• $1.7 million for public housing.

Voters approved all of them overwhelmingly, according to unofficial results from the county’s website.

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=CTYSPEC&map=CTY&cty=02%20&name=Bernalillo

https://www.abqjournal.com/election/albuquerque-charter-amendments/article_29714892-9aef-11ef-a6c3-2f843d9cd5f9.html#tncms-source=home-featured-7-block

TWO MILL LEVY’S GET VOTER APPROVAL

Bernalillo County voters approved extending for another eight years the current tax levy to support the operation and maintenance of University of New Mexico Hospital, according to unofficial results Tuesday.

The University of New Mexico Hospital receives approximately 10% of its budget from Bernalillo County property taxes. The levy question is placed on the ballot every eight years as part of the creation in 1952 of what is today UNM Hospital.

The dollar amount the mill levy provides can change year to year based on the value of property in the county, but in recent years the mill levy has provided the hospital $120 million annually, according to hospital CEO Kate Becker.

Voters also appeared to establish a tax levy for the Ciudad Soil and Water Conservation District, which covers Bernalillo County and part of Sandoval County. The ballot question asked voters to permit the Ciudad Soil and Water Conservation District Board of Supervisors to establish a levy of up to 0.25 mills for projects that will include:

• Protecting drinking water sources and the health of rivers and streams by improving storm water and floodplain management;
• Reducing the risk of wildfire by improving the health of our forests, including the Sandia and Manzano forests; and
• Restoring wildlife habitat, including along the Rio Grande. The levy increase will generate over $6 million annually to fund conservation projects.

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=CTYSPEC&map=CTY&cty=02%20&name=Bernalillo

https://www.abqjournal.com/election/mill-levy-for-unm-hospital-gets-voter-approval/article_a440687e-9bd4-11ef-a3b1-f30b1d913302.html#tncms-source=home-featured-7-block

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Thank you to all the voters who took their civic  responsibility serious and voted.  Congratulations and best wishes to all the victors. Now the hard part begins in making decisions that are in the best interest of the public.

Approximately 48.2% of New Mexico registered voters have already cast a ballot  in the 2025 general election. According to the Secretary of State’s office, 663,874 votes were cast via early or absentee voting before early voting ended on Saturday. The 663,874 figure is lower than four years ago when roughly 785,000 votes were cast early in 2020. In 2020, 928,230 votes, representing 68.7% of all registered voters, were cast in the 2020 general election. Notwithstanding, a strong Election Day turnout will likely propel the state past 2020 turnout levels.

Saturday, November 2, was the last day of early voting in New Mexico before Tuesday’s November 5 general election.  A record number of New Mexicans had already cast their votes.  Approximately 41% of New Mexicans or 563,000 voters had participated in absentee or early voting, with 47.1% registered as Democrat, 36.7% registered as Republican and 15% registered as independent or decline to state.

Bernalillo County posted one of the highest early vote turnout rates in New Mexico this year, as more than 60% of registered Democrats and Republicans alike in the state’s most populous county voted before Election Day.  Other counties with high turnout rates so far include Santa Fe, Valencia, Sandoval and Los Alamos, where 68% of registered Democrats have already voted.

Republicans voted at a slightly higher rate than Democrats statewide, as about 55.9% of registered Republicans cast their votes before Election Day compared to roughly 52.1% of Democrats. Democrats still cast about 64,000 more votes than Republicans statewide, since Democrats entered this year’s general election with a significant voter registration advantage.

According to Secretary of State’s Office, of the state’s more than 1.3 million registered voters, about 42.9% are Democrats and 31.6% are Republicans. The remaining voters either declined to state a party affiliation, are registered Libertarians or are affiliated with a minor political party.

Brian Sanderoff, President of Research & Polling Inc.,  which does polling for the Albuquerque Journal, had this to say about the early voting trends:

“Perhaps the most interesting thing we’ve seen thus far is that Republicans are voting at a higher rate than Democrats, showing that 47.5% of the Republicans have already voted, compared to 45% of the Democrats and 26% of the independents. … So Republicans are voting at a higher rate than Democrats who have voted thus far. … Among the people who vote, more will have voted before Election Day than on Election Day. … People in New Mexico have become very accustomed to voting before Election Day.”

Counties with legislative battles are more likely to vote in higher numbers.  Sanderoff said this:

“Sometimes legislative battles can drive competition.  The legislators are at ground zero, they’re knocking on the doors there, and they can really play a much more efficient role in driving turnout.”

Voters who still have an absentee ballot can drop it off at any polling location.  The ballot must be delivered by 7 p.m. on Election Day. You can track the status of your absentee application or ballot through the Secretary of State’s Ballot Scout module at sos.nm.gov/trackmyballot.

The link to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://www.sos.nm.gov/sos-static/election-day-november-5-2024.html

https://www.abqjournal.com/election/new-mexico-readies-for-election-day-with-more-than-663-000-votes-already-cast/article_3343d236-9adb-11ef-880f-bb7daed10aab.html#tncms-source=home-featured-7-block

https://www.abqjournal.com/election/early-voting-ends-saturday-heres-what-you-need-to-know/article_7fd7c6a0-9867-11ef-80d7-57b2b77a5d37.html

https://www.krqe.com/news/politics/us-elections-united-states/early-voting-wraps-up-in-new-mexico/

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

The political day of reckoning is finally here. The most contentious and closest race for United States President will finally come to an end. With any luck, we will no longer have to endure the crude, unhinged campaign behavior, and repeated nasty lies of a politcal dotard that has a cult following.

New Mexicans can take great comfort that as of today, November 5, gone will be all the nasty, negative political ads, especially those repeatedly aired by Democrat Gabe Vasquez and  Republican Yvette Herrell attacking each other. We will finally stop having to see and hear Herrell say with a smirk on her face “I wish we could have ended all abortions in this state”.  With any luck we will not be hearing from her ever again.

On the November 5 general election ballot for voter approval will be two proposed City Charter Amendments placed on the ballot by the Albuquerque City Council back in June.

The first charter amendment would give the City Council the power to remove the fire chief and police chief, without cause, by a 7-2 vote and would require an employment contract for both positions.  The current charter requires no employment contracts and requires cause to remove the police and fire chiefs with a 6 vote majority and the positions are considered at will employees serving at the pleasure of the Mayor but requiring majority approval of the city council.

The second charter amendment creates a process to fill vacancies on a city committee intended to resolve separation of powers issues between the Mayor and City Council. The Intragovernmental Conference Committee is made of three members: the appointee from the mayor’s office, an appointee from City Council and a chairperson, who is selected by the council and mayor’s appointees.  The charter amendment forces the mayor to appoint a member to the Intragovernmental Conference Committee within 60 days of any vacancy. There is no such requirement imposed on the City Council.  As it stands, both the Mayor and City Council have total discretion as to when and who to appoint.

A third charter amendment was also passed by the City Council in June to be placed on the November 5 ballot, but it was vetoed by Mayor Tim Keller and it will not be on the ballot. The third charter amendment would have eliminated all run off elections between the two top vote getters for Mayor and City Council.  Whoever secured the most votes of all the candidates running would have won the election out right. If there is a tie between the two top vote getters, then and only then would there be a runoff.

Links to relied upon and quoted news sources are here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/election/checks-and-balances-heres-how-abq-voters-can-increase-city-councils-power/article_84951716-8a4c-11ef-aef8-573645542d7f.html

https://www.yahoo.com/news/checks-balances-heres-abq-voters-140100151.html

https://www.abqjournal.com/news/voters-will-have-chance-to-decide-on-several-charter-amendments-after-city-council-vote/article_e5cf80a8-2d21-11ef-b343-7b977b5b2b9c.html#tncms-source=home-featured-7-block

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/albuquerque-city-council-votes-on-amendments-to-city-charter/

https://www.krqe.com/news/politics-government/albuquerque-city-council-passes-proposal-for-city-charter-changes/

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY

Simply put, the two Charter amendments placed on the November 5 ballot amount to nothing more than a power grab by the Albuquerque City Council to dilute the authority of the Mayor and gain more control over the Mayor’s appointees of Chief of Police and the Chief of the Albuquerque Fire and Rescue Department. City Councilors are motivated by their desire to remove APD Chief Harold Medina.  As it stands now, both Chiefs are appointed by the Mayor subject to approval of the City council, both are at will employees who serve at the pleasure of the Mayor and can be terminated by the Mayor at any time and without cause.

Harold Medina was appointed chief of Albuquerque Police Department by Keller in 2021. During the last year, city councilor’s have been highly critical of APD Chief Harold Medina with more than a few expressing that the Mayor remove him as Chief.  In 2024 Chief Medina generated a lot of headlines.  In February, Medina crashed a department truck into a vintage Mustang while fleeing gunfire near the International District and was reprimanded by the Internal Affairs Division for his handling of the crash, notably for not turning on his lapel camera and violating APD policies and procedures. APD is also under an ongoing investigation by the FBI for alleged corruption related to APD officers’ dismissing DWIs for briberies.

The relations between Mayor Tim Keller and the more conservative majority city council have deteriorated because of the sure frustration the conservatives on the council have experienced in not being able to stop the Keller progressive agenda with overriding vetoes. The conservative leaning city council has shown significant resistance to Mayor Keller’s progressive agenda as going too far. 

A few city councilors have attempted to force the termination or resignation of Chief Medina. Councilor and former APD officer Dan Champine said he believes the frequency at which Medina has been in the news drove the proposed charter amendment giving the Council more power. Champine said this:

“If you had a police chief that was doing his job and was showing improvement within the department and with the public and with crime and safety within our city, I don’t think it would have raised this question or shown this issue.”

Repeatedly the conservative city council has attempted to repeal ordinances and resolutions enacted by the previous more progressive city council and to limit the authority of Mayor Tim Keller.  Prime examples include the following:

1. A resolution to repeal or limit mayoral authority during a public health emergency.
2. A resolution baring the city from mandating covid-19 vaccines for the municipal government workforce.
3. Resolution directing the city administration to consider and “push to renegotiate the terms of the federal court approved settlement agreement.”
4. Repeal of a quarter cent tax increase in gross receipts tax enacted a few years ago.
5. Repealing or attempting to amend the City’s “Immigrant Friendly” policy calling it a “Sanctuary City” policy and requiring  APD to assist and cooperate with the federal immigration authorities.

The two charter amendments are not the first time that the conservative city council has attempted to reduce the authority of Mayor Tim Keller by City Charter Amendments. The relations between Mayor Tim Keller and the more conservative majority city council deteriorated so significantly that on April 27, 2023 first term City Councilors Democrat Louie Sanchez and Republican Renee Grout announced legislation proposing a City Charter amendment for a public vote that would have made the Mayor of Albuquerque a member of the City Council.  They wanted to transfer all the mayor’s executive and city management duties to a city manager chosen by the city council. According to the proposed legislation, the mayor would have been “recognized as the head of the City government for all ceremonial purposes”.   

The city council is trying to get city voters to change in a very dramatic way how the Mayor appoints at will employees  in order to carry out a personal vendetta against a Mayor and a Chief they do not like and who they perceive are  ineffective and unpopular.

Voters are encouraged to Vote No on both charter amendments.

During the last few weeks of the presidential election, the Trump campaign began to run ads proclaiming the economy was so much better during Trumps 4 years as President than Biden’s 4 years as President.  Republican MAGA Trump supporters have taken to social media, especially FACEBOOK, posting all sorts of charts and statistics comparing the cost of goods and services, such as grocery items and gas,  when Trump was President and the past 4 years under President Joe Biden. The cost  of goods comparisons are offered as proof of how bad the economy has been under President Joe Biden and proof that the economy was so much better under President Donald Trump.

Trumps end-of-campaign arguments to voters choosing between him and Democrat Kamala Harris have focused on the old standby in U.S. politics that was first used by Ronald Reagan when he ran against Jimmy Carter asking voters “whether they are better off now than they were four years ago?” Truth is, Trump is again lying about how great the economy was under his presidency relying solely on increases in consumer prices, such as groceries and gas, and ignoring all the other areas of the economy.

The national news outlet Reuters on October 30, did a succinct comparison of the Trump Economy versus the Biden economy. Following is an edited version with added commentary and analysis:

PANDEMIC EFFECTS

“Trump asks for comparisons of economic conditions now under Biden versus 4 years ago when he was President. The truth is that the country was in the thick of a pandemic then, which resulted in the death of hundreds of thousands of people not only here in the United States but worldwide, [something Trump never mentions as his Administration floundered to respond to the crisis and as he denied the seriousness of the pandemic.]

In 2020, the last year of Trump’s presidency, U.S. life expectancy fell by 1.8 years because of the COVID-19 pandemic.  The National Center for Health Statistics review of the year reveals more than 350,000 people died from the virus, which made it the third-leading cause of death.”

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

“In 2020 under Trump, the U.S. economy experienced one of its worst-ever quarters, when Gross Domestic Product plunged at a 28% annual rate from April through June. Despite a startling rebound in the three months that followed, largely the result of federal deficit spending on benefits approved by both parties to keep households afloat through the health crisis, the U.S. economy was smaller in the final full quarter of Trump’s term,  the fourth quarter of 2020,  than it was at the end of 2019.

Data just released on October 20, 2024 on Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  showed the economy continues to grow above trend and close to the 3% rate Trump in his first term set as a barometer of success. After adjusting for inflation the economy overall is 11.5% larger now than it was at the end of 2019, when output under Trump reached its peak. Growth rates were comparable: From the third quarter of 2023 to the third quarter of this year, inflation-adjusted output rose 2.66%; in the comparable pre-COVID quarters, comparing the third quarter of 2019 to the third quarter of 2018, the economy expanded 2.8%.”

INFLATTION

“For many Americans, the outbreak of inflation from 2021 through last year was something they had never experienced. At its peak prices were rising faster than at any point since the 1980s, an era when economic malaise undercut the reelection campaign of Democratic President Jimmy Carter [hence the Reagan mantra “are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?]

High prices have been a centerpiece of Trump’s campaign, and one which Harris has had trouble rebutting even as inflation itself has declined. The fact that “disinflation” has occurred without the usual blow to economic output and employment is seen by policymakers as a historic victory, but seems to have registered only weakly, if at all, with households.”

INCOMES

“A major political point that has registered weakly among U.S. consumers is that incomes on the whole have kept pace with all that inflation. Economic surveys have consistently found that this doesn’t really matter when it comes to attitudes about the economy. High prices are high prices, and if food costs 10% more consumers don’t really care if their wages went up enough to cover it and then some.

Nor do averages capture every household’s experience. Still, while the bumps along the way were dramatic as federal spending boosted incomes for a while then rising prices cut into purchasing power, inflation-adjusted income per person was about 10% higher as of the third quarter of this year than it was in the third quarter of 2019.”

UNEMPLOYMENT

“Perhaps no economic statistic shows the U.S. success in skirting the worst economic impacts from the pandemic more than the unemployment rate. Federal Reserve officials have noted that  the labor market was strong under Trump before the pandemic. It snapped back afterwards under Biden as well.  Ignoring the sharp up and downs of the pandemic years, the unemployment rate was slightly lower on average from 2022 through this year than it was from 2017 through 2019.

The US economy added 254,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. That’s a huge boost for a labor market that has shown signs of weakness. Economists had projected 140,000 jobs were added in September and that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. The jobs report has moved back into the spotlight now that the Federal Reserve has all but declared victory on inflation and is focused on keeping the labor market healthy.”

WEALTH

“Not every American invests in the stock market and not everyone owns a home. But for those that do the post-COVID years under Biden have added steadily to household net worth.”

THE MISERY INDEX

“Combining the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation into a thumbnail description of economic trouble has been used by politicians as a way to pummel the opposition, particularly during times of high inflation. With the decline in inflation, it is back to roughly where it was during much of Trump’s pre-COVID time in office.”

The link to the quoted news source with charts and graphs is here:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/does-trump-really-want-compare-now-four-years-ago-2024-10-30/

COMPARING TRUMP’S ECONOMY TO BIDEN’S ECONOMY IN 17 MAJOR INDICATORS

According to a Washington Post research article comparing Trumps economy versus Bidens economy, Biden has delivered an impressive recovery. Biden was given the advantage over Trump in  11 categories, and Trump was given the advantage in 5, and they tied in 1. Below is the full unedited article followed by the link to it:

HEADLINE: TRUMPS ECONOMY VS BIDENS ECONOMY

By Washington Post Staff reporters  Heather Long and Aden Barton

“It’s the economy, stupid!” is the mantra that’s been uttered every presidential campaign season since James Carville coined it in 1992. What’s unique this year is that both President Biden and former president Donald Trump have clear economic records now, and they each claim to have the superior one — and even, in Trump’s case, the best in history.

The truth is that the U.S. economy has had spectacular moments — and real train wrecks — under both men. Trump inherited a lukewarm economy that he pumped up with massive tax cuts and extra government spending. The result was a hot growth spurt and a lot of new jobs, until the pandemic hit and 23 million people were suddenly out of work.

Biden inherited a nation still living through the dark days of covid-19. He injected a large dose of government spending and investment and spurred a rapid, widespread rebound. The economy grew fast, added more than 15 million jobs and even saw a renaissance in manufacturing and a surge in start-ups. But the pandemic’s hangover effects also included the worst inflation in 40 years and this still smarts.”

[DATA  SCORE CARD]

[There are] …  many facets of the Trump and Biden economies with the caveat that presidents only have a limited influence over the actual economy which are driven by marker forces.  Judging by the data alone, Biden produced better results, but deep psychological impact of inflation has led most voters to say they trust Trump over Biden on the economy.

1. INFLATION VERUS WAGES

 “During Biden’s presidency, inflation has stung. One of the clearest ways to see this is to compare the rise of prices with that of wages. During Trump’s term, wages for rank-and-file workers rose 15.4 percent — almost twice as much as inflation did. This helped people feel as though they were getting ahead. In contrast, under Biden, wages for rank-and-file workers have barely kept up with the 19 percent jump in prices. What’s more, the supply chain glitches and price surges of 2022 set a lot of workers back. The good news for Biden is that, for the past year, wages have been growing faster than overall prices, and this trend is likely to continue. More Americans should start to feel better soon.”

Advantage: Trump

2. TOTAL JOBS ADDED

“So far, under Biden, an impressive 15.7 million jobs have been added to the economy. Yes, the president benefited from a pandemic bounce-back. Businesses were going to bring back some workers no matter who was in the White House. But the rehiring was very rapid (helped along by the Biden stimulus), and, now, the economy has 6 million more jobs than it had pre-pandemic. Under Trump, job growth was also strong; 6.7 million jobs were added before the pandemic. But when you factor in the pandemic, Trump’s economy shed millions of jobs”.

Advantage: Biden

3. ECONOMIC GROWTH 

“The data doesn’t support Trump’s claim that he had the “greatest economy in the history of the world” but he did preside over several years of 2.5 to 3 percent annual growth — well above the norm of about 2 percent. Of course, the pandemic recession hit during Trump’s final year in office, pummeling his record. Growth under Biden has been strong — surging to nearly 6 percent in 2021, 1.9 percent in 2022 and 2.5 percent in 2023. Indeed, the U.S. economy has been the envy of the world for its robust post-pandemic surge, as Biden likes to remind people.”

Advantage: Biden, slightly

4. HOME BUYING

 “The American Dream is to own a home. Under Trump, the share of households owned climbed to almost 66 percent, up from about 64 percent when he took office. Under Biden, the rate has remained around 66 percent. The influencing factor here has been mortgage rates (which presidents don’t control). Under Trump and early in Biden’s presidency, mortgage rates were low, and many Americans took advantage of them to buy homes. In 2022 and 2023, though, mortgage rates jumped as the Federal Reserve battled inflation by raising interest rates. At the same time, in many parts of the country, home prices were also rising rapidly. As a result, 2023 became the most unaffordable year to buy a home since the early 1980s. Younger Americans are especially concerned that they will never be able to afford one.”

Advantage: Trump

5. JOBS

 “The fruits of economic growth are not distributed equally around the country. To assess the geographic winners and losers during each presidency, we compared county unemployment for 2019 (a strong Trump year) with 2023 (a strong Biden year). The results are interesting: More counties overall did better under Biden, but counties in certain swing states, especially Michigan and Nevada, did better under Trump.

 Ironically, liberal California had a stronger labor market under Trump, while a host of Republican Southern states are doing better under Biden. It’s not entirely clear why this is, but states’ idiosyncrasies probably play a role. In California, the tech sector has atrophied recently, and, in Texas, more workers joining the labor force have pushed up the unemployment rate.

 Both Trump and Biden favor place-based industrial policies — Republican tariffs, for instance, and Democratic subsidies for semiconductors and green energy. And some counties and states benefit more from these policies than others.”

Advantage: Biden

6. AFRICAN AMERICAN WORKERS  

“Both Trump and Biden presided over tight labor markets, which gave all workers more bargaining power. This helped narrow long-standing gender and racial gaps in the workforce. Female and Black workers saw strong employment gains under Trump, until the pandemic set working women back. Biden has tried to create employment opportunities for groups normally left behind. In April of last year, the Black unemployment rate reached an all-time low of 4.8 percent. And for the first time ever, in March of last year, the share of Black Americans who are employed exceeded the share of White Americans who are employed. Women have bounced back from the pandemic faster than men, partly because new work-from-home arrangements permit more flexible schedules.”

 Advantage: Biden, slightly

7.  U.S. MANUFACTURING 

 “Biden doesn’t get enough credit for boosting U.S. manufacturing. The huge amounts of federal money he has devoted to it have made a difference. Factory construction in the United States has jumped. Semiconductor companies are spending billions building factories in Arizona, Ohio, Upstate New York and Texas. Trump talked up manufacturing, but he had no noticeable effect on factory building. Indeed, the Foxconn factory he promised for Wisconsin never materialized.”

Advantage: Biden

8.  JOB CREATION BY INDUSTRY

 “Job growth was widespread under Trump, and it has been under Biden, as well. When the data is compared side-by-side, it shows that many more manufacturing jobs have been created under Biden (762,000 more). Manufacturing jobs are now at their highest level since the Great Recession. White-collar, health-care and government jobs have also surged in recent years. Construction was strong under both presidencies.”

 Advantage: Biden

9. HOME PRICES

 “Home values have been rising rapidly in recent years. When Trump took office, the median home sale price was about $320,000. By the end of his term, it had risen to about $350,000. At the start of 2024, it was about $420,000. This has been great news for the two-thirds of Americans who already own their homes. But it’s made younger Americans fear that they might never be able to afford to buy a home. Most of this increase has been caused by a supply shortage in the United States.”

Advantage: Biden

10.  AMERICAN ENTREPRENEURSHIP 

“Since the pandemic hit in 2020, new business creation in the United States has surged to its highest levels in decades. It started when people were stuck at home, out of work with little to do. But as the economy has rebounded, the boom has continued. Trump and Biden were both generous with government aid during the pandemic. But this trend appears to be mostly part of a broader reassessment of work (and life) that’s happened since the pandemic.”

Advantage: Biden, slightly

11.  ECONOMIC “VIBES”

 “Trump presided over a rise in “good vibes” about the economy. Many polls and consumer-sentiment indicators, including the monthly University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, showed that people were feeling good. Yes, he exaggerates his achievements, but people did seem to notice that the economy improved. Biden has not been as lucky. The 2022 inflation surge really shocked people. And while the rate of inflation has slowed, prices remain high, and this still makes Americans angry. Sentiment has rebounded a little in the past two years, but it remains well below pre-pandemic norms.”

Advantage: Trump

12. INEQUALITY 

“Real wages, meaning wages after inflation, have barely grown since Biden took office. But wage inequality — the differences in what various groups earn — has fallen dramatically. The reason it has is lower-income workers have received higher raises that kept up more with price increases. As a result, in just a few years, we have seen decades of wage inequality reversed. Nevertheless, many low-wage workers seem to prefer the situation under Trump because they did not have to contend with higher prices.”

Advantage: Unclear

13. ANNUAL INCOME 

“Americans often talk about how their household budgets are doing, while economists look at annual census data to see whether the typical household income, adjusted for inflation, is rising. Under Trump, household incomes rose to a high of $78,250 in 2019, from about $72,100 when he took office in 2017. But then the pandemic hit, followed by inflation. By 2022, the median household income had fallen to $74,580. The Census Bureau hasn’t released any more recent data, but economists at Motio Research estimate that median household income has climbed to about $79,000. This is good for Biden, yet many Americans still feel as though they are basically catching up to where they were before the pandemic.”

 Advantage: Likely Trump

14. HEALTH INSURANCE 

“In 2022, the share of Americans with health insurance rose to an all-time high of 92.1 percent (304 million people). Biden pushed to expand coverage by making government subsidies more generous for working-class Americans who buy insurance through the Obamacare marketplaces. This has been a clear change from Trump, who during his term repealed the law requiring people to have health insurance and saw the share of uninsured Americans rise.”

 Advantage: Biden

15. THE STOCK MARKET

 “Trump loved to point to the stock market’s rise as a sign he was doing well in office. The most popular stock index in the United States — the S&P 500 — gained about 70 percent during his first term. But stocks have also done well under Biden; not only has there been no recession, but the economy has continued to beat expectations. The S&P 500 is up about 50 percent so far since 2021 and this summer the major stock indexes keep setting records. (It’s worth noting that stock market performance under President Barack Obama was far better than under either Trump or Biden).”

 Advantage: Trump, slightly

16. CHILD POVERTY

“Child poverty dipped slightly during the end of Trump’s presidency and then plummeted under Biden’s when the expanded Child Tax Credit and other temporary stimulus measures were adopted. But it returned to pre-pandemic levels when those programs expired. Biden pushed for an extension, but the GOP-controlled Congress wouldn’t budge. The good news here is that we’ve learned what works to reduce child poverty: giving direct cash aid to families with children.”

Advantage: Biden

17. THE FEDERAL DEBT

“Trump and Biden alike worsened the federal debt. The pandemic required a lot of emergency spending under both administrations. But many trillions were added outside of the context of covid. Trump added $4.8 trillion in non-covid debt, and Biden chipped in $2.2 trillion, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Neither president can claim to have been fiscally responsible.”

Advantage: Biden, slightly

Links to quoted and relied upon news sources are here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/18/trump-biden-economy-charts-compare/

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/does-trump-really-want-compare-now-four-years-ago-2024-10-30/

https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/us-jobs-report-september-10-04-24/index.html

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

ANALYSIS  AND COMMENTARY

The final score card analysis on comparing the Biden Economy years to the Trump Economy years is BIDEN 11, TRUMP  5, one measure defined as a unclear.

Biden was given the advantage over Trump in the following 11 economy categories:

1. Total jobs added. The economy gained more than 15 million jobs under Biden.
2. Economic growth.  Aside from the pandemic, Biden and Trump both oversaw stellar growth, but Biden is given the advantage.
3. Job creation. More jobs were created under Biden.
4. African American Workers. African American entrepreneurship increased more under Biden.
5.  U.S. manufacturing. Factory construction in the United States has jumped under Biden.
6. Job creation by industry. Many more manufacturing jobs have been created under Biden
7. Home prices and values increased under Biden. 
8. American entrepreneurship increased both under Trump and Biden but more under Biden.
9. Health Insurance. Under Biden, the share of Americans with health insurance rose to an all-time high of 92.1 percent 
10. Child Poverty. Child poverty plummeted under Biden when the expanded Child Tax Credit was enacted.
11. Federal Debt. Both Trump and Biden worsened the federal debt but Trump added $4.8 trillion more than twice what Biden added at $2.2 trillion.

Trump was given the advantage over Biden in the following 5 categories:

1. Inflation vs. wages.  Wage growth was much higher than inflation under Trump
2. Economic vibes. Trump presided over a rise in “good vibes” about the economy. Polls and consumer-sentiment indicators showed that people were feeling good about their financial status.
3. Home buying. Under Trump, the share of households owned climbed to almost 66 percent, up from about 64% when he took office. Under Biden, the rate has remained at  66%.
4. Inequality: Wage inequality went down under Biden, but low-wage workers have struggled with inflation.
5. Annual income. Under Trump, household incomes rose to a high of $78,250 in 2019, from about $72,100 when he took office in 2017. Under Biden median household income fell to $74,580.

The category of Inequality was the only category where neither Trump nor Biden were given the advantage.

FINAL COMMENT

Perception in politics is everything and be damned the truth. No U.S. President can do much when it comes to cost of goods sold, such as groceries and gas prices, which are at the mercy and dictated by market forces of supply and demand and corporations desires to increase profits.

All three times that Trump has run for President he has relied upon the “big lie” which is if you repeat a lie over and over again, the public will believe it to be true and perceptions based on lies become the truth. Such is the case with Trump and his MAGA movement.

Trump’s has repeatedly claimed throughout his campaign that the economy was the best in its history under his leadership. Sadly, when it comes to the United States economy, the ploy and use of the big lie has worked with the general public given how close the election is.

On October 29, exactly one week before the November 5 Presidential election, Vice President  Kamala Harris, in a short 30 minute  speech billed as her “closing argument” before next weeks election, delivered a very strong, forceful and convincing  case against Donald Trump’s return to the White House.  Harris made a sharp contrast with Trump and appealed directly to the few remaining undecided voters who could sway the election across the 7 tightly contested battleground states.

The Ellipse was chosen as the setting for Harris’ speech to emphasize what Trump did on  January 6, 2021 as he inflamed and incited his supporters to attack Congress to try and stop Congress from certifying President Joe Biden’s election win. With the White House as the backdrop,  the location was meant to remind Americans of the “gravity of the job” and what occurred on January 6, 2021. An estimated 75,000 people, if not more, attended the event at the Ellipse on the National Mall making it the largest event of her White House bid. It dwarfed the October 27  Madison Square Garden event held by Trump where 19,500 people attended.

Harris  said Trump  is  “consumed with grievance” while casting herself as focused on Americans’ needs.  Harris said this:

“America, we know what Donald Trump has in mind: more chaos, more division, and policies that help those in the very top and hurt everyone else. …I offer a different path.”

EDITOR’S NOTE: The link to review the full transcribed speech is in the postscript below.

FIVE TAKEAWAYS FROM ADDRESS

Following are the 5 major takeaways from the Harris speech:

“WE KNOW WHO DONALD TRUMP IS”

Harris  portrayed Trump  as a vengeful “petty tyrant” who is only out for himself and “unchecked power,” arguing he would bring an “enemies list” to the White House while she would bring a “to-do list” of priorities. Harris said this:

“Look, we know who Donald Trump is! He is the person who stood at this very spot nearly four years ago and sent an armed mob to the United States Capitol to overturn the will of the people in a free and fair election!”

Harris said one of Trump’s “highest priorities is to set free the violent extremists” who led the January 6 attack on the Capitol, a reference to her opponent’s campaign pledge  to “absolutely” pardon the convicted felons “if they’re innocent.”   Harris railed on Trump’s phrase “the enemy within” to describe his political opponents and said this:.

“This is not a candidate for president who is thinking about how to make your life better. … Donald Trump has spent a decade trying to keep the American people divided and afraid of each other. That is who he is, but America, I am here tonight to say that is not who we are.”

PITCH FOR UNITY AND ‘LOCKING ARMS’

Harris framed herself as a unifier, arguing that while Trump demeans and threatens his adversaries, she would work with them. Harris said this:

“I don’t believe people who disagree with me are the enemy. … He wants to put them in jail. I’ll give them a seat at the table.”

The overture was ostensibly aimed squarely at Republican voters who oppose Trump but are still on the fence about voting for a Democrat. On the campaign trail, Harris has highlighted her support from former Republican U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney and more than 230 former White House officials from past Republican administrations. Harris said this:

“We have to stop pointing fingers and start locking arms.  It is time to turn the page on the drama and the conflict, the fear and division. It is time for a new generation of leadership in America.”

Harris made a promise to her skeptics and said this:

“I’ll be honest with you. I’m not perfect. I make mistakes. … But here’s what I promise you. I will always listen to you. Even if you don’t vote for me. I will always tell you the truth, even if it is difficult to hear.”

MESSAGE AIMED AT SMALL SLIVER OF UNDECIDED VOTERS

Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt, in a statement on Harris’ speech, accused the vice president of “lying, name-calling, and clinging to the past” to hide the failures of the Biden-Harris administration. This coming from a spokeswoman speaking for a man who does nothing but lie, engages in name calling and who does nothing but cling to the past.

Ahead of the speech, the Harris campaign said the closing argument was aimed at two different audiences of undecided voters, totaling about 3% to 5% of the electorate, who could swing a razor-close election.

One camp is the “persuade to participate” voters.  This includes young voters, voters of color and others who are inclined to vote for Harris but still need to be motivated. The group includes so-called “low-information voters” who don’t closely follow the daily news of the campaign.

The second group consists of more engaged traditional swing voters the  independent and Republican voters from suburban areas who may have supported Nikki Haley in the Republican  presidential primaries against Trump but aren’t on board yet with Harris.

Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told reporters this:

“These are very much the people we’ve been talking to all along,. … And there’s no doubt that we think we have opportunity to peel away support from Trump from the past.”

LAST-MINUTE INTRODUCTION

Harris remarked on the unusual circumstances of the election. She became the Democratic nominee after Biden dropped out of the race a very short 100 days ago.

She’s put together a snapshot campaign to try to introduce herself to voters,  yet with Election Day just days away, some still say they don’t enough about her. Harris said this:

“I recognize this has not been a typical campaign. … I know that many of you are still getting to know who I am.”

Harris said she is someone who has spent most of her career outside of Washington “so I know that not all the good ideas come from here.”

She touted her record as a prosecutor who has taken on “tough fights against bad actors and powerful interests. … It’s what my mother instilled in me: a drive to hold accountable those who use their wealth or power to take advantage of other people, a drive to protect hard-working Americans who aren’t always seen or heard and deserve a voice.”

“MY PRESIDENCY WILL BE DIFFERENT”

Harris used her address to try to answer one of the most recurring questions of her campaign: how her presidency would be different than Biden’s four years in office. Harris said this:

“I will bring my own experiences and ideas to the Oval Office. My presidency will be different, because the challenges we face are different”

Harris said that when Biden and her entered the office in January 2021, the top priority as a nation was to address the COVID-19 pandemic and revive the economy. She said:

“Now our biggest challenge is to lower costs − costs that were rising even before the pandemic. And they are still too high. I get it”.

Harris has faced a challenge to try to chart her own course while still serving loyal to the president she serves  whose approval rating has remained low for much of his presidency.

Harris ended her speech with a patriotic tone, reminding Americans of those who fought in Normandy and for civil rights and equality for women and slammed Trump in the process and said this:

“They did not struggle, sacrifice and lay down their lives only to see us seed our fundamental freedoms. They didn’t do that only to see us submit to the will of another petty tyrant.  … These United States of America, we are not a vessel for the schemes of wannabe dictators. The United States of America is the greatest idea humanity ever devised.”

Links to relied upon and quoted news sources are here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/29/us/politics/harris-speech-ellipse-trump.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/29/kamala-harris-ellipse-speech-takeaways/75925101007/

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4960797-vice-president-harris-speaks-at-ellipse/

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-crowd-size-washingtion-dc-rally-1976987

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-10-29/3-takeaways-from-kamala-harris-ellipse-speech

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

There is no doubt that the Harris speech, along with her debate performance against Trump, will be remembered as her finest hours during a very difficult election. She looked and sounded like a President.

Her closing argument speech was in sharp contrast to Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City a day earlier and it underscored her argument against him. Speakers at Trump’s event made offensive, crude and racist remarks about minorities and Harris. Trump called his event a “love fest” when it was nothing more than a “hate fest” and a display of  American Fascism.

POSTSCRIPT

FULL TRANSCRIPT: Kamala Harris’s ‘Closing Argument’ Speech at DC National Mall