On Sunday, September 6, the Albuquerque Journal began to publish the results of its long anticipated 2020 general election poll in the state. As has been the case for decades, the Journal poll was conducted by Research and Polling.

On September 7 and 8, New Mexico political blogger Joe Monahan published his take on the Albuquerque Journal poll on his blog New Mexico Politics With Joe Monahan. As usual, Mr. Monahan provided and excellent and insightful summary of the polls. Below are his articles:

Monday, September 07, 2020

Trump Hits The Blue Wall; Biden Trounces Him In Key State Poll: Impact On Legislative Races Eyed

Barring an event of unimaginable consequence, New Mexico is poised to go blue for the fourth consecutive time in a presidential contest.

One poll does not an election make but it often defines what is and what isn’t possible. Could we see some Republicans separate themselves from Trump in hope of surviving? Well, a hungry man will do most anything to see the sun rise another day.”

Tuesday, September 08, 2020

Poll Reveals Warning Signs For R’s In Southern CD, Plus: In Senate Race Lujan One Point Shy Of Magic Number And R’s Strategize State Senate

There are warning signs for the R’s in the latest polling as they fight to oust Dem US Rep. Xochitl Torres Small in the state’s southern congressional district.

If the GOP could pick up the Smith or Sapien seats or both it would balance out potential losses or even lead to a pick up, if all their incumbents could hold on. One thing is certain–the R’s are again playing defense just as in ’18.

ABQ JOURNAL EXPLAINS MYTHOLOGY OF BOTH PRESIDENTIAL AND UNITED STATES SENATE POLL

Research & Polling Inc. is New Mexico’s largest full-service market research and public opinion research company. Founded in 1986, the company today serves a wide variety of prominent national and New Mexico clients. https://www.rpinc.com/ When it comes to polling in New Mexico political races, Research and Polling has an extensive history of accurate predictions and is considered the “gold standard” of polling.

“The Journal Poll is based on a scientific, statewide sample of 1,123 likely general election voters who also voted in either the 2016 and 2018 general elections – or both. Respondents were given the choice of Biden or Trump, as well as the option of volunteering support for a different candidate. Fewer than 1% chose “other candidate,” and 2% said they would not vote for either Biden or Trump.

The poll was conducted from August 26 through September 2. The voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples. All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone. Both cellphone numbers (73%) and landlines (27%) of likely general election voters were used.”

The link to the full Albuquerque Journal Presidential Poll report is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/1493758/biden-holds-sizable-lead-over-trump-in-nm-journal-poll-finds.html

The link to the full Albuquerque Journal United State Senate report is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/1493963/journal-poll-lujan-leads-ronchetti-in-us-senate-race.html

ABQ JOURNAL EXPLAINS MYTHOLOGY OF CONGRESSIONAL POLL

According to the Albuquerque Journal article, “The Journal Poll is based on a scientific sample of likely general election voters who also voted in either the 2016 and 2018 general elections – or both. The poll was conducted from Aug. 26 through Sept. 2.

All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone. Both cellphone numbers and landlines of likely general election voters were used.

The link to the full Albuquerque Journal Congressional poll report is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/1493962/journal-poll-nms-2nd-congressional-district-too-close-to-call.html

CONTACT INFORMATION FOR JOE MONAHAN

The link to New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan is here:

http://joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com/

You can email comments to Mr. Monahan here:

newsguy@yahoo.com)

On March 13, the Atlantic published a controversial article written by its editor in chief Jeffrey Goldberg. He is a recipient of the National Magazine Award for Reporting. Mr. Goldberg is the author of Prisoners: A Story of Friendship and Terror. President Trump vehemently denied the truth of the article, but Trump’s previous comments are consistent with his actions and comments of the past. Other news agencies, including FOX News, have corroborate the Atlantic Report

Below is the article in full published by the Atlantic followed by the link:

“TRUMP: AMERICANS WHO DIED IN WAR ARE ‘LOSERS’ AND ‘SUCKERS’

The president has repeatedly disparaged the intelligence of service members, and asked that wounded veterans be kept out of military parades, multiple sources tell The Atlantic.

Trump has been, for the duration of his presidency, fixated on staging military parades, but only of a certain sort. In a 2018 White House planning meeting for such an event, Trump asked his staff not to include wounded veterans, on grounds that spectators would feel uncomfortable in the presence of amputees. “Nobody wants to see that,” he said.”

The link to the Atlantic article is here:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/trump-americans-who-died-at-war-are-losers-and-suckers/615997/

FOX NEWS CONFIRMS THE ATLANTIC’S REPORT ON TRUMP’S SOLDIER COMMENTS

There is no doubt that FOX News is a 24-7 promoter of all that is Trump. It is likely he has many of FOX new casters, especially Sean Hannity, on the White House speed dial.

On Thursday, September 3, the Fox News national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin confirmed reporting published by The Atlantic that Trump had said soldiers who died in war were “suckers” and “losers” and said as follows:

“I’ve spoken with two U.S. senior officials who were on the trip to France who confirmed to me key details in The Atlantic article and the quotes attributed to the president,” Griffin said.

“Regarding the French trip to mark the end of WWI, according to this former official, the president was not in a good mood,” Griffin continued. “French President Macron had said something that made him mad, he questioned why he had to go to two cemeteries. ‘Why do I have to do two?’ His staff explained he could cancel, but he was warned they — they press — are going to kill you for this. The president was mad as a hornet when they did, according to this source.”

The link to the FOX News report is here:

https://www.thewrap.com/fox-news-confirms-atlantic-report-trump-soldier-comments/

TRUMP DEMANDS FOX NEWS FIRE REPORTER

On Friday, September 5, in a late night “tweet” Trump demanded that Fox News fire national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin after she said she confirmed “key details” in the Atlantic report that he had disparaged American military dead as “losers” and “suckers.” Trump tweeted:

“All refuted by many witnesses. Jennifer Griffin should be fired for this kind of reporting. Never even called us for comment. @FoxNews is gone!”

Griffin responded to Trump’s demand by saying:

“I can tell you that my sources are unimpeachable. I feel very confident with what we have reported at Fox. Not every line of The Atlantic article did I confirm, but I would say that most of the descriptions and the quotes in that Atlantic article I did find people who were able to confirm, and so, you know, I feel very confident in my reporting.”

Several FOX News reporters and on-air hosts went to Griffin’s defense, including Fox News’ Bret Baier, who said Griffin was a “great reporter and a total class act“; foreign correspondent Trey Yingst, who tweeted that she “embodies what the industry is built upon. Truth and accountability”; and State Department correspondent Rich Edison, who said she was a “terrific reporter.” ABC News’ Jonathan Karl also commended Griffin for being “an excellent reporter and a class act,” while the New York Times’ Maggie Haberman said Griffin is “one of the best reporters [at Fox News.]

https://www.thewrap.com/trump-demands-fox-news-fire-reporter-who-confirmed-report-he-disparaged-troops/

OTHER NEWS AGENCIES CORROBORATE ATLANTIC REPORT

On September 5, 2020, CNN published the following report:

“President Donald Trump has repeatedly questioned why Americans who served in Vietnam went to war, according to someone who has heard him make the remarks.

“The President claims he loves the military, because it’s part of his political strategy, but when the mics are off and the cameras are no longer rolling he has shown his true colors,” Smith said. “He has no respect for our military; he views our service members as window dressing for his cosplay of the American presidency.”

The link to the CNN article is here:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/05/politics/trump-vietnam-war/index.html

TRUMP’S OBSESSION WITH JOHN Mc CAIN:

On July 18, 2015, then-candidate Donald Trump said this about John McCain:

“He’s not a war hero. He was a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured.”

Least anyone forget, McCain was a Republic US Senator from Arizona for 30 years, a former GOP presidential nominee who not only served in the Vietnam War but spent years of his life being tortured in a North Vietnamese prison camp. Trump on the other hand is a President who received several deferments during Vietnam, including for bone spurs.

On March 19, 2019, after Mc Cain died from brain cancer, President Trump offered his assessment:

“I was never a fan of John McCain and I never will be. … I’m very unhappy that he didn’t repeal and replace Obamacare, as you know. He campaigned on repealing and replacing Obamacare for years and then he got to a vote and he said thumbs down. And our country would’ve saved a trillion dollars and we would’ve had great healthcare. So he campaigned, he told us hours before that he was going to repeal and replace, and then for some reason, I think I understand the reason, he ended up going thumbs up, and frankly, had we even known that, I think we would’ve gotten the vote cause we could’ve gotten somebody else. So I think that’s disgraceful, plus there are other things.”

Trumps comments came after a weekend in which Trump repeatedly attacked McCain after he had passed , for graduating “last in his class” from the Naval Academy and for allegedly sending the so-called Steele dossier to the media, offering absolutely no proof that McCain had leaked the dossier put together by a former British intelligence agent and leaked to the press.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/19/politics/donald-trump-john-mccain-dead/index.html

On September 3, Trump cited the Veterans Choice health care program as evidence that he has done more for veterans than the late Senator John McCain.
There are two lies with Trump’s defense:

First: The Health Care program was signed into law by President Barack Obama in 2014.

Second: It was McCain’s bill. McCain was a lead author of the bipartisan legislation putting it together with Sen. Bernie Sanders.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/america-votes/fact-check-trump-says-he-s-done-more-for-veterans-than-john-mccain-did-1.5092854

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

When Trump first entered office, he surrounded himself with retired generals in key roles. The retired generals included Jim Mattis as Defense Secretary, John Kelly as Homeland Security Secretary and later Chief of Staff, and H.R. McMaster as National Security Adviser. All 4 generals were thought to be solid appointments. All 4 brought a sense of stability to the White House in the minds of the public. They were viewed as true patriots that would at least keep Trump in check and not allow Trump to start a war.

Soon all the relationships disintegrated and there was no trust. All were forced out by Trump, no doubt because they were too loyal to the country and the people they served and told Trump simply things he did not want to hear. Their sin in Trump’s mind is that they dedicated their lives to protecting the public, did not make money and were “chumps” for their willingness to give their lives for their country and fight for the freedoms we all enjoy. Trump wanted their absolute loyalty to him and him alone, and when they left his service, he disparaged them in no uncertain terms saying they were not up to their jobs.

After close to 4 years of constant daily news coverage and twitters from Trump creating crisis, after crisis, after crisis of his own making, even bringing the country close to nuclear war with North Korea, Trump never disappoints in showing just how low he is willing to go into the sewer to express contempt for those he dislikes or who he disagrees with. He has now revealed his total dislike for the military and the contempt for those he leads as Commander in Chief.

Trump supporters look upon him as the messiah that is cult like. Sadly, it is still not at all likely he will lose even a few of his supporters now that Trump’s contempt for the military and contempt towards those that have made the ultimate sacrifice to defend this country and its freedoms has been revealed. Die-hard Trump supporters refuse to realize he has no business being President of the United States and that he is incapable of performing the duties of Commander-in-Chief.

Our President and Bone Spur Commander in Chief has referred to the pandemic as though he is taking us to war. It’s a war which in all likely our casualties would be thousands less had he acted back in January like a true leader. Instead we have a self-center Colonel Sanders stuffing his face eating Mc Donald’s Big Mac’s all day long in the White House residence while he watches FOX News, at least before they called him out as the fraud he is on the military.

On September 3, it was reported that the city had its 53 homicide this year. The Albuquerque Police Department found a man dead around 2 a.m. Thursday morning near Menaul and Pennsylvania. According to an APD spokesman, officers were dispatched to the 7700 block of Prospect NE in response to a suspicious situation involving a man face down in a front yard. Upon arrival, they determined the man was dead and “appeared to have suffered an unknown type of trauma.” A homicide call-out was initiated. Police said there is no suspect information to release at this time and the victim had not been identified yet.

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/police-investigate-homicide-in-ne-albuquerque-/5849995/?cat=500

A NATIONAL TREND

Diane Dimond, age 68, is a national “Crime and Justice Columnist.” Ms. Dimond is an American investigative journalist, author and syndicated columnist. In a recent column, she reported that the U.S. murder rate had been significantly slowing since the early ’90s but that is no longer the case and she reports:

” … Homicides and gun violence are on the rise. Murders have spiked in 36 of the 50 biggest American cities that were studied during a newly released Wall Street Journal analysis of crime stats. On average, the nation’s homicide rate is up 24% so far this year compared to the same period in 2019. But in certain cities the murder rate is much higher. In Chicago homicides are up 52%. In San Antonio it’s 34%. Phoenix has seen a 32% rise in murders, Philadelphia 31% and Houston 27%. Gang activity is most frequently blamed for the rise as gang members are also feeling the economic pinch of isolation and turf wars have ignited, playing out on near-empty street corners. This year’s recent huge jump in gun sales may have also played a part in the rising inner-city death toll.”…

https://www.abqjournal.com/1484278/the-good-and-very-bad-of-pandemicera-crime-rates.html

In yet another column, Dimond reports that FBI statistics reveal that Albuquerque has the dubious distinction of having a crime rate about 194% higher than the national average.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1491404/state-city-leaders-play-politics-with-public-safety.html

INCREASING HOMICIDE UNIT BY ONE SERGEANT

On September 3, the Albuquerque Police Department (APD) announced it is increasing the Homicide Investigative Unit to keep up with the increasing number of cases. The APD Homicide unit has investigated 53 homicides so far in 2020, which is ahead of the record-breaking pace in 2019, and now has another to investigate. According to APD Spokesman Gilbert Gallegos, APD will be adding another sergeant to the Homicide Investigative Unit, which will increase the size of the unit to 10 detectives and 2 sergeants. Since taking office on December 1, 2017, Mayor Tim Keller has doubled the size of the unit from 5 detectives to 10 detectives. APD has upwards of 980 sworn officers with 60 more in training at the APD Academy. Growing the ranks of APD is part of the strategy to reduce spiking crime rates.

APD Spokesman Gallegos had this to say about the staff increase of one:

“We’re going to use this extra sergeant to, you know, creatively to really ease the caseload for detectives and kind of make their lives a little easier. … The last thing we want is offenders out there that we are pretty sure are offenders, out there on the streets where they could commit another crime. … For others who are not going to get the message and who are going to keep committing violent crime, we are going to keep arresting them.”

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/apd-expanding-homicide-investigative-unit/5850725/?cat=500

APD officials claim that the homicides are being vigorously investigated and detectives are following numerous leads. However, APD does not maintain collective data to show how many murders over the years have gone unsolved and still considered open cases. Some APD homicide detectives have fewer than 10 cases each.

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/city-officials-look-for-solutions-to-ease-workload-on-apd-officers-homicide-detectives/5594211/?cat=500

https://www.abqjournal.com/1423578/more-murders-fewer-cases-cleared.html

HOMICIDES CONTINUE TO SPIKE UNDER KELLER

The city’s homicide rates have continued to spike during Mayor Tim Keller’s term in office. In 2018, during Mayor Keller’s first full year in office, there were 69 homicides. In 2019, during Mayor Keller’s second full year in office, there were 80 homicides. Albuquerque had more homicides in 2019 than in any other year in the city’s history. The previous high was 72, in 2017 under Mayor RJ Berry. Another high mark was in 1996, when the city had 70 homicides.

https://www.petedinelli.com/2019/11/21/city-matches-homicide-record-high-of-72-murders-mayor-keller-forc

CLEARANCE RATES

The FBI reports that the national homicide clearance rate is 61%. In 2019, APD’s clearance rate was 52.2% when the city reached 80 homicides in one year. In Albuquerque, so far it’s 57% for 2020. It more likely than not the clearance rate will fall even further in 2020 as more murders occur.

The city’s APD yearly budget contains performance evaluation statistics mandated by the city’s “performance evaluation” based budget. According to city budget documents, APD’s homicide clearance rate reported in the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report was 80% from fiscal year 2009 to fiscal year 2016. In each of the last two calendar years, the percentage of homicides solved in the city dropped to 52%. That number reflects homicides that weren’t deemed justifiable. The overall clearance rate for 2018 and 2019 was is slightly higher because detectives solved 9 homicides from prior years.

For the past two years during Mayor Keller’s tenure, the homicide clearance percentage rate has been in the 50%-60% range. According to the proposed 2018-2019 APD City Budget, in 2016 the APD homicide clearance rate was 80%. In 2017, under Mayor Berry the clearance rate was 70%. In 2018, the first year of Keller’s term, the homicide clearance rate was 56%. In 2019, the second year of Keller’s term, the homicide clearance rate was 52.5%, the lowest clearance rate in the last decade.

As of September 3, there have been 54 homicides reported in Albuquerque for 2020. With 54 murders thus far for 2020, the city is on track to match or exceed the all-time record of 80 homicides in one year or come very close to it by the end of the year.

https://www.krqe.com/news/albuquerque-metro/detectives-investigating-overnight-homicide-in-ne-albuquerque/

LONG STANDING NEED FOR TWO HOMICIDE UNITS, MORE DETECTIVES

During an October, 2019 City Council meeting, APD management said it was working on new strategies to ease the workload on APD sworn officers and homicide detectives.
During an October, 2019 City Council meeting, APD Commander of Criminal Investigations Joe Burke had this to say:

“I would say in the long term if I was looking at a long-term solution—I believe we need two homicide units. I think the best practices around the nation normally have two homicide units. Detectives should be balancing between three to five investigations and we’re nearly double that.

… We absolutely need detectives in criminal investigations. … I was happy when I went over at the end of July and was briefed on the status of the unit that there’s a plan in place within the executive staff that when cadets are graduating from the academy that we’re going to get a certain percentage specifically for the criminal investigations bureau.”

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

In 2017, candidate for Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller campaigned to get elected Mayor on the platform of implementing the Department of Justice (DOJ) mandated reforms, increasing the size of the Albuquerque Police Department (APD), returning to community-based policing and a promise to bring down skyrocketing crime rates.

Mayor Tim Keller can take very little comfort with the fact that the city’s increase in homicides is part of a national trend. The truth is, Albuquerque has been in the forefront of the trend for the last 5 years and homicides have more than doubled. In 2014, the city had 30 homicides and each year thereafter homicides increased and in 2019 the city had 82 homicides, the most in the city’s history. As of September 4, the city has had 53 homicides. Mayor Keller says violent crime is a top priority of his administration yet he has done nothing to beef up the homicide unit to a level that is needed to deal with the crisis and the unacceptable clearance rates.

In 2019, in response to the continuing increase in violent crime rates, Mayor Keller scrambled to implement 4 major crime fighting programs to reduce violent crime: the Shield Unit, Declaring Violent Crime “Public Health” issue, the “Violence Intervention Plan” (VIP program) and the Metro 15 Operation program. Based upon the statistics, the Keller programs have had very little effect on reducing violent crime. Rather than announcing program after program after program to deal with the homicide and violent crime in the city, Mayor Keller would be wise to concentrate on increasing the homicide unit from 10 to 20 detectives.

At this point, 10 detectives and 2 sergeants are not getting the job done and adding just one sergeant is simply not enough. Ten detective need to be assigned to the most current cases over the last two years and 10 assigned to the older cases. People want results and want to feel safe. Victims of family’s of those killed also want justice. Taking years not identifying, arresting and prosecuting those that killed their loved ones only prolongs their mourning and it certainly is not justice.

Mayor Keller patting himself on the back saying that public safety is his number one priority is no longer cutting it.

On September 3, it was reported that the city had its 53 homicide this year. The Albuquerque Police Department found a man dead around 2 a.m. Thursday morning near Menaul and Pennsylvania. According to an APD spokesman, officers were dispatched to the 7700 block of Prospect NE in response to a suspicious situation involving a man face down in a front yard. Upon arrival, they determined the man was dead and “appeared to have suffered an unknown type of trauma.” A homicide call-out was initiated. Police said there is no suspect information to release at this time and the victim had not been identified yet. This is the city’s 54th homicide of 2020 .

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/police-investigate-homicide-in-ne-albuquerque-/5849995/?cat=500

On August 18, Mayor Tim Keller introduced his Violence Intervention team and said in part:

“… This is about trying to get these people not to shoot each other. …This is about understanding who they are and why they are engaged in violent crime. … And so, this actually in some ways, in that respect, this is the opposite of data. This is action. This is actually doing something with people. …”

A WIDE RANGING INTERVIEW

On Tuesday, August 18 Mayor Tim Keller held a press conference that discussed a wide range of topics related to crime in Albuquerque. Mayor Keller insisted that his administration was “chipping away” at Albuquerque’s high crime rates. The statistics do not support the Mayor’s contention.

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/keller-introduces-team-that-will-help-address-violent-crime-in-albuquerque/5831952/?cat=500

DISCUSSION OF VIP AND RAPID ACCOUNTABILITY DIVERSION PROGRAMS

During the press conference, Keller elaborated on one of his 4 new programs to address violent crime that he believes will get results in less than two years. According to Keller, the city will be working with 20 other cities that are cooperating with the John Jay College of Criminal Justice. The strategy involves law enforcement leaders understanding that half of 1% of a city’s population drives most violence. With that information, experts believe police officers will be able to dramatically realign resources to focus on that small percentage.

Mayor Keller introduced a team of experts by use of a video behind the Violence Intervention and Rapid Accountability Diversion Program that will help reach the small percentage of violent offenders. They include a former gang member, a juvenile justice professional, a mediator, and a police commander. They say they will make a difference by identifying and intervening with potential crime drivers.

According to Keller vulnerable communities and law enforcement will be working together and building trust has proven results for public safety. The goal of the team is to find crucial common ground, build new relationships, and significantly reduce gun violence in our neighborhoods.

The four individuals introduced as part of the program are:

Jerry Bachicha, Violence Intervention Program Manager
APD Commander Luke Languit
Tonya Covington, Division Director of Rapid Accountability
Angel Garcia, Social Services Coordinator

A video presentation by all 4 individuals can be viewed here:

https://www.facebook.com/MayorKeller/videos/961920580949259

According to Mayor Keller:

“This isn’t about Power Point slides or interesting analysis. … This is about trying to get these people not to shoot each other. …This is about understanding who they are and why they are engaged in violent crime. … And so, this actually in some ways, in that respect, this is the opposite of data. This is action. This is actually doing something with people. This is not just running reports and I think that’s a marked difference with what the city has done in the past.”

Keller said other cities with the same initiative have seen violent crime reduce by 10%-30%. Keller said he expects to see results in 9-18 months.

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/keller-introduces-team-that-will-help-address-violent-crime-in-albuquerque/5831952/?cat=500

CLEARANCE RATES

During the August 18 press conference, Mayor Keller was asked questions about APD’s homicide clearance rates. APD reports that it is making arrests for about half of all homicides. Keller had this to say about the clearance rates:

“We know that the clearance rate is a little bit lower than it has been. It’s not out of line with the national standards … But, I will say the reason why we’re challenged is because there are so many homicides. So, the more homicides there are, the lower the clearance rate is going to be.”

The FBI reports that the national homicide clearance rate is 61%. In 2019, APD’s clearance rate was 52.2% when the city reached 82 homicides in one year. In Albuquerque, so far it’s 57% for 2020. It more likely than not the clearance rate will fall even further in 2020 as more murders occur.

According to the proposed 2018-2019 APD City Budget, in 2016 the APD homicide clearance rate was 80%. In 2017, Mayor Berry’s last year in office, the clearance rate was 70%. In 2018, the first year of Keller’s term, the homicide clearance rate was 56%. In 2019, the second year of Keller’s term, the homicide clearance rate was 52.5%, the lowest clearance rate in the last decade.

As of September 3, there have been 54 homicides reported in Albuquerque for 2020. With 54 murders thus far for 2020, the city is on track to match or exceed the all-time record of 80 homicides in one year or come very close to it by the end of the year.

https://www.krqe.com/news/albuquerque-metro/detectives-investigating-overnight-homicide-in-ne-albuquerque/

HOMICIDES

The city’s homicide rates have continued to spike during Mayor Tim Keller’s term in office. In 2018, during Mayor Keller’s first full year in office, there were 69 homicides. In 2019, during Mayor Keller’s second full year in office, there were 80 homicides. Albuquerque had more homicides in 2019 than in any other year in the city’s history. The previous high was 72, in 2017 under Mayor RJ Berry. Another high mark was in 1996, when the city had 70 homicides.

https://www.petedinelli.com/2019/11/21/city-matches-homicide-record-high-of-72-murders-mayor-keller-forced-to-defend-policies-makes-more-promises-asks-for-more-money/

VIOLENT CRIME

The city’s violent crime rates continue to increase during Keller’s term. In 2017, during Mayor RJ Berry’s last full year in office, there were 7,686. There were 4,213 Aggravated Assaults and 470 Non-Fatal Shootings. In 2018 during Mayor Keller’ first full year in office, there were 6,789 violent crimes There were 3,885 Aggravated Assaults and 491 Non-Fatal Shootings.

In 2019, the category of “Violent Crimes” was replaced with the category of “Crimes Against Persons” and the category includes homicide, human trafficking, kidnapping and assault. In 2019 during Keller’s second full year in office, Crimes Against Persons increased from 14,845 to 14,971, or a 1% increase. The Crimes Against Person category had the biggest rises in Aggravated Assaults increasing from 5,179 to 5,397.

https://www.petedinelli.com/2020/08/18/two-police-shootings-within-5-hours-3-homicides-within-24-hours-city-again-on-track-to-breaking-homicide-record/

OPERATION LEGEND DISCUSSED

It was on Wednesday, July 21, 2020 President Donald Trump and Attorney General William Barr announced during a White House news conference that 35 federal agents were being sent to Albuquerque as part of “Operation Legend” The murder of Jacqueline Vigil, who was shot and killed allegedly by a gang member in her driveway was highlighted during the July 21 Presidential Press conference. Sam Vigil, Jacqueline’s husband, spoke emotionally and recounted during the press conference the day his wife was killed.

The city was offered financial help to combat crime if it participated in Operation Legend. Mayor Keller had the city decline the help because he did not believe Operation Legend was in line with the “values” of the city. In a statement reacting to Operation Legend announcement by President Trump, Mayor Tim Keller said Trump was ready to incite violence in Democratic cities and is forming a reelection strategy “built on gaslighting immigrants and people of color ” and said:

“We always welcome partnerships in constitutional crime fighting that are in step with our community, but we won’t sell out our city for a bait and switch excuse to send secret police to Albuquerque. Operation Legend is not real crime fighting; it’s politics standing in the way of police work and makes us less safe. … There’s no place for Trump’s secret police in our city. … If this was more than a stunt, these politicians would support constitutional crime-fighting efforts that work for our community, not turning Albuquerque into a federal police state.”

https://www.dailylobo.com/article/2020/07/update-trump-announces-operation-legend-is-being-expanded-to-albuquerque

During the August 18 press conference, Mayor Keller said he was not aware of any federal agent doing anything out of line with the city’s values and said:

“The federal government can do what they want to do and not tell the mayor about it. … So, I’m just saying I have not heard anything, but that’s all I can speak to. I can’t speak for those organizations.”

Keller said he is willing to work with federal agencies if he has something in writing that states that their objective aligns with the city’s values.

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/keller-discusses-wide-range-of-topics-connected-to-crime-in-albuquerque/5831954/?cat=500

ARRESTS IN JACQUELINE VIGIL CASE

On August 19, it was revealed that the FBI and the Department of Justice had made 4 arrests in the murder of Jacqueline Vigil and that the prime suspect was Luis Talamantes. He has been charged with being in the United States illegally and is facing up to 5 years in federal prison for illegal entry and federal prosecutors are asking to enhance his sentence by another 20 years for the murder. The Bernalillo County District Attorneys office intends to charge Talamantes with the murder once it receives the completed case from APD.

Mayor Tim Keller released the following statements reacting to the arrest, custody and prosecution of Luis Talamantes.

“This senseless murder shook Albuquerque because we all felt the loss of Jacqueline Vigil. We vowed to bring the killer to justice and to continue the fight against violent criminals in our city. For many months we have been aware that we were making real progress on the case but couldn’t comment publicly, or push back on a lot of myths being said about our police department. We are fortunate that APD has been doing the hard work over the last nine months to identify a suspect and ensure he was locked up and not able to commit additional crimes while they investigated the murder. We are all calling again on the prosecutors to move this case forward swiftly so the killer is brought to justice for the harm he has caused to our community.”

THE POLICE UNION SURVEY

On July 23, the Albuquerque Police Officers’ Association (APOA) released the results of its annual “State of Policing Survey”. The police union has been doing the survey of its membership only since 2015. This year was the first time the union ever asked rank-and-file officers if they feel supported by the mayor.

The highlights of the survey released are as follows:

80% of APD officers who responded have considered a new line of work in the past couple of months and of those 84% said it was due to the “current view on policing, the increased scrutiny on officers, new reform efforts and job insecurity.”

62% of sworn police officers do not feel they are being supported by Police Chief Michael Geier.

96% of sworn police do not feel supported by the City Council.

83% of sworn police do not feel supported by Mayor Tim Keller.

68% of officers said it was “unlikely or very unlikely” that they would recommend police work as a career choice to others.

88% of sworn police are concerned about losing “qualified immunity”.

EDITORS NOTE: Qualified Immunity” is where sworn police officers are not personally held liable for anyone they injure or killed on the job. Under “qualified immunity” the city assumes full responsibility for any and all conduct, intentional or negligent, by sworn police.

A NEW TWIST TO THE UNION SURVEY

The Police Union this year added a new twist to its survey. The survey added 405 community members asking their outlooks on local policing, crime and public safety.

The survey of community members revealed the following:

67% believed crime was getting worse.

83% wanted more officers to make the street safer.

11% believed “not enough officers” was a contributing factor to crime in Albuquerque.

https://www.petedinelli.com/2020/07/24/apd-union-releases-annual-push-poll-survey-mayor-tim-keller-has-been-had-by-police-union/

During the August 18 press conference, Mayor Keller reacted to the APOA survey that said 83% officers did not feel supported Keller, and that 80% would consider getting into a different line of work. Keller said:

“I think that survey has been pretty much the same for the last 10 years. It has said that about anyone in any position. And so, I always want to see better numbers. But, I think we got to push forward. The concept that we both believe in together, is can we make this safer city and how can we make it a better department.

And actually the union and myself, we agree on the goals. And so, the long-standing, decade-long challenges we’ve had – it’s going to be a long way to dig out. I will say this, they got the largest raise they’ve had in a decade under my administration and my direction. And we’ve had more officers than we’ve had for at least the last five or six years, then we’ve ever had. So I think our administration, at least on a relative basis is doing, much, much better.”

The annual union survey has only been around 5 years and not the 10 years as Keller stated.

2019 VIOLENT CRIME REDUCTION PROGRAMS

In 2019, Mayor Tim Keller reacting to the spiking crime rates announced 4 plans in 9 months to deal with and bring down the city’s high violent crime rates . Those APD programs are:

THE SHIELD UNIT

In February 2018 the Albuquerque Police Department (APD) created the “Shield Unit”. The Shield Unit assists APD Police Officers to prepare cases for trial and prosecution by the Bernalillo County District Attorney’s office. The unit originally consisted of 3 para legals. It was announced that it is was expanded to 12 under the 2019-2020 city budget that took effect July 1, 2019.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1325167/apd-expands-unit-that-preps-cases-for-prosecution.html

DECLARING VIOLENT CRIME “PUBLIC HEALTH” ISSUE

On April 8, 2019, Mayor Keller and APD announced efforts that will deal with “violent crime” in the context of it being a “public health issue” and dealing with crimes involving guns in an effort to bring down violent crime in Albuquerque. Mayor Keller and APD argue that gun violence is a “public health issue” because gun violence incidents have lasting adverse effects on children and others in the community that leads to further problems.

APD is tracking violent crime relying on the same methods used to track auto thefts, weekly reports summarizing shootings, refining policies, and learning from best practices used by other law enforcement agencies. One goal is for APD to examine how guns are driving other crimes, such as domestic violence and drug addiction.

“VIOLENCE INTERVENTION PLAN” (VIP PROGRAM)

On November 22, Mayor Tim Keller announced what he called a “new initiative” to target violent offenders called “Violence Intervention Plan” (VIP). The VIP initiative was in response to the city’s recent murders resulting in the city tying the all-time record of homicides at 72 in one year. Mayor Keller proclaimed the VIP is a “partnership system” that includes law enforcement, prosecutors and social service and community provides to reduce violent crime.

The 4 major components of the VIP program are:

LAW ENFORCEMENT: APD was “restructured” to create a first-of-its-kind “Violence Intervention Division” with its own Commander. The division is designed to make cross-functional partnership as productive as possible.

PROSECUTION PARTNERS: Prosecutors from all systems including the Attorney General, District Attorney, US Attorney and Office of Superintendent of Insurance will collaborate to share information and make sure cases are going to the appropriate teams and courts.

SOCIAL SERVICES: The City has always funded social services aimed at violence reduction. However, for the first time Family and Community Services is specifically working with the community to identify the most effective evidence-based violence reduction strategies, and requiring providers to work together in the Violence Intervention Program.

COMMUNITY PARTNERS: The City will reach out to community partners, including the Bernalillo County Community Health Council, that are dealing with the causes and effects of violent crime to work together on this program.

METRO 15 OPERATION

On Tuesday, November 26, Mayor Tim Keller held a press conference to announce a 4th program within 9 months to deal with the city’s violent crime and murder rates. At the time of the press conference, the city’s homicide count was at 72, matching the city’s record in 2017. Before 2017, the last time the City had the highest number of homicides in one year was in 1996 with 70 murders that year.

Keller dubbed the new program “Metro 15 Operation” and is part of the Violence Intervention Program (VIP) program Keller announced the week before. According to Keller and Geier the new program will target the top 15 most violent offenders in Albuquerque. In other words, it’s the city’s version of the FBI’s 10 most wanted list. According to Keller, the top 15 will be identified by the Bernalillo County District Attorney’s Office. Once a violent offender is caught, another violent offender will be added to the list.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1394576/city-launches-violence-intervention-program.html

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/mayor-keller-touts-new-plan-to-tackle-violent-crime/5561150/?cat=500

NEW PUBLIC SAFETY DEPARTMENT

During the August 16 press conference, Mayor Keller was asked no questions about the new Public Safety Department is seeking to create.

On June 15, Mayor Tim Keller announced plans to create a new Public Safety Department that will be is on equal footing with all the other 19 city departments, including APD and AFRD, that have hundreds of employees and separate functions, tasks, and services. The new department will have 32 people for each its 6 area commands, or a total of 192 employees at a minimum, ostensibly working 3 separate 8 hour shifts to be able to respond 24 hours a day, 7 days a week as proposed, with none to have law enforcement powers of arrest and no training as paramedics like firefighters. The projected personnel cost for the 192 employees will be upwards of $11 Million a year.

The Albuquerque Community Safety Department as envisioned will have social workers, housing and homelessness specialists and violence prevention and diversion program experts. They will be dispatched to homelessness and “down-and-out” calls as well as behavioral health crisis calls for service to APD. The new department will connect people in need with services to help address any underlying issues. The department personnel would be dispatched through the city’s 911 emergency call system. The intent is to free up the first responders, either police or firefighters, who typically have to deal with down-and-out and behavioral health calls.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

It is very difficult to keep a straight face when Mayor Keller said “This is about trying to get these people not to shoot each other. … This is about understanding who they are and why they are engaged in violent crime. …” when he was describing the “Violence Intervention and Rapid Accountability Diversion Programs.” It came across as if Mayor Keller’s program is a coffee klatsch where his group of professionals will be siting down to have coffee with violent criminals to discuss their propensity to murder and to stop them from committing another violent crime. If Keller’s new program in fact accomplishes this, he deserves to be awarded the Noble Peace Prize, but no one should hold their breath. Violent crime is usually the product of sudden heightened angry emotions or drug influenced and it intentional acts of crime.

It is the city’s homicide rate and violent crime rates he promised to bring down when he ran in 2017 that is very problematic for Keller. Those rates merit repeating:

HOMICIDE RATES:

The city’s homicide rates have continued to spike during Mayor Tim Keller’s term in office. In 2018, during Mayor Keller’s first full year in office, there were 69 homicides. In 2019, during Mayor Keller’s second full year in office, there were 82 homicides. Albuquerque had more homicides in 2019 than in any other year in the city’s history. The previous high was 72, in 2017 under Mayor RJ Berry. Another high mark was in 1996, when the city had 70 homicides.

https://www.petedinelli.com/2019/11/21/city-matches-homicide-record-high-of-72-murders-mayor-keller-forced-to-defend-policies-makes-more-promises-asks-for-more-money/

VIOLENT CRIME RATES:

The city’s violent crime rates continue to increase during Keller’s term. In 2017, during Mayor RJ Berry’s last full year in office, there were 7,686. There were 4,213 Aggravated Assaults and 470 Non-Fatal Shootings. In 2018 during Mayor Keller’ first full year in office, there were 6,789 violent crimes There were 3,885 Aggravated Assaults and 491 Non-Fatal Shootings.

In 2019, the category of “Violent Crimes” was replaced with the category of “Crimes Against Persons” and the category includes homicide, human trafficking, kidnapping and assault. In 2019 during Keller’s second full year in office, Crimes Against Persons increased from 14,845 to 14,971, or a 1% increase. The Crimes Against Person category had the biggest rises in Aggravated Assaults increasing from 5,179 to 5,397.

ALL THOSE PROGRAMS

During his August 18 press conference, Mayor Keller gave no update on all the programs he announced in 2019 to reduce violent crime. Based on the statistics for homicide, clearance rates and violent crime rates, those programs have had very little or no effect on bringing down violent crime.

Keller did say other cities with the same initiative as the VIP program that use social workers instead of first responders, have seen violent crime reduce by 10%-30%. Keller said he expects to see results in 9-18 months, which is precisely the time Keller will be running for re-election.

Voters will no doubt decide if Mayor Tim Keller has in fact failed to deliver on his campaign promises to reduce high crime rates. Voters will be deciding if Keller deserves another 4 years. If violent crime is not reduced by 10% to 30%, Keller’s re election bid in all likely will be very difficult at best.

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/keller-discusses-wide-range-of-topics-connected-to-crime-in-albuquerque/5831954/?cat=500

OPERATION LEGEND

Keller’s remark that “Operation Legend” is “not in line with the values of the city” is troubling at best as to what he actually means by it. The purpose and value of law enforcement is to keep people safe and arrest and prosecute violent criminals. The August 19 statements issued by Mayor Tim Keller regarding the FBI actions against Luis Talamantes can only be described as resentment or embarrassment of not being able to do what the feds did for the city: arrest a violent felon.

The Talamante investigation and arrest makes it clear that “Operation Legend” is not a “bait and switch excuse to send secret police to Albuquerque” as Mayor Keller asserted. “Operartion Legend” is indeed “real crime” fighting program. Instead of thanking the FBI and the United State Attorney’s Office in the immigration case, Keller was far more interested in making sure APD got all the credit for the work they performed. It would have been just as easy to thank the feds and said APD was delighted to have helped and outline what APD did to help. Instead, the statements came across as petty for not being able to take credit for making arrests in the case.

ANOTHER APD UNION ENDORSEMENT IN DOUBT

It was on September 28, 2017 that the Albuquerque Police Union endorsed Tim Keller for Mayor. Keller actively sought the endorsement no doubt wanting the vote of rank and file police officers and to be able to say APD had his back and he their back and he would take care of APD rank and file once elected.

Now that the police union survey that says 83% of sworn police do not feel they are supported by Mayor Tim Keller, and 62% of sworn police officers do not feel they are being supported by Keller’s appointed Police Chief Michael Geier, you got to wonder how anxious he will be to seek the union endorsement as he seeks a second term in 2021 and what concessions the union will want from him. At this point, given the union poll, its is not likely that the Police Union will again endorse Keller.

A link to a related blog article on the Police Union Survey is here:

https://www.petedinelli.com/2020/07/24/apd-union-releases-annual-push-poll-survey-mayor-tim-keller-has-been-had-by-police-union/

CONCLUSION

As has been the case in the last 3 elections for Mayor, in 2021 crime rates will likely be the biggest determining issue in the race. Voters will be deciding if Keller deserves another 4 years with Mayor Keller no doubt using the Covid 19 epidemic as an excuse for his need for another 4 years to finish what he started.

Voters are very fickle and unforgiving when politicians make promises they do not or cannot keep. The voter survey found 73% of residents surveyed said they felt that crime has had “a negative or very negative impact” on business in Albuquerque, 67% of ABQ residents think crime is getting worse, 66% surveyed say crime has had a negative impact on their quality of life. With those percentages, it is an sure bet that no amount of data collection, public relations or nuance programs are going to turn public perception around any time soon.

Unless Coffee Klatsch Keller does far more to bring down the city’s violent crime rates, he might as well schedule a coffee klatsch with his campaign staff the day after next years election to discuss his loss.

On Friday, January 10, the City of Albuquerque filed a Motion to have certain portions of the federal Court Approved Settlement Agreement (CASA) suspended and placed into “sustained compliance” and “suspend monitoring” of those requirements by the Federal Court approved monitor. The city’s Motion highlights the progress made by the Albuquerque Police Department (APD) in implementing the court mandated reforms under the CASA.

It was on November 16, 2014, that the City and the Department of Justice (DOJ) entered into the Court Approved Settlement Agreement (CASA). The agreement contains 276 requirements for reforming the police department. The settlement required the appointment of a Federal Court Monitor to perform audits on the progress of the all reform. Thus far, 11 federal monitor reports have been filed. The link to the CASA is here:

https://www.cabq.gov/mental-health-response-advisory-committee/documents/court-approved-settlement-agreement-final.pdf

According to the Motion, the Albuquerque Police Officer’s Association, the sole intervenor in the case, agreed with the relief being sought by the City in the original motion to suspend filed. The court appointed federal monitor took no position on the City’s motion. In the city’s motion, the city was seeking that APD self-assess upwards of 25% of the 276 settlement agreement requirements.

The requirements that would be self-monitored would be the operation of a Mental Health Response Advisory Committee, field officer recruitment and training, and management of the department’s Special Operations Division. The DOJ and the monitoring team have been working with the City and APD on a “self-assessment” plan. The plan was to determine to what extent APD has in fact come into compliance with all the reforms and the extent of the need for further monitoring. In March, a 51-page self-assessment plan was filed with the Federal Court for approval.

MOTION TO WITHDRAW

On Friday, August 21, the City Attorney’s Office filed a “Motion to Withdraw” its “Motion to Suspend” certain portions of the settlement and allow for self-assessment and monitoring. Since the filing of the motion, hearings on the motion and the plan for self-assessment have been repeatedly scheduled only to be continued because of the pandemic. As grounds for withdrawal, the City Attorney is now citing the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 public health crisis and pandemic’s lockdown orders.

According to Albuquerque Police Department spokesman Gilbert Gallegos, the decision to put off consideration of the plan indefinitely was made in consultation with the other parties in the case. The U.S. Attorney’s Office, the APD Police Union, the Federal Monitor and all the others stakeholders in the case do not oppose the Motion to Withdraw. An agreed order sign by the parties and the Federal Judge granting the request will be filed. APD will continue to work on the plan for self-assessment and will revisit the issue once things have settled down with the pandemic. APD spokesman Gallegos had this to say in a statement:

“APD was forced to devote additional time and resources over the past six months to deal with the impacts of COVID-19, while also ensuring public safety during 35 protests in the city. … APD will need to continue to devote time and resources to the COVID-19 impact for at least the next few months. In addition, we want to continue to get input from the amici groups on these plans.”

The agreement, signed in 2014, lays out 276 requirements for reforming the police department, ranging from when and how officers should use force, how the use of force should be reported and how it should be investigated, to how special units such as SWAT or Crisis Intervention Teams should operate.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1490089/city-halts-efforts-to-seek-release-from-parts-of-doj-agreement.html

DOJ INVESTIGATION

On April 10, 2014, the United States Department of Justice (DOJ), Civil Rights Division, submitted a scathing 46-page investigation report on an 18-month civil rights investigation of the Albuquerque Police Department (APD). You can read the entire report here.

https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/crt/legacy/2014/04/10/apd_findings_4-10-14.pdf

A significant number of the use of force cases reviewed involved persons suffering from acute mental illness and who were in crisis. The investigation found APD’s policies, training, and supervision did not ensure that officers encountering people with mental illness failed o to ensure rights were respected and police did not act in a manner that was safe for all involve.

What differentiates the DOJ’s investigation of APD from the other federal investigations of police departments and consent decrees is that the other consent decrees involve in one form or another the finding of “racial profiling” and use of excessive force or deadly force against minorities. The DOJ’s finding of a “culture of aggression” within APD dealt with APD’s interactions and responses to suspects that were mentally ill and that were having psychotic episodes.

APD REQUIRED STAFFING FOR DOJ CONSENT DECREE

It is the APD Compliance Bureau that is primarily responsible for enforcing the mandates under the CASA. The Compliance Bureaus consists of the Internal Affairs Professional Standards Division, Policy and Procedure Division, Accountability and Oversight Division, Internal Affairs Force Division and the Behavioral Health and Crisis Intervention Section and includes funding for training provided by the APD Academy for constitutional policing practices.

The 2020 -2021 City Council approved budget has a line item funding of $34,042,000 for APD Professional Accountability. This funding is essentially funding for the Compliance Bureau and the 5 divisions it consists of and includes APD Academy training associated with the Department of Justice Consent Decree reforms and enforcement. According to the August 1, 2019 “Staffing Snapshot”, the Compliance Bureau has total staffing of 61 sworn police consisting of 40 Detectives, 1 Deputy Chief, 3 Commanders, 1 Deputy Commander, 6 Lieutenants, 10 Sergeants.

One of the major concentrations of the Compliance Bureau is the ongoing cooperation with the Department of Justice (DOJ) consent decree (CASA) and its implementation of its terms and conditions. Internal Affairs deals with investigation police misconduct cases. Crisis Intervention deals with the crisis intervention teams who deal with the mentally ill. Policy and Procedures deals with the review and writing of standard operating procedures.

The city currently employees one Assistant City Attorney who is the former United State Attorney for New Mexico paying $150,000 and one retired Federal Magistrate billed and paid for on contract to review and write APD Policy.

COMPLETED MANDATED REFORMS

On November 16 , 2020, it will be a full 6 years that has expired since the city entered into the CASA with the DOJ. It was originally agreed that the settlement implementation would be completed within 4 years, but the previous Republican Administration engaged in delay and obstruction tactics found by the Federal Monitor. Now after almost 6 full years the following mandated reforms under the CASA have been completed:

1. After a full year of negotiations, new “use of force” and “use of deadly force” policies have been written, implemented and all APD sworn have received training on the policies.

2. All sworn police officers have received crisis management intervention training.

3. APD has created a “Use of Force Review Board” that oversees all internal affairs investigations of use of force and deadly force.

4. The Internal Affairs Unit has been divided into two sections, one dealing with general complaints and the other dealing with use of force incidents.

5. Sweeping changes ranging from APD’s SWAT team protocols, to banning choke-holds, to auditing the use of every Taser carried by officers and re-writing and implementation of new use of force and deadly force policies have been completed.

6. “Constitutional policing” practices and methods, and mandatory crisis intervention techniques an de-escalation tactics with the mentally ill have been implemented at the APD police academy with all sworn police having received training.

7. APD has adopted a new system to hold officers and supervisors accountable for all use of force incidents with personnel procedures implemented detailing how use of force cases are investigated.

8. APD has revised and updated its policies on the mandatory use of lapel cameras by all sworn police officers.

9. The Repeat Offenders Project, known as ROP, has been abolished.

10. Civilian Police Oversight Agency has been created, funded, fully staffed and a director hired.

11. The Community Policing Counsels (CPCs) have been created in all area commands and the CPCs meet monthly.

12. The Mental Health Advisory Committee has been implemented.

13. The CASA identified that APD was understaffed. The City and APD are in the process of spending $88 million dollars, over a four-year period, with 32 million dollars of recurring expenditures, to hire 322 sworn officers and grow the department to 1,200 officers. As of January 1, 2020, APD has 949 full time police officers, up from 878 sworn police. The expansion thus far is attributed primarily to hiring from other departments and returning to work APD retirees.

14. In November, 2018 APD achieved 99.6% compliance with primary tasks, 75.4% secondary compliance and 59.5% operational compliance with APD making significant progress in overall compliance.

15. According to the Use of Force Report for the years 2017 and 2018, APD’s “use of force” and “deadly force” is down dramatically , which was one of the primary objectives of the CASA reforms.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

It is disappointing that the city decided to withdraw the “Motion to Suspend” portions of the Court Approved Settlement Agreement (CASA). The city arguments are very weak at best that “APD was forced to devote additional time and resources over the past six months to deal with the impacts of COVID-19 …” and that APD needs to “continue to devote time and resources to the COVID-19 impact for at least the next few months.” The truth is 61 fully funded APD positions are devoted to the DOJ reform process, positions that are not likely being used at all to deal with the pandemic.

After review of the city’s motion, the DOJ investigation report, the 276 CASA mandates, the 11 Independent Monitors Reports and the reforms implemented, a major conclusion that can be reached is the spirit and intent of the CASA has been attained. The motion was viewed by many as a precursor to dismissal of the entire case sooner rather than later.

The biggest complaint of all the DOJ consent decrees in the country is implementation and enforcement “go on and on” for years, costing millions in taxpayer dollars. With expected, continued implementation of the DOJ reforms a 95% to 100% compliance with all the CASA primary, secondary and operational compliance goals should be achievable within 12 months, if not much sooner.

The role of the federal monitor should be reduced, as was being requested in the original motion, as well as the continued costs of the monitoring team reduced. The city should commence negotiations immediately with the DOJ for a stipulated “Order of Complete Compliance and Dismissal” of the CASA, and all causes of action the DOJ has against the city and APD. Otherwise, the city and taxpayers will be sucked into “year after year” of expenses and costs associated with a consent decree whose primary objective has been achieved and whose federal monitor wants another $4 million to audit progress.

Sooner rather than later there must come a time when APD needs to be dismissed from the case. APD needs to be able to do its job without the Department of Justice (DOJ) constantly monitoring and looking over its shoulder. City Hall, the Mayor and the City Council need to be forced do their jobs along with the Police Oversight Commission of civilian oversight and holding APD accountable for constitutional policing practices.

The documents related to APD’s settlement agreement include:

The Settlement Agreement between City and the DOJ
APD Progress Reports
Independent Monitor’s Reports
Compliance Reports
Use of Force Annual Reports
Use of Force Reports
Studies
Audits

The link to review and download the documents is here:

https://www.cabq.gov/police/documents-related-to-apds-settlement-agreement

For a related blog article see:

City Moves To Be Released From Portions Of DOJ Consent Decree And Monitoring; Commentary: Intent And Purpose Of CASA Accomplished, Dismiss Case

On Monday, August 31, Mayor Tim Keller and his Chief Financial Officer Sanjay Bhakta, held a press conference to discuss the city’s financial condition, the city’s tax revenues and the impending release of the finalized 2020-2021 fiscal year budget to the City Council for hearing and final approval. Keller reported that the decrease in tax revenue has led to an estimated $27 million shortfall in Albuquerque for the current fiscal year, but by preserving this year’s budget, the city was able to avoid furloughs.

What was also was instrumental in avoiding furloughs and layoffs among the city’s roughly 6,000-person workforce was the city receiving $150 million in restricted federal coronavirus relief funding through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES). Originally, the CARES Act funding was only to be used for pandemic related efforts, but it was amended to allow it to be used and applied to other city expenditures.

City officials reported that for the fiscal year 2020 gross receipts tax revenue finished 5% behind expectations. Another 5% drop in gross receipts tax revenue is projected for 2021. The drop in revenues resulted in a hiring freeze. According to Keller, the hiring freeze translates into meaning fewer people performing code inspections, driving buses and maintaining parks.

For the 2020 fiscal year that ended June 30, the city’s gross receipts tax revenue (GRT) was approximately $19.9 million short of projections, but the GRT still surpassed 2019 GRT because of a new Internet sales tax stream. City officials expect that GRT revenues will continue to dwindle in fiscal year 2021, which began July 1.

Mayor Keller offered the following summation:

“We have our economic challenges, there’s no doubt about that, but our city on a relative basis is actually not doing as bad as we thought. … [W]e tried to first cut costs then we tried to identify savings by banning travel, by examining department budgets for costs savings, restrictions on new hires; we have a broad hiring freeze that’s had a lot of exceptions we’ve had in place now for I think six months. …

But by and large, any major initiative, we expect government to continue on as it normally would with just minor delays in some services. … The job recovery region, Albuquerque and Bernalillo County, is in much better shape. … We should be back to the normal level sometime in 2024.

Keller did acknowledge that it might get worse if local businesses don’t start rebounding, but believes the city’s finances will be fine for at least 6 months assuming the economy gets better. If the economy does not get better, Keller said:

“We are always considering what we need to do and that could include layoffs. That could include wage cuts. That could include furloughs.”

Links to related news coverage are here:

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/city-of-albuquerque-faces-budget-shortfall-but-mayor-says-it-could-be-worse/5846715/?cat=500

https://www.koat.com/article/expect-taller-grass-trash-and-longer-bus-waits/33854871

https://www.abqjournal.com/1492125/keller-citys-economic-position-better-than-most.html

CITY FINANCES IN A NUTSHELL

City finances have been totally upended as a result of the corona virus pandemic and its impact on the city economy and in turn city gross receipts tax returns have dramatically declined. On March 16, 2020, the New Mexico Department of Finance, Local Government Division, issued Memorandum authorizing the New Mexico municipalities to submit their last year’s fiscal budget for 2019-2020 budget as their fiscal budget for year 2020-2021 until reliable tax revenue projections can be determined. That is exactly what the Albuquerque City Council did when it enacted what they considered a “stop gap” budget.

The Charter of the City of Albuquerque requires the Mayor to formulate the annual operating budget for the City of Albuquerque and all of its departments. It is the City’s Department of Finance under the direction of the City’s Chief Financial Officer (CFO) that formulates the yearly budget which is then submitted to the Albuquerque City Council. The city’s fiscal year’s budget begins every year on July 1 and ends every year on June 30. The annual city budget must be submitted by the Mayor’s Office to the City Council by April 1. The City Council, upon receipt of the proposed budget from the Mayor, schedules budget hearings, takes public input and makes changes as it sees fit before enacting the final budget to be effective July 1.

The current gross receipt tax added to virtually all retail sales of goods and services is 7.7850%. Businesses collect the tax on each sale made and the money is then sent to the New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department and each month the state the distributes the city’s portion of tax collected to the city. Retail businesses make up about 25% of all the city’s gross receipts tax collected. The gross receipts tax revenue pays for basic municipal operations and essential services such as police protection, fire protection, solid waste collection, street repairs, animal welfare, parks maintenance, social services and the wages and benefits to over 6,000 city employees.

Gross receipts tax is collected and given to the city accounts for 67% of the City’s general fund revenue. The gross receipts tax revenue pays for basic municipal operations and essential services such as police protection, fire protection, solid waste collection, street repairs, animal welfare, parks maintenance, social services and the wages and benefits of over 6,000 city employees. For the current fiscal year that ended on July 31, 2020, the city averaged upwards of $41 million in gross receipts tax revenue or $492 million dollars for the year. The remaining 33% of revenues needed to operate the city are generated other fees, other tax revenues and federal funding

2020-2021 OPERATING BUDGET ENACTED

On April 13, 2020, on a unanimous vote of 9-0, the Albuquerque City Council enacted R-20-31 which is the city’s operating budget for fiscal year 2020-2021. The approach to enact the 2020-2021 city budget was a dramatic departure from all previous years all because of the pandemic and falling gross receipts tax revenues.

The City Council’s operating budget, R-20-31, enacted is a “bare bones budget” resolution consisting of only 7 pages of line item appropriations for each of the city departments. There is no explanation or elaboration on the actual use of the millions appropriated in the budget. No public hearings were conducted that would have allowed comment and input from the public. The 2020-2021 operating budget went into effect on July 1, 2020 and ends June 31, 2021. The City Council ostensibly will follow the normal process with the Keller Administration submit a “performance based” budget and conduct public hearings.

The link to the enacted budget, resolution R-30-21 is here. Click on the link then click on R-31 spelled out in blue and marked FINAL:

https://cabq.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=4411998&GUID=3FD662EF-A96A-4BD6-8113-380B7451BADC

BREAKING A CAMPAIGN PROMISE

In May, 2018, 5 months after he assumed office, Mayor Tim Keller signed into law a gross receipt sales tax increase enacted by the City Council. Seventy percent of the tax was dedicated to public safety. The tax was supposed to raise $55 million a year in revenue. Keller broke a campaign promise not to raise taxes, even for public safety, without a public vote. The rational for the tax increase was that the city was faced with a $40 million dollar deficit. The deficit never materialized and the tax increase was not repealed, and the Keller Administration has never disclosed where those revenues went or why the tax was not repealed when the deficit never materialized.

The City of Albuquerque had an operating budget of $1.1 billion for the fiscal year that began July 1, 2019 and ends on June 30, 2020. It was the first time in city history that the city operating budget exceed the $1 Billion figure. The 2019-2020 budget represented an overall 11% increase in spending over the previous year.

HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF

City Hall history is repeating itself. It was 10 years ago in 2010 that the city had to make significant cuts in order to deal with the “great recession”. Then Republican Mayor Richard J. Berry had a $69 million shortfall and he decided unilaterally to cut city employee pay by 3%, disregard negotiated union contract pay increases with the city’s unions, place a freeze on all hiring and reduced and slashed city services not considered essential such as the 311-call center. The number of APD sworn officers went from 1,100 in 2010 all the way down to 875 under Mayor Berry and community based policing was abandoned and existed in name only.

For the full 8 years under the former Republican Mayor Administration, the city was hit hard because of the great recession to the extent that essential services were dramatically cut and city and government was dramatically downsized. The cuts and downsizing were done in order to avoid any all tax increases to maintain Mayor Berry’s Republican philosophy that all tax increases are bad, even when needed for essential services, and that city government was too big and needed to be downsized.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Just as the city was pulling out of the 10-year great recession, the city gets hit and get hit hard in the gut with the corona virus pandemic resulting in business closures, layoffs and a dramatic decrease in gross receipts tax revenues that funds 67% of the city’s operating budget. The city is now facing a major financial crisis.

It will not be fully known for at least another 6 months to what extent the corona virus has depleted the city’s coffers. If the City in fact plunges into another recession, which is highly likely, it will be much deeper than the 10-year great recession that started in 2008. Many businesses along central already barely making it because of the ART project will probably close permanently because of the Governor and Mayor’s emergency health orders.

DIFFICULT DECISIONS AHEAD

Mayor Tim Keller and the Albuquerque City Council will likely have to embark on a very painful but absolutely necessary reduction in government services and expenditures to deal with the major deficit caused by a dramatic reduction in gross receipts tax revenues. The City’s loss of gross receipts tax revenues obviously was brought on by the corona virus shutdown of businesses and resulting loss of gross receipts tax revenues, but Mayor Keller pinning his hopes on a quick rebound is not realistic.

The City is mandated by law to have a balanced‐budget. According to Mayor Keller, city financing should be fine over the next six months. But if things do not improve quickly by June, 2021, the city will be faced with any number of options or a combination thereof including:

1. Slashing department budgets across the board by a mandatory percentage to “spread the pain”.
2. Eliminate entire none essential city service departments, city divisions or units.
3. Reduce city services in some form.
4. Closure of city facilities such as libraries, senior citizen centers, golf courses and recreational activities and cancellation of major public events such as Summerfest.
5. Continue to freeze all hiring over the next year.
6. Layoffs or furloughs of government workers and elimination and funding of city positions.
7. Delay for a time all city construction projects that will result in need to hire more city staff.
8. Suspend all salary increases or implement salary deductions to the 6,000 city employees.
9. Postpone growing the police and fire department ranks and concentrate on police and fire academy classes for the sole purpose of keeping up with retirements and maintaining the existing number of the ranks before retirements
10. Increase gross receipts tax.
11. Increase property taxes.
12. Increase admission fees to museums, the Zoo and Botanical Gardens and Aquarium, golf fees.
13. A combination of all cost cutting and revenue increase options.

Mayor Tim Keller will start to look and sound more and more like his former Republican predecessor when he starts to say “cut city services and reduce the size of government” to get through the financial crisis caused by the pandemic. One thing is for certain is that if Mayor Tim Keller advocates another gross receipt tax increase, or goes along with the city council with it, or supports a property tax increase, Keller will wind up becoming a one term Mayor.

CONCLUSION

Before Mayor Keller downplays delaying not getting the parks mowed, he may want to pick up the phone and call former Mayor David Rusk on the importance of such things. Rusk served as Mayor from 1977 to 1981 and became a former, one term Mayor, when his popularity plummeted. Voters became very upset and when they felt Rusk did not act quickly in cutting down wild weeds growing throughout the city after a heavy monsoon season. The weeds were not cut down because of cost savings.

Then again, cutting weeds and grass will be the least of Mayor Tim Keller’s concerns as he is dealing with the cities violent crime and murder rates.