The Bernalillo County Clerk has qualified the following 7 candidates running for Mayor who will appear on the November 4 ballot:
- Tim Keller, two term incumbent Mayor of Albuquerque.
- Eddie Varela, a retired Albuquerque firefighter and former California fire chief.
- Alex Uballez, the former U.S. attorney for the District of New Mexico.
- Louie Sanchez, a retired APD police officer and current city councilor.
- Darren White, the former sheriff of Bernalillo County and former Chief Executive Officer medical cannabis company PurLife.
- Daniel Chavez, president of Parking Company of America was the very first to qualify for the ballot.
- Mayling Armijo, the former director of Economic Development for Bernalillo County and deputy county manager for Sandoval County.
POLL RESULTS
On Sunday, September 28 and with early voting to on October 18, the Albuquerque Journal published the results of its expected opinion poll on the Albuquerque’s Mayor race.
Following are the poll results:
- Tim Keller: 29%
- Darren White: 16%
- Alex Uballez: 6%
- Louie Sanchez: 6%
- Mayling Armijo: 1%
- Eddie Varela: 2%
- Daniel Chavez: 1%
- Undecided 37%
- Decline To Say 2%
TOTAL: 100%
https://www.abqjournal.com/election/article_bf155bf7-2226-486b-ac34-07ca23e0173b.html
Early voting commences on October 18 and ends on November 1. Votes can be cast in person at the Bernalillo County Clerk’s Office located at 415 Silver Ave SW, Albuquerque, NM 87102. Under Albuquerque’s city charter, the two top finishers in the mayor’s race will face off in a run-off election if the top finisher does not receive 50% or more of the votes cast. If it’s necessary, this year’s run-off election would take place December 9.
KELLER’S DISAPPROVAL RATING HITS 47%, APPROVAL RATING Hits 42%
Although the Albuquerque Journal Poll found that Mayor Tim Keller has the lead in his bid to win reelection to a third term as Albuquerque’s mayor, the poll found that less than half of city voters approve of the job he’s done over the last seven-plus years. A total of 47% of voters surveyed expressed disapproval of Keller’s job performance, while 42% approved of the way he has handled being mayor. The remaining voters were unsure or declined to say.
“The poll results [reflect a continuation of a] steady decline in Keller’s approval ratings. His approval rating was at 50% in October 2021, just before he won reelection to a second term as mayor [over former Sherriff Manny Gonzales and radio talk Show Host Eddie Aragon]. It was even higher earlier in his first term, as 61% of Albuquerque voters approved of Keller’s job performance in September 2018.
Despite his declining approval rating, Keller still holds a sizable lead as he seeks unprecedented third consecutive term as mayor. Keller’s approval rating is higher among registered Democratic voters than Republicans. A total of 59% of Democrats surveyed said they supported Keller’s job performance, compared to just 14% of Republicans. Independent voters, or those who declined to affiliate with a political party, were nearly evenly split in their views.
Among self-reported liberal voters, 70% approved of the mayor’s job performance compared to only 15% of conservatives, while political moderates were evenly split.”
The link to the quoted and relied upon Journal news source is here:
https://www.abqjournal.com/election/article_b05d1ba2-908d-42b5-9e40-57e5543cd313.html
CRIME, HOMELESSNEES, ECONOMY AT TOP OF ALBUQUERQUE VOTERS’ MINDS IN JOURNAL POLL
According to the Journal poll, crime and homelessness are top Albuquerque voters’ minds as the November 4 election nears, with drug abuse and trafficking listed next. The poll found 53% of Albuquerque voters cited crime as the biggest issue facing the city. Homelessness followed behind and was cited by 47% of surveyed voters as their top concern, followed by Drug/Opiod abuse at 6% and illegal drugs at 5%.
The poll asked residents to list their top issues with multiple answers volunteered by voters. Other issues listed in the poll’s top 10 of voters concerns included housing costs (4%), the overall economy (4%), unemployment and the cost of living (3%) and the cost of living (3%).
“While crime was top-of-mind for residents during the last election cycle in 2021, with 66% of residents citing it as their primary concern, worries over homelessness have doubled over the four years since a previous Journal Poll. Now, 47% of voters view homelessness as Albuquerque’s biggest stumbling block.”
The Journal poll correlates with the reality on Albuquerque’s streets. Today, an estimated 2,740 people are homeless in the city, which is twice as many as in 2021, according to the latest Point-In-Time Count by the New Mexico Coalition to End Homelessness.
Meanwhile, concern over homelessness is shared equally by both Democrats and Republicans at 48%. Independents also care about the issue, with 39% listing it first.”
“Most Albuquerque voters have a lukewarm view of the strength of the city’s economy. Half of likely voters surveyed described the strength of Albuquerque’s economy as fair, while just 27% described it as good or excellent. Roughly 22% of voters surveyed said the city’s economy was in poor shape. Albuquerque’s unemployment rate was at 5% as of July, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which was slightly less than the statewide average of 5.2%.”
The link to the relied upon or quoted Albuquerque Journal article is here:
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
Based on the Albuquerque Journal Poll, it is more likely than not that a runoff will occur between Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller who polled at 29% and former Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White who polled at 16% with the other 5 candidates in single digit poll numbers. It is truly amazing that Tim Keller with a 47% DISAPPROVAL rating still comes in first among seven candidates in the Journal poll as he seeks to be the first person to serve three consecutive terms as mayor. This is testament to the fact that Keller is running against a very weak slate of candidates as he has faced a steady stream of criticism from his opponents and the public specifically on the issues of homelessness and crime.
Tim Keller’s total 29% total poll number was broken down as being 43% registered Democrat, 8% being registered Republican and 28% being registered Independent.
Darren White’s 16% total poll number was broken down as being 5% registered Democrat, 35% being registered Republican and 9% being registered Independent.
The 37% total of the “undecided or don’t know” voters was broken down as consisting of 35% registered Democrat, 36% registered Republican and 47% registered Independent.
With a whopping 37% of voters surveyed saying they still have not decided who they will vote for, there is still a chance that either of the second-tier candidates Louie Sanchez or Alexander Uballez who polled at 6% each, will make it into the run off with Keller by outperforming Darren White’s 16% and capturing a large percentage of the 37% of the undecided votes.
Louie Sanchez is a conservative Democrat who often sided with Republicans on the city council and his 6% poll number included 12% of Republican support in the poll as he also appealed to voters concerned about crime in that he is a retired Albuquerque Police Officer. The problem for Sanchez is that he is perceived as a Democrate in Name Only (DINO) and his 6% in the poll broken down was 12% Republican and anemic 3% of Democratic support and 4% Independents in the Journal poll.
Alexander Uballez has promoted himself as a progressive alternative to Keller and has received more support from younger Democrats. In the poll, Uballez 6% in the poll is broken down to 9% Democrat, 1% Republican and 5% Independents. Uballez’s support declined significantly among voters age 50 and older, who are more reliable voters.
It’s not at all likely that the third tier of remaining candidates of Eddie Varela, Mayling Armijo and Daniel Chavez will make it into the runoff given their single digit poll numbers of 2% and lackluster campaigns. All three should probably considered withdrawing from the race and announce endorsement’s of one of the top four candidates.
NEWS UPDATE: On September 29, candidate for Mayor Daniel Chavez told KRQE News 13 that after recent polling results, he has dropped out of the race and does not see a viable path forward. While Chavez is dropping out, he will still appear on the ballot. Six candidates remain in the running.
https://www.krqe.com/news/politics-government/candidate-drops-out-of-albuquerque-mayoral-race/
Darren White’s controversies during his public service career and his high negatives make it likely that his support has peaked at 16% in the Mayor’s race. Confidential sources within the Republican Party have confirmed that White is struggling to consolidate the Republican vote and he is having a difficult time securing campaign donations in the Mayor’s race from Republicans. Simply put, many Republicans do not like Darren White given his hypocrisy on opposing legalization of marijuana and then going into the medical cannabis industry after he left his law enforcement career. White received a vote of “No Confidence” by State Police Officers when he was a Cabinet Secretary for then Governor Gary Johnson and a vote of “No Confidence” from the APD Police Union when he was Chief Public Safety officer for the City for then Mayor Richard Berry. Then there is the controversy where White as the City’s Chief Public Safety Officer inserted himself and interfered with an APD investigation of his wife’s car accident where he showed up and took her from the scene. The poll reflects only 38% of registered Republican voters surveyed said they planned to vote for White.
KELLER’S OVERWHELMING FINANACIAL ADVANTAGE
What overshadows all the poll numbers is Mayor Tim Keller’s overwhelming financial advantage in the mayor’s race. Mayor Keller was the only candidate to qualify for $733,968.00 in public financing while the others failed to secure public finance and then failed with their efforts to raise private financing to compete.
As of September 8, Mayor Keller reported he had $654,046.56 in public financing still left to spend and a measured finance committee formed to promote his candidacy reported having another $120,000 in cash. On September 8, White reported having $130,373.73 in cash on hand, Sanchez reported $163,969.14 cash on hand and Uballez reported $121,801.56 cash on hand with all three having made significant contributions of their own money of $50,000 or more.
With the November 4 election approaching fast, expect the Keller Campaign to get very aggressive and go negative with his opponents given Keller’s unfavorable ratings. The biggest problem among all 6 of his opponents is that none of the six seem to have truly gained traction and support. All of Keller’s opponents have been relegated to scrambling for private financing and trying to self-finance.
NEWS UPDATE: On September 30, campaign television advertising commercials promoting Mayor Tim Keller’s re-election commenced.
One month remaining in a political campaign can be an eternity where anything can happen. There is a slight chance that a major event will occur that will change the dynamics of the race or one of the 6 candidates will catch on and get the lion’s share of the 37% undecided. The general public can expect an onslaught of negative campaign commercials and mailers from all 7 candidates as Mayor Tim Keller’s campaign spends the $654,046.56 cash on hand, the measured finance committee Ascend Albuquerque spends its $120,330 cash on hand and the other 6 candidates spend their combined resources of $494,968.29.
“HE MAY BE A SHMUCK, BUT HE’S OUR SHMUCK!”
The fact that the Albuquerque Journal poll revealed that among self-reported “liberal” voters, meaning progressive voters, 70% approved of the mayor’s job performance is the biggest explanation why Keller will likely be re-elected to a third term. Simply put the progressive wing of the Democratic Party will elect Keller to a third term ignoring his failed record and all of his shortcomings agreeing with the Yiddish saying “He may be a shmuck, but he’s our shmuck.”
When it’s all said and done, the final outcome of the election was likely a foregone conclusion when the six candidates running against a very unpopular Mayor failed to qualify for public finance reflecting a very weak slate of candidates. But then again, anything can happen.
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POSTSCRIPT
POLL METHODOLOGY
The poll was conducted September 19 through September 26. The voter sample size of 514 has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.
All three Journal articles relied upon or quoted contain the following poll mythology:
“The Journal Poll is based on a random sample of 514 voters who cast ballots in the 2021 and/or 2023 local government election, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since January 2024 and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming local government election.
To ensure a representative sample, Research & Polling Inc. sets quotas for race, gender and age, and weights by education level and party affiliation, if necessary, based on traditional voting patterns in local government elections. All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to individuals that did not initially answer the phone.
Both cellphone numbers (96%) and landlines (4%) of likely voters were used.”
https://www.abqjournal.com/election/article_bf155bf7-2226-486b-ac34-07ca23e0173b.html