The news headlines for April 4, 5, 6 and 7, 2019 reported 8 dead, including a child of 5 beaten to death by her father with a rubber water shoe and an 8-year-old girl who was shot and critically injured in a Northeast Albuquerque home from a stray bullet, all in four days.

On April 29, 2019 the Albuquerque Journal front page headline printed in red letters read “IN BERNALILLO COUTY” followed in black letters by “114 PEOPLE SHOT IN 112 DAYS”.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1308316/in-bernalillo-county-114-people-shot-in-112-days.html

On July 4, 2019, the front-page Albuquerque Journal headline read:

“APD: DETECTIVE ON DUTY FATALLY SHOOTS ARMED MAN; SHOTS EXCHANGED DURING SURVEILLANCE WORK; DETECTIVE SLIGHTLY INJURED”.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1336377/apd-detective-doing-surveillance-work-shoots-kills-armed-man.html

On Saturday, July 6, 2019 a Journal headline read “MAN CHARGED WITH SHOOTING, KILLING HIS NEIGHBOR.” The defendant allegedly shot and killed his neighbor after they got into a fight about the neighbor’s dog. The defendant claimed the victim pulled a handgun and began shooting at the defendant’s yard. The defendant claimed he went into his house, grabbed a rifle and fired back from the entrance of his house killing the victim. No handgun casings were found at the scene from the victim’s gun. A neighbor told police he saw the defendant standing on a stack of pallets outside and he had propped a rifle looking through a scope aiming it toward the victim.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1336703/man-charged-with-shooting-killing-his-neighbor.html

On Sunday, July 7, 2018 it was reported APD is investigating 4 people who were shot in a parking lot near Gold Avenue early Sunday morning. APD Police reported finding blood and shell casings, then received information that four people were taken to hospitals throughout the city suffering from gunshot wounds. APD reported they located a vehicle with “multiple impacts and visible firearms.” The vehicle was sealed, and police were seeking a search warrant.

https://www.koat.com/article/four-people-shot-in-downtown-albuquerque/28311592

NEWS DISCREDITS CLAIMS ABQ CRIME IS DOWN

The news reports and headlines reflect just how violent Albuquerque has become. All the recent headlines undercut Mayor Keller’s July 1, 2019 press conference to announce a decline in all categories of crime for the first 6 months of 2019 compared to the first 6 months of 2018.

These are the very type of headlines that are used in campaigns against any incumbent Mayor who tries to take credit for reducing crime rates when it’s simply not true. This article is a deep dive into comparing the City’ crime statistics for the last two years to the statistics of the last 10 years.

CRIME STATISTICS ANNOUNCED

According to the statistics released during the July 1, 2019 Keller press conference, the Albuquerque Police Department (APD) reported to the FBI that in the first 6 months of 2019, the property crimes of home burglaries were down and auto burglaries were down . Robberies, sexual assaults and murders were also down from the first 6 months of last year. Double-digit drops during the last 6 months in violent offenses included robberies, down, aggravated assaults, and rapes.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1335502/crime-declining-in-albuquerque-new-numbers-show.html

Following are the APD city crime data released for first 6 month of 2018 compared to first 6 months 2019 with the percentage of changes:

Auto Burglary:
2018: 4,882
2019: 3,044
Change: -38%

Auto Theft:
2018:2,890
2019: 1,750
Change: -39%

Commercial Burglary:
2018:971
2019: 710
Change: -27%

Residential Burglary:
2018: 2,046
2019: 1,242
Change: -39%

Robbery:
2018: 1,051
2019: 550
Change:-48%

Homicide:
2018: 39
2019: 32
Change: -18%

Rape:
2018: 203
2019: 144
Change: -29%

Aggravated Assault:
2018: 1,727
2019: 1,163
Change:-33%

During the July 1, 2019 press conference, Mayor Tim Keller had this to say about the statistics announced:

“Crime is still far too high, and the fight is nowhere near being over. This is something for us that is about a long-term, sustained effort that we have deep resolve around, and what we’re sharing today at least shows we believe these efforts are at least pushing us in the right direction.”

APD Chief Geier for his part said:

“[The declining numbers are encouraging and] we’re starting to see these results, but, again, we know that people are still being victimized every day.”

CITY ONE OF 10 MOST DANGEROUS BIG CITIES

On April 25, 2019, it was reported that the website Safewise named Albuquerque one of the 10 most dangerous big cities in the nation. The city ranked 8th , up from number 12 just one year ago.

According to the KRQE news report, Albuquerque had the highest property crime rate, with more than 73 per 1,000 people. The study compared trends in wealth distribution, graduation rates and ethnic diversity.

The report states that “the top 10 most dangerous metro cities have a violent crime rate that is 3.8 times higher than the national average. Albuquerque’s violent crime rate (per1,000) was 13.69.

St. Louis and Detroit topped the list of most dangerous communities, while Corrales was named the safest community in New Mexico. Cities were ranked based on FBI crime report statistics and population data for the most recent year available which was 2017.”

https://www.safewise.com/blog/safest-metro-cities/

https://www.krqe.com/news/albuquerque-ranks-among-nations-top-10-most-dangerous-big-cities/

CITY NUMBER ONE IN AUTO THEFTS THIRD YEAR IN A ROW

On June 26, 2019 it was announced in its annual report by the National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB) that Albuquerque metropolitan statistical area for the 3rd year in the row is ranked number #1 in auto thefts in the country. The #1 ranking is despite the decrease in auto thefts. The Albuquerque metropolitan statistical area includes the 4 counties of Bernalillo, Sandoval, Torrance and Valencia counties.

The country as has seen a decrease in auto theft overall, but Albuquerque area has made even bigger and more significant gains in reducing auto thefts. According to the annual NICB report, in 2018 almost 2,700 fewer cars were stolen in the Albuquerque area than the year before, a 27% decrease. In 2017, 1,096 cars were stolen per 100,000 residents and in 2018 that figure was 780 cars stolen per 100,000 residents.

Notwithstanding the decrease in auto thefts, it was not enough to reduce the Albuquerque metropolitan statistical area as the number one ranking area in the country for stolen vehicles per capita in the country. While the Albuquerque area had fewer stolen vehicles in 2018 than in 2017, the city of Albuquerque saw a slightly higher decrease of 29%. According to APD data, there have been 1,135 fewer stolen vehicles so far this year over the same time period last year. (2019: 1,750 compared to 2018: 2,890)

https://www.koat.com/article/albuquerque-comes-in-1-in-auto-thefts-nationally-again/28188855

https://www.abqjournal.com/1333048/abq-auto-thefts-drop-but-metro-still-no-1.html

CITY’S 2008 TO 2018 CRIME STATISTICS

Albuquerque’s FBI Uniform Crime statistics for the years 2008 to 2018 reveal just how bad violent crime has increased in Albuquerque over the last 10 years. Violent crimes include murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assaults. Property Crimes include burglary, larceny and motor vehicle theft. The hard numbers for the last 10 years reflect that crime has not declined much and that like a waive on a beach, it had “ebbed and flowed” over the years.

The number of HOMICIDES reported each year from 2008 to 2018 are:

2008: 38
2009: 56
2010: 42
2011: 35
2012: 41
2013: 34
2014: 30
2015: 42
2016: 61
2017: 72
2018: 65

The number of RAPES reported each year from 2008 to 2018 are:

2008: 370
2009: 326
2010: 338
2011: 264
2012: 278
2013: 439
2014: 402
2015: 404
2016: 381
2017: 473
2018: 461

The number of AGGRAVATED ASSAULTS reported each year from 2008 to 2016 are:

2008: 2,960
2009: 2,597
2010: 2,971
2011: 2,910
2012: 2,740
2013: 2,803
2014: 3,121
2015: 3,273
2016: 3,846
2017: 4,213
2018: 3,885

The total number of VIOLENT CRIMES (murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault combined) reported each year from 2008 to 2018 were:

2008: 4,718
2009: 4,082
2010: 4,291
2011: 4,207
2012: 4,151
2013: 4,322
2014: 4,934
2015: 5,405
2016: 6,245
2017: 7,686 (Aggravated Assaults: 4,213, Non-Fatal Shootings: 470)
2018: 6,789 (Aggravated Assaults: 3,885, Non-Fatal Shootings: 491)

The total number of ROBBERIES reported each year from 2008 to 2018 are:

2008: 1,350
2009: 1,103
2010: 940
2011: 998
2012: 1,092
2013: 1,046
2014: 1,381
2015: 1,686
2016: 1,957
2017: 2,930
2018: 1,887

The total number of AUTO THEFTS reported each year from 2008 to 2018 are:

2008: 4,672
2009: 3,399
2010: 2,773
2011: 2,823
2012: 2,743
2013: 3,005
2014: 3,558
2015: 5,179
2016: 7,710
2017: 7,692
2018: 5,341

The total number of BURGLARIES reported each year from 2008 to 2018 are:

2008: 6,137
2009: 6,376
2010: 5,465
2011: 5,985
2012: 6,677
2013: 7,297
2014: 6,123
2015: 5,996
2016: 6,236
2017: 7,002
2018: 5,765

The total number of PROPERTY CRIMES (burglary, larceny and motor vehicle theft) reported each year from 2008 to 2018 were:

2008: 32,039
2009: 29,238
2010: 26,493
2011: 28,109
2012: 29,804
2013: 30,614
2014: 30,523
2015: 34,082
2016: 38,645
2017: 41,350
2018: 34,481

The COMBINED STATISTICS FOR PART I CRIMES (the number of incidents reported) each year from 2008 to 2018 are as follows:

2008: 36,757 total reported crimes
2009: 33,329 total reported crimes
2010: 30,784 total reported crimes
2011: 32,316 total reported crimes
2012: 33,955 total reported crimes
2013: 34,936 total reported crimes
2014: 35,457 total reported crimes
2015: 39,487 total reported crimes
2016: 46,665 total reported crimes
2017: January to June: 24,770 (Full year numbers unavailable)
2018: 42,091

SOURCES:

https://www.cabq.gov/police/annual-reports/uniform-crime-reports

https://www.dps.nm.gov/index.php/107-uniform-crime-reports

https://www.cabq.gov/police/documents/police-crime-stats-2019-03-18.pdf

2017 AND 2018 CRIME STATISTICS SHOW DECLINE

Comparing full year statistics for 2017 and 2018 shows a decline in the percentages for one year. Review of the city’s crime statistics for the entire year of 2018 show the largest decreases in the property crimes of auto burglary, auto theft, commercial burglary, and residential burglary, and robbery.

The crime statistics for the entire years of 2017 and 2018 are as follows:

VIOLENT CRIME FOR 2017 AND 2018

HOMICIDES:
2017: 72
2018: 65
Change: -10%

RAPE:
2017: 473
2018: 461
Change: -3%

AGGRAVATED ASSAULTS FOR 2017 AND 2018
2017: 4,213
2018: 3,885
Change: -8

NON-FATAL SHOOTINGS FOR 2017 AND 2018:
2017: 470
2018: 491
Change: +4

ROBBERY FOR 2017 AND 2018:
2017: 2,930
2018: 1,887
Change: -36%

PROPERTY CRIMES FOR 2017 AND 2018:

AUTO BURGLARY:
2017:12,999
2018: 9,218
Change: -29%

AUTO THEFT:
2017: 7,692
2018: 5,341
Change: -31%

COMMERCIAL BURGLARY:
2017: 2,298
2018: 1,918
Change: -17%

RESIDENTIAL BURGLARY:
2017: 4,704
2018: 3,847
Change: -18

https://www.abqjournal.com/1261926/apd-release-crime-stats-for-2018.html

DECLARING GUN VIOLENCE “PUBLIC HEALTH THREAT”

On April 8, 2019, Mayor Keller and APD Officials announced several proactive and reactive initiatives designed to combat gun violence in the City and declaring gun violence a “public health risk.”

The specific initiatives announced include:

1. Using data from APD’s Real Time Crime Center to focus on areas with a heavy concentration of gun violence and identify any patterns and putting more officers in those areas.

2. Forming units of officers called Problem Response Teams in each area command. The Problem Response Teams will be made up of officers who don’t take calls for service but will be available to help community members as they need it. After a violent crime, the teams, along with Albuquerque Fire Rescue, will visit the neighborhood and provide resources or information.

3. Identifying those who are selling firearms illegally to felons or juveniles.

4. Working with agencies and universities to conduct research on gun violence as a public health issue.

5. Implementing a standardized shooting response protocol that police must follow within the first 72 hours of a reported crime. APD intends to collect and test all casings at shooting scenes and intends to purchase new equipment and technology that can assist detectives in investigating gun crimes.

6. APD is in the process of hiring additional personnel for the crime lab and securing technology that will increase efficiency around DNA testing including automating the entire unit. The unit that tests DNA and the unit that tests latent fingerprints will be split in an attempt to reduce a backlog of evidence that needs to be tested.

7. Increasing the use of the National Integrated Ballistic Information Network and the Problem Response Teams. The National Integrated Ballistic Information Network program is used to identify which guns have been used in multiple crimes by analyzing all casings they can find at violent crime scenes where a firearm has been discharged.

8. Use of a placard police officers can hang on doors to encourage residents to call with information about a crime.

https://www.petedinelli.com/2019/04/09/four-very-violent-days-in-a-violent-city-apd-declares-violent-crime-as-public-health-issue/

https://www.abqjournal.com/1301057/police-to-focus-on-gun-violence.html

INCREASING SIZE APD POLICE FORCE

APD’s intends to spend $88 million dollars beginning last year in the 2018-2019 fiscal year, over a four-year period, with 32 million dollars of recurring expenditures, to hire 322 sworn officers and expand APD from 878 sworn police officers to 1,200 officers. The massive investment is being done in order to full fill Mayor Tim Keller’s 2017 campaign promise to increase the size of APD and return to community-based policing as a means to reduce the city’s high crime rates. Last year’s 2018-2019 fiscal year budget provided for increasing APD funding from 1,000 sworn police to 1,040. This year’s 2019-2020 fiscal year budget has funding for 1,040 sworn police.

On June 17, 2019, the Albuquerque Police Department (APD) announced that is has hired 116 police officers during the first full budget year of the Mayor Tim Keller Administration. A very large percentage of those officers are lateral hires from other departments. It is projected that with the additions APD will reach 957 sworn officers by the end of July, 2019 and reach 981 by the end of the summer. For the 2019-20129 fiscal year that begins July 1, 2019 APD has been is budgeted for 1,040 full time sworn officers.

According to an APD news release, about two-thirds of the 116 new officers are already patrolling the streets and taking calls for service. The remainder are expected to be on duty by the end of the summer. Of the 957 police officers APD now has, 533 are patrolling the streets taking calls for service.

https://www.koat.com/article/116-new-officers-hitting-abq-streets/28069973

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

The feel good news is that the hard numbers reflect that for ONE full year of 2017 to 2018 and the first 6 months of 2019 crime is going down in the major categories. The feel bad news is the 10-year statistics confirms crime is not down, especially when it comes to violent crimes. In a nutshell, violent crime is not down and the statistics need a dramatic turnaround before people will feel safe.

During their July 1, 2019 press conference, Mayor Tim Keller and APD Chief Michael Geier to their credit did not claim victory in reducing the crime rates in Albuquerque. That would have been a major political mistake given the communities’ anger over crime in general. The hard numbers released do not yet reflect a trend that can be relied upon for any sort of a victory lap on their part.

Crime has spiked so much in Albuquerque for the last 10 years that , even with a 30% or more decrease in each category as announced by Mayor Tim Keller and Chief Michael Geier, the numbers are still way too high, especially in violent crime and they both know it. Violent crime and auto thefts are at unacceptable levels. A sign of the times of how bad things have gotten in the City is when no one believes Mayor Tim Keller and APD Chief Geier’s when they both say that crime is going down.

Albuquerque’s population has remained relatively the same for the last 4 years yet the hard number of crimes continue to rise. In other words, the city is experiencing more incidents of crime with fewer residents. When a city is ranked for crime with FBI crimes statistics , it uses a per capita basis which is so many crimes per 100,000 population and it tends to skew the numbers toward the worst-case scenario.

During the July 1, 2019 press conference APD Chief Geier seem to acknowledge the problem when he called the numbers encouraging, but went on to say many in the community have not personally felt the progress. Chief Geier said “We’re starting to see these results, but, again, we know that people are still being victimized every day.”

When it comes to crime, public perception overrides reality. If you’re a victim of a crime, it’s hard to accept the statistics that crime is down. For any politician to claim credit for reduction in crime is always very foolish and dangerous given how volatile crime really is. During winter months, crime tends to go down and during summer months, it tends to spike, very much like a wave on a beach flowing in and then flowing out.

It is more likely than not that the reduction in the overall percentages of crime can be attributed in part to APD adding 116 more police officers to the force in one year, with at least 70 experienced laterals recruited from other departments. More cops mean more patrolling the streets and making more arrests. APD will be spending $88 million over 3 more years to hire 300 more cops to patrol streets assuming they can actually recruit and hire that many. There have been no reports on how successful APD has been declaring gun violence a “public health risk” and if the announced proactive and reactive initiatives have been at all successful.

A declining trend in crime would be reflected in a 4 to 5 year period . The question that must be asked is “Can APD sustain the declining numbers?” The answer is no one really knows for sure. It’s “not a sure bet” that simply hiring more cops will bring the crime rates down. Increasing the number of sworn police could actually increase the numbers because more cops mean more arrests and prosecutions.

No doubt Mayor Tim Keller is hoping crime will decline significantly before he runs for another term in 2021. Keller campaigned on the issue of making public safety the number one priority of his administration, returning to community-based police, reducing crime and implementing the Department of Justice reforms. If he does not deliver on his promises, even after spending millions to increase the size of APD, he may not get elected to another term.

Mayor Keller and APD Chief Geier need to continue their efforts. Only time will tell if crime is indeed going down and what headlines will be used in the 2021 Mayor’s race.

_________________________________________________

POSTSCRIPT:

This blog article generated a lot of reaction on the web page from Keller defenders who are way too sensitive. The article points out crime rates have gone down for 18 months and what is being done. Having press conferences every 3 months to announce declining crime rates when the national rankings still have city in top 10 for violent crime and auto thefts is trying to make a mole hill (declining rates) into a mountain (acceptable crime levels). The article also points out what Keller and Geier said about the need to do more and it is suggested that people don’t try to make something bigger than it is. The article gave all the good news for the last year and a half, the Mayor’s comments as well as the policy to declare violent crime a public health threat and outlines the gains in APD staffing.

What was said at the end of the article is “The feel good news is that the hard numbers reflect that for ONE full year of 2017 to 2018 and the first 6 months of 2019 crime is going down in the major categories. The feel bad news is the 10-year statistics confirms crime is not down, especially when it comes to violent crimes. In a nutshell, violent crime is not down and the statistics need a dramatic turnaround before people will feel safe. …. Mayor Keller and APD Chief Geier need to continue their efforts. Only time will tell if crime is indeed going down and what headlines will be used in the 2021 Mayor’s race”. No doubt Keller will be pointing to his own positive headlines.

The sources for the above statistics can be reviewed at the below links:

For 2008 to 2016 statistics see:

https://www.cabq.gov/police/annual-reports/uniform-crime-reports

https://www.dps.nm.gov/index.php/107-uniform-crime-reports

For 2017 statistics see:

https://www.cabq.gov/police/documents/police-crime-stats-2019-03-18.pdf

https://www.abqjournal.com/1224917/fbi-abq-crime-rate-up-in-2017.html

Uniform Crime Reports

For 2018 statistics see:

https://www.cabq.gov/police/documents/police-crime-stats-2019-03-18.pdf

https://www.abqjournal.com/1261926/apd-release-crime-stats-for-2018.html

https://www.dps.nm.gov/index.php/107-uniform-crime-reports

On Wednesday, July 3, 2019, ABC NEWS and the WASHINGTON POST released a poll conducted after the two 2020 Presidential Democratic debates. The poll is an in-depth analysis of how the Democratic candidates did during the debate and the type of bump their performances helped with their candidacies.

Quoting the poll analysis: “[The] ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone June 28-July 1, 2019, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,008 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 5.5 points, including the design effect, for the sample of 460 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents covered in this report. Partisan divisions in the full sample are 29-23-37 percent, Democrats-Republicans independents. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates of Rockville, Md.”

You can review the entire report analysis entitled “Harris Scores in Debate Performance While Electability Keeps Biden in Front” with the bar graphs, percentage numbers and polling tabulations at the blow link:

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1206a12020Democrats.pdf

Following is the written poll analysis of the ABC News/Washington Post written in full by Gary Langer of Langer Research Associates with the bar graphs and numbers edited out of the written analysis:

“A wide advantage in perceived electability boosts Joe Biden in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, but he lags in having new ideas, is challenged by Bernie Sanders and faces a debate-energized Kamala Harris in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll. In current preferences, 29 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents support Biden and 23 percent favor Sanders, with 11 percent apiece for Harris and Elizabeth Warren. The number of undecided potential voters has dropped sharply after the first debates, with gains in support for each of these candidates. Others are in the low single digits, at best.

Given the time to register to vote in advance of the caucus and primary season, these results are among all leaned Democrats. Among those who are registered now, Biden goes to a 30-19 percent advantage over Sanders, with 13 percent for Harris and 12 percent for Warren. Crosscurrents underlie candidate preferences in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. A broad plurality, 45 percent, says Biden has the best chance to beat Donald Trump in the general election, but only 18 percent say he has new ideas, trailing Sanders, Warren and Harris alike. At the same time, 41 percent say Harris stood out in her debate performance, easily the leader in this gauge, a wide 15 to 22 percentage points ahead of Biden, Sanders and Warren. And among those who actually watched both Democratic debates last week, the number picking Harris as a standout performer soars to 72 percent, well above any of her competitors.

An impact is apparent: Among the half of leaned Democrats who did not watch either of the two nights of debates, just 5 percent support Harris for the nomination. Among those who watched the debate in which she appeared, by contrast, her support swells to 20 percent. That places her numerically second among Thursday-night viewers; Biden has 28 percent support in this group; Warren, 17 percent; and Sanders, 15 percent. Warren also does better among viewers of her debate than non-viewers, 17 vs. 8 percent support. Showing strength among highly engaged leaned Democrats, she reaches 22 percent, virtually matching Biden’s 25 percent, among those who watched both debates. There’s no meaningful difference in Biden’s support across debate-watching groups, and Sanders gets the booby prize – higher support among those who did not watch the debates, 26 percent, vs. 15 percent among those who watched the debate in which he appeared and 10 percent among those who watched both nights. Comparative inattention fits with his younger support profile; 18- to 29-year-olds, his best group, are least likely to have tuned in.

These results are from a question in which respondents were read a list of Democratic candidates. Asking preferences in an open-ended format produces similar results (25-18-9-9 percent, Biden-Sanders-Harris-Warren), with gains for each in comparison with April – Biden +8 points, Sanders +7, and Harris and Warren both +5. Those with no opinion dropped sharply, 35 percent in April compared with 19 percent now (and 6 percent when the full list is read). In another measure, intended participation is high: Seventy-two percent of leaned Democrats say they’re certain to vote in their state’s primary or caucus. That’s up from 56 percent in November 2015, when it was first asked in the last cycle, a race that pitted just two prime candidates. Current results are similar to what they were in November 2007, the last crowded (albeit not this crowded) Democratic race.

DEBATE REAX

Harris’ debate rating comes among those who actually tuned in. Respondents were asked which candidates stood out as having done an especially good job in the debates, with up to four names accepted. Among those who watched both nights, a vast 72 percent picked Harris for a standout performance. Fewer but 58 percent named Warren. Neither Biden nor Sanders, nor others, remotely approach these levels. (Pete Buttigieg comes closest, cited by 31 percent.)

GROUPS

Notably among groups, while Harris challenged Biden on the subject of race in their debate, his support is especially strong among blacks, 41 percent, 12 points higher than it is overall. Harris’ support, by contrast, is not differentiated by race and ethnicity – 11 percent among blacks and an identical 11 percent among all leaned Democrats. Warren, for her part, has notably low support among nonwhites, 5 percent. Biden’s support continues to skew older, Sanders’ younger: Among leaned Democrats age 50 and older, Biden leads Sanders by a broad 39-11 percent. Among those younger than 50, Biden’s support falls to 21 percent and Sanders’ rises to 32 percent. (There are no such age gaps in support for Warren or Harris.)

Among other group differences, Sanders’ support plummets among the most-educated group, while Warren’s rises with education. And by ideology, Warren does better with liberals compared with moderates. (Biden’s better number among moderates than liberals isn’t statistically significant.)

While the contest pits prominent Democratic women and men alike, there are no substantial differences in candidate choice on the basis of gender. Men divide 26-26-10-9 percent among Biden-Sanders-Harris-Warren; women, by a similar 30-21-12-13 percent.

WHO ELSE?

Former Vice President Biden and 2016 candidate Sanders are, of course, the best-known figures in the Democratic race. While they’re in front, it’s striking that most Democrats and Democratic leaners are not entirely wedded to their current choices; just about a quarter, 26 percent, say it’s “extremely” important to them that their candidate wins the nomination. That includes about the same number just among Biden’s supporters, 29 percent.

Still, asking second-choice preferences finds another advantage for Biden: Among those who don’t support him now, 33 percent pick him as their next-choice candidate. By comparison, among those who don’t currently favor Sanders he’s second choice for 24 percent. Warren is second choice for 17 percent of those who don’t back her now, as is Harris for 16 percent.

That said, another Biden advantage – being seen as the candidate best able to defeat Trump – is unlikely to be all it will take for Biden to prevail. It’s notable that, among those who pick Biden on this measure, 45 percent nonetheless support another Democratic candidate.

ISSUES

Health care is the top-rated issue for Democrats and Democratic leaners, and they side heavily with a so-called Medicare-for-all system, a central topic of the debates. Seventy-seven percent of leaned Democrats support a government-run, taxpayer-funded universal health care system like Medicare, essentially the same as in an ABC/Post poll back in 2003. Support remains high, 66 percent, even if it meant doing away with private insurance. Health care, moreover, is cited by 89 percent of leaned Democrats as a top issue in their vote in the general election, leading a list of nine items.

Eighty-five to 79 percent cite gun violence, issues of special concern to women, immigration, global warming and the economy as highly important, followed by foreign policy, 72 percent; abortion, 69 percent; and taxes, 60 percent. Preference in handling two of these issues is generally similar to candidate support overall.

On health care, 27 percent of leaned Democrats pick Sanders as the candidate they trust most and 25 percent pick Biden, followed by 13 percent for Warren and 7 percent for Harris. On immigration, another focus of the debate, 21 percent pick Biden; 17 percent, Sanders; 12 percent, Harris; and 8 percent Warren, with an additional 8 percent favoring Julián Castro.

Viewed another way, Biden and Sanders are essentially tied among leaned Democrats who focus on any of five top issues – health care, issues of special concern to women, immigration, global warming and the economy. One remaining item differentiates them – gun violence, on which Biden has a 10-point advantage. Warren and Harris compete for third position on all these.

While most issue preferences don’t sharply differentiate candidate choices, there are some differences in issue emphasis among groups. The economy, for example, is rated as highly important by 85 percent of those without a college degree vs. 67 percent of college graduates, and by 84 percent of those with less than $50,000 in annual household incomes vs. 70 percent of those in the $100,000-plus bracket.

GENDER

Some gender gaps also emerge. Democratic and leaned-Democratic women are 12 points more apt than men to cite health care as highly important, 95 percent vs. 83 percent. Women are 17 points more likely than men to cite taxes as a major issue, 69 vs. 52 percent. And in the widest gap, women are 23 points more likely to call abortion a top issue, 79 vs. 56 percent.”

COMMENTARY AND ANALSIS

Based on the ABC NEWS and the WASHINGTON POST poll, former Vice President Joe Biden did not do as well as was expected and California Senator Kamala Harris has closed the gap on him. Sanders is dropping and Warren is also closing the gap. No doubt Biden will be finding that henceforth, things are going to get tougher within his own party to win the nomination.

Notwithstanding, polls are nothing more than a snapshot of public opinion at the time, and one excellent debate performance or one poor debate performance does not win a nomination, especially in a crowded field.

The next Democrat debate will have fewer on stage in that many will not secure an onstage debate spot if they do not have a certain percentage of support in the polls and have not raised campaign money from a certain number of donors. You can anticipate more break out performances, even from Joe Biden at the next debate.

It’s going to be a very long primary year. Ultimately the Democratic party need to get behind the most electable candidate no matter who it is, otherwise Trump will be elected a second term.

Originally, there were 16 candidates who were running in the 4 City Council seats that will be on the November 5, 2019 ballot with 12 of those candidates seeking public financing. The qualifying periods to collect qualifying $5 donations and the 500 nominating petition signatures are now over.

All city council candidates were required to collect 500 qualifying petition signatures from registered voters. The number of $5.00 donations needed in each city council district to qualify for public financing differs based on voter registration. The breakdown is: in District 2: 413 donations, in District 4: 393 donations, in District 6: 323 donations and in District 8: 425 donations.

CANDIDATES FOR CITY COUNCIL

District 2 incumbent City Councilor Isaac Benton has 5 opponents who qualified for the ballot seeking to replace him. The candidates are: Steve Baca (D), Joseph Griego (D), Robert Raymond Blanquera Nelson (D), Zack Quintero, (D) and Connie Vigil, (I). David B. Bearshire failed to gather the necessary petition signatures. 6 of 7 candidates in District 2 originally sought public financing and 4 have qualified: Issac Benton, Joeseph Griego, Robert Raymond Blanquerq Nelson and Zachery A. Quintero.

District 4 has 4 candidates who qualified for the ballot and running to replace Brad Winter. Those candidates are: Brook L. Bassen, Athena Ann Christodoulou, Ane C. Romero, Hailey Josselyn Roy. Mary Sue Flynt did not qualify for the ballot. 4 candidates in District 4 sought public financing with 3 securing the necessary $5.00 qualifying donations and they are Brook L. Bassan, Ane C. Romero and Haley Josselyn Roy.

District 6, incumbent City Councilor Pat Davis has one challenger and she is Gina Naomi Dennis (D) who is an attorney, neighborhood activists and who was a Bernie Sanders delegate in 2016 to the Democratic National Convention. Both Davis and Dennis qualified for the ballot and secured public finance.

District 8 City Councilor Trudy Jones has one challenger and she is S. Maurreen Sakowin who qualified for public financing. Trudy Jones has elected to finance her campaign with private financing and has never sought public financing of her campaigns. Both Trudy Jones and S. Maurreen Sakowin collected the 500 petition signatures.

RANK VOTING SYSTEM REJECTED BY CITY COUNCIL

Currently, under Albuquerque’s election code, a candidate for city councilor must receive at least 50% plus 1 of the vote to win an election without a run off outright. If no candidate receives 50% plus one of the vote, the top two finishers face off in a separate runoff election and whoever gets the 50% majority vote wins the election. Democrat City Councilors Isaac Benton and Pat Davis, both running for reelection, and Republican City Councilor Brad Winter, who is not running for reelection, introduced and ordinance adopting a rank choice voting system for the upcoming November 5, 2019 election. Ranked-choice voting is also known as “instant runoff”. Rank choice voting is an alternative to the city’s existing runoff election system and it is used in Santa Fe municipal elections.

With rank choice voting, voters rank all candidates in a race by preference. If, after the initial tally, no candidate has at least 50% of the first-place votes, the threshold required to win a City Council races, the candidate with the fewest first-preference votes is eliminated and the ballots are counted again. The process continues until a single candidate emerges with a majority of votes, thus eliminating the need for a separate runoff election. In other words, the ultimate winner of the election is determined with a mathematical calculation of votes listed at once on a single ballot. An elimination process is used and it eliminates the need for a runoff election and all campaigning time and costs associated with a runoff.

On June 18, 2019, the Albuquerque City Council voted 4 to 5 not to have “rank choice voting” with Isaac Benton, Pat Davis, Brad Winter and Diane Gibson voting YES and with Cynthia Borrego, Don Harris, Trudy Jones, Klarissa Peña and Ken Sanchez voting it NO. Notwithstanding the Council voting it down, a competing proposal is still pending to ask voters on the November 5, 2019 ballot question if they approve of moving to a ranked-choice system for 2021 and the ballot question will have at least one more hearing.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1329804/city-council-turns-down-move-to-use-rankedchoice-voting-ex-but-voters-may-get-their-say-on-the-issue-in-november.html

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Rank choice voting or instant runoff gives incumbents and unfair advantage because of their name identification. Ranked choice voting is a dramatic overhaul of the city election process and for that reason it should be placed on the November 5, 2019 ballot for voters to decide if it should be used for future elections.

Now that all the candidates have secured their positions on the ballot, the races no doubt will heat up and voters can expect knocks on the door from candidates seeking their support. All too often, it is only during election time that voters see and hear personally from their City Councilors. Usually the only time voters see their City Councilors is in news reports or at press conferences to take credit for something they had little to do with.

Voters need to take advantage of the opportunity to ask the candidates where they stand on the issues that are critical to their districts. Hopefully voters will ask Isaac Benton, Pat Davis and Trudy Jones why they were such strong supporters of the disastrous ART Bus project and why they allowed the destruction of one of the finest police departments in the country by failing to exercise their oversight authority and calling into question the previous administration’s management of APD.

When it’s all said and done, voters must understand who they are voting for and if a candidate does indeed represent their best interests and not the candidates own personal agenda. One question that should be asked of the candidates is if they are committed to serving their full 4 year term and not run for higher office before serving the term which has happened most recently with elected officials.

On June 28, 2019, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham announced the creation of a Cannabis Legalization Working Group. The task force will consist of at least 19 members including the Democratic and Republican legislators who sponsored unsuccessful legislation this year to authorize and tax recreational marijuana sales at state run stores. The group also includes representative of a labor union, sheriff’s department, health care business, Native American tribes, medical cannabis businesses, a county government association, and commercial bank and hospital company. Albuquerque City Councilor Pat Davis has been appointed the Chairman of the cannabis legalization working group.

https://www.krqe.com/top-stories/new-mexico-governor-seeks-ideas-for-recreational-pot-law/

The Working Group or Task Force will make recommendations to the governor that will be incorporated into proposed legislation to be introduced in the 2020 legislative session. Governor Lujan Grisham said after the Legislature adjourned on March 21, 2019 that she would add the issue of legalizing recreational marijuana use to the agenda of next year’s 30-day session.

Eleven states thus far have legalized recreational marijuana. Candidate for Governor Lujan Grisham said last year that she supports legalizing the recreational use of marijuana for adults but with a few caveats: it must be done in a way that addresses workplace intoxication and driving under the influence and it must be done in a way that keeps it away from children and meet other requirements of regulation, production, sale and distribution.

Governor Lujan Grisham in announcing the task force had this to say:

“I want New Mexico’s introduction and management of recreational cannabis to be the envy of the country … We can and will incorporate lessons learned from other states so that New Mexico provides for a well-regulated industry that, crucially, does not infringe on or harm our expanding medical cannabis program, upon which so many New Mexicans rely.”

Legalization of recreational marijuana has proven to very lucrative for the 11 states that have done so. It has also increased problems for those states. Governor Lujan Grisham suggested that revenue generated by legalizing recreational marijuana use and taxing its sales could be used at least in part to bolster New Mexico’s mental health treatment system.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1334408/nm-governor-creates-group-to-study-cannabis-legalization.html

SHORT LEGAL HISTORY OF RECREATIONAL USE OF MARIJUANA LAWS

Since 1970 the federal government has classified marijuana as an illegal Schedule I Control Substance, making it illegal to produce, possess and sell marijuana. However, voters have had a chance to weigh in on state legalization of marijuana in multiple states.

The first state to legalize medical marijuana was California in 1996. In 2007, New Mexico enacted laws allowing the medical use of marijuana, but not the recreational use. As of 2018, the most recent defeat of a medical marijuana measure was in Florida in 2014.

As of 2019, 33 states and Washington, D.C., have passed laws legalizing or decriminalizing medical marijuana. 13 states have legalized the use of cannabis oil, one of the non-psychoactive ingredients found in marijuana, for medical purposes. Seventeen of the states that have legalized medical marijuana did so through citizen-initiated ballot measures, and the other 16 did so through legislative action.

2012 is when the first states legalized marijuana for recreational use in state law. As of 2019, in nine states voters have approved ballot measures to legalize the recreational use of marijuana and Vermont legalized recreational marijuana through legislative action.

https://ballotpedia.org/History_of_marijuana_on_the_ballot

2019 NEW MEXICO LEGISLATURE’S ATTEMPTS TO LEGALIZE RECREATIONAL USE OF MARIJUANA

Attempts to legalize recreational marijuana use in New Mexico have been extremely difficult during the last 8 years, predominately because of strong opposition from the former Republican Governor “She Who Must Not Be Named” and those conservative Republican and Democrat legislators who should be named. During the 2019 New Mexico Legislature which ended March 15, 2019, that changed with the election of Governor Mitchell Lujan Grisham and the most progress was made when one bill actually made it through the New Mexico House of Representatives.

HOUSE BILL 356

On March 7, 2019 the state House passed House Bill 356 (HB 356) with a two-vote majority of 36 to 34. HB 356 was the first recreational marijuana proposal ever passed by one of New Mexico’s legislative chambers. HB 356 was legislation that was the result of bipartisan efforts and talks involving House Democrats and Senate Republicans. Every Republican Representative in the House voted against HB 356 joining 10 Democrats in opposition to it. All previous efforts of marijuana legalization have failed in the Senate because of skepticism from conservative Democrats in the Senate.

HB 356 bill included a provision for state run and regulated stores. The compromise bill required people to keep receipts showing they purchased their marijuana legally, and they could carry only 1 ounce of cannabis and couldn’t grow it on their own. House Bill 356 was a broad marijuana legalization proposal and dedicated some of the tax revenue from cannabis sales to research into cannabis impairment, purchasing roadside testing equipment for law enforcement and to train police officers as drug recognition experts when drivers are stopped. The bill made it clear that employers could still maintain drug-free workplace policies.

The bipartisan HB 356 stalled in the Senate and never made it to the full Senate for passage. The legislation failed when the session was adjourned on March 21, 2019.

SENATE BILL 577

Senate Bill 577 was the New Mexico Senate’s version of legislation that would legalize the recreational use of marijuana. It included state run stores. The 3 Republican Senator sponsors Cliff Pirtle, Mark Moors and Craig Brandt argue that legalization is inevitable and that state-run stores would help limit exposure to children and allow New Mexico regulators to respond to problems. State run stores appealed to many because it would have given the state strong regulatory controls and make it easier to keep cannabis products away from children.

Under the Senate proposed legislation, New Mexico itself would get into the cannabis business by operating a network of retail stores to sell marijuana to adults 21 and older. A state “Cannabis Control Commission” would have been created to operate cannabis shops by summer 2020. The marijuana would have been sold on consignment, meaning the state would not own the cannabis.

Under the Senate Bill, recreational marijuana would have been grown by private businesses under a complex regulatory system and sold only at state-run stores, with limited exceptions. It would have given the state tremendous control over where and how the products would have been sold and who could have gotten their product to customers. According to the Drug Policy Alliance, the system proposed for state run recreational cannabis stores would have been the first of its kind for recreational marijuana in the United States.

Senate Bill 577 never made it through the State Senate and the legislation failed when the session was adjourned on March 21, 2019.

CHANGES MADE TO NEW MEXICO’S MEDICAL CANNABIS LAW

There are over 70,000 people enrolled statewide in New Mexico’s medical cannabis program. During the 2019 New Mexico Legislative session, the legislature enacted changes to the medical cannabis laws giving more workplace protections to those enrolled in the program. In April, 2019, Governor Lujan Grisham signed into law the changes made by the legislature to the program and the changes took effect on July 1, 2019.

Two of the major changes involve work place protections for those enrolled in the program and are:

1. The law now provides that it is unlawful in most circumstances for an employer to fire or otherwise discipline a worker based on allowable conduct under the state’s medical marijuana program. It is not clear whether this change in the law will affect employers with policies that require drug testing of applicants before they are hired, with a positive test precluding their hiring regardless of whether they have a medical marijuana card.

2. The second major change to the law specifies that employers can still establish policies barring use of medical marijuana on the job or showing up under the influence of the drug and take action against employees who violate the policy. Concern has been raised in the business community that anything that would limit an employer’s ability to enforce their drug-free workplace programs would be problematic.

New Mexico State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino, the sponsor of the legislation, said in an Albuquerque Journal interview the changes are not intended to render drug-free workplace policies untenable, but acknowledged lawmakers may have to revisit the issue in the future to further fine-tune language in the law.

Three other major changes to New Mexico’s medical cannabis law include:

1. Allowing medical marijuana in schools, under certain circumstances.
2. Extending the length of an approved patient identification card from one year to three years.
3. Mandating that a licensed medical marijuana user cannot be denied an organ transplant on the basis of their participation in the program.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1335093/medical-cannabis-law-changes-may-spark-confusion-ex-business-leaders-concerned-about-enforcing-drugfree-workplace-rules.html

NEW MEXICO REDUCES CRIMINAL PENALTIES

During the 2019 New Mexico legislative session, lawmakers enacted legislation that reduces criminal penalties for possession of small amounts of marijuana. In April 2019, Governor Lujan Grisham signed into law Senate Bill 323 that makes first-time possession of up to a half ounce a petty misdemeanor offense, punishable by a $50 fine. It also decriminalizes possession of drug paraphernalia, making New Mexico the first state to do so in the country. The reduced criminal penalties go into effect on July 1, 2019.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Albuquerque City Councilor Pat Davis has been appointed the Chair of the Cannabis Legalization Working Group. Pat Davis has a reputation as opportunist and always promoting himself and his own personal political agenda. Last year, Davis ran for US Congress in the First Congressional District but withdrew from the race when he polled at 3% and could not raise the money to run a viable campaign. Before Davis withdrew from the congressional race, Davis accused the then Democrat front runner of being a “racist” which was an absolute lie and he has never apologized for it. While he served on the City Task Force formed to propose changes to the City Public Finance law, Davis declined to advocate meaningful changes to Albuquerque’s public finance laws making it easier for candidates to qualify for public finance. The only change Davis agreed to was increasing the amount of money candidates get and not the process of collecting the donations to qualify and not expanding the time to collect qualifying donations.

The likelihood of the success of the task force should be considered high given the fact that it appears bipartisan and will consist of at least 19 state lawmakers, Cabinet secretaries, law enforcement officials and medical marijuana executives that will study other states’ experiences with legalizing cannabis use. The task force members consist of people that have actually worked on the issue of marijuana legalization and legislation on a statewide basis, they understand it completely and how the New Mexico legislature operates. You cannot say the same for the appointed chair of the task force. A member of the legislature such as State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino who has an understanding of the issue should be appointed to chair the task force.

With the creation and appointment of the Cannabis Legalization Working Group Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham is laying the groundwork for a legalization bill to make it to her desk in 2020. With over 6 months before the 2020 legislative session starts in January, it is very likely that the task force will be able to come up with a framework for a few proposed bills ready to go by late November, giving enough time for interim legislative committees to review the proposals and perhaps even finding sponsors.

One major option that should be considered is placing the issue on the ballot for voters to decide, which has been done in other states. Further, the task force will provide the opportunity to fine tune the language in the medical cannabis laws giving more workplace protections to those enrolled in the program so as not to render drug-free workplace policies untenable.

POSTSCRIPT

You can review related media coverage at the below links:

https://www.kob.com/politics-news/recreational-marijuana-bill-advances-in-legislature-/5273956/?cat=500

https://www.abqjournal.com/1289448/marijuana-compromise-emerges-in-capitol.html

https://www.krqe.com/news/bill-legalizing-recreational-marijuana-to-hit-senate-floor/1839034177

https://www.kob.com/politics-news/recreational-marijuana-bill-advances-in-legislature-/5273956/?cat=500

In 2014 the landmark case of “Yazzie-Martinez” was filed by the New Mexico Center on Law and Poverty and the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund. The lawsuit alleged that the state of New Mexico and the previous Republican Governor Administration violated the constitutional rights of at-risk students by failing to provide them with a sufficient education in reading, writing and math.

On July 20, 2018, after a two-week trial and days of expert testimony, a Santa Fe District Court found that the constitutional rights of at-risk students were indeed violated and ordered the state to properly fund the Public Education Department and implement new policies. Soon after assuming office on January 1, 2019, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham announced that her Administration would not appeal the District Court ruling setting the stage for public education reform and funding for the 2019 New Mexico legislative session.

After almost a full year after the court ruling and close to 4 months after the 2019 legislative session, the Plaintiff’s filed a status report on the State’s Public Education Department’s (PED) compliance with the Court’s ruling. Further, the PED announced a significant shortfall in fund programs for state prekindergarten classes in the coming school year.

This article is intended to give an overview of the court ruling, legislative funding, the court filed status report, and the reported shortfall in funding for pre-kindergarten programs.

DETAILS OF DISTRICT COURT RULING

The landmark lawsuit filed against the state and the Public Education Department alleged a severe lack of state funding, resources and services to help students, particularly children from low-income families, students of color, including Native Americans, English-language learners and students with disabilities. The court ruling confirmed what went on for 8 years with the state’s at-risk children under the former Republican Governor “She Who Must Not Be Named”. The Judge found that it was clear that many New Mexico students are not receiving the basic education in reading, writing and math they should be receiving in our public-school system. According to the court ruling, during the 8 years of the former Republican Governor Administration at-risk children finish each school year without the basic literacy and math skills needed to pursue post-secondary education or a career.

In the blistering written opinion, the Judge wrote:

“[The evidence presented at trial] proves that the vast majority of New Mexico’s at-risk children finish each school year without the basic literacy and math skills needed to pursue post-secondary education or a career. … Indeed, overall New Mexico children rank at the very bottom in the country for educational achievement. … The at-risk students are still not attaining proficiency at the rate of non-at-risk students … and the programs being lauded by [the Public Education Department] are not changing this picture.”

In New Mexico, 71.6% of the state’s public-school students come from low-income families, and 14.4% are English-language learners. Further, 14.8 percent of students have disabilities, and 10.6 percent are Native American. Judge Singleton addressing proficiency rates for Native American students said that in the past 3 years, those students’ reading proficiency was at 17.6% and their math proficiency was at 10.4%.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1200069/questions-surround-ruling-on-nm-education-funding.html

The Court found that New Mexico does not have enough teachers and that New Mexico teachers are among the lowest paid in the country and stated:

“The evidence shows that school districts do not have the funds to pay for all the teachers they need. … [An example is] Gadsden, one of the better performing school districts in the state, has had to eliminate over 53 classroom positions and 15 essential teachers since 2008.”

The Court also faulted the former Republican Governor’s Administration’s failure to provide access to technology in rural districts.

The Judge addressed the state teacher evaluation system implemented by the previous Republican Governor Administration by saying:

“[The teacher evaluation system] may be contributing to the lower quality of teachers in high-need schools. … In general, punitive teacher evaluation systems that penalize teachers for working in high-need schools contribute to problems in this category of schools.”

The Court rejected the former Republican Governor Administration’s arguments that no new funding is needed because at-risk student performances are improving.

In the original court ruling filed on July 20, 2018, the State was given until April 15, 2019 to present plans to come into compliance.

NEW MEXICO LEGISLATURE PED FUNDING

The 2019 New Mexico Legislature that ended March 15, 2019 approved a $7 Billion State Budget. The $7 Billion State budget includes a $3.2 Billion Public Education Department (PED) budget. The PED approved budget represents a 16% increase over last year’s budget. Included in the budget is $500 million in additional funding for K-12 education and increases in teacher pay. The massive infusion of funding to public education is the result of the District Court ruling that ruled the state of New Mexico is violating the constitutional rights of at-risk students by failing to provide them with a sufficient education.

Early childhood programs were also given a major increase in funding by the 2019 New Mexico legislature. Under the enacted 2019-2020 budget, every public-school district will be allocated significantly more funding. Teachers and school administrators were also given a 6% pay raises with more money to hire teachers.

A new “Early Childhood Department” was created starting in January 2020. This was a major priority of Governor Lujan Grisham. The new department will focus state resources on children from birth to 5 years of age. A major goal of the new department, coupled with other investments, is more New Mexico children growing up to secure gainful employment as adults who don’t require government services.

STATUS REPORT

On Friday, June 21 2019, the Plaintiff’s who prevailed in the landmark public education case against the state filed a pleading giving their update to the district court on the status of the case. According to the update pleading filed, the state and lawmakers still have not done enough to ensure all students have access to an adequate education.

According to the Plaintiff’s status report:

“The court was quite clear about what needed to be done. But instead of doing these things, the legislature again simply followed its old mode of operation: it took last year’s budget, made some adjustments, with some steps forward and some steps backwards, and, in the end, left us with a patchwork system of education and inadequate funding that continues to fail our students … The legislature failed to sufficiently fund the education budget to ensure schools had sufficient resources for their at-risk students. … [the] plaintiffs have determined from [their research] that the outcome of the 2019 Legislative Session was anything but the ‘moonshot’ as claimed by legislative leadership. … Instead, after making required raises, districts are left with little or no money to implement additional programming, supports and services for at-risk students.”

The Plaintiff’s report to the district court alleges that notwithstanding the 16% increase and the $447 million spending infusion for public schools, the state and lawmakers still have not done enough to ensure all students have access to an adequate education. The plaintiffs argue the boosts in education funding primarily went to pay for mandated educator salary increases. The Legislature authorized pay raises of at least 6% for teachers and other school staff for the coming school year and set starting teacher pay at a minimum of $41,000 per year.

The update court filing takes notice of the uptick in an at-risk factor within the state’s school funding formula and highlights monies set aside for extended learning programs. However, the pleading says more needs to be done to make sure kids have the needed teachers, programs and services. The plaintiffs did not ask the judge to intervene and are working with the PED on an implementation plan to remedy and comply with the judge’s orders.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1334649/filing-state-not-doing-enough-for-atrisk-students.html

$7.3 MILLION MORE NEEDED FOR PRE KINDERGARTEN PROGRAMS

On June 20, 2019, officials with the Public Education Department (PED) reported that an additional $7.3 million is needed to fund programs for state prekindergarten classes in the coming school year. The additional funding is due to a significant increase in demand of the students who have applied for the 2019-2020 school year.

Last year, approximately 6,700 kids attended full- and half-day programs. According to PED officials, 7,767 applications have been submitted for the coming school year. Among the 7,767 applicants a much larger interest is shown in full-day programs. Full day programs are more expensive than half-day programs.

Last year, 3,554 kids were enrolled in half-day pre-kindergarten programs and 3,220 enrolled in full-day programs. According to PED officials, more than 5,000 students are applying to get into 2019-2020 full-day programs. Just 2,671 student applications have been submitted for half-day.

In 2018-2019, PED was allocated a total budget of $36.7 million for pre kindergarten programs. For the 2019-2020 school year, PED’s total pre-kindergarten budget is $42.5 million. According to the Legislative Finance Committee (LFC), the amount has gone up significantly over a decade, increasing by at least $9 million.

The Public Education Department is scrambling to determine where the needed $7 million could come from, including seeking money from New Mexico lawmakers or shifting around internal funds. PED can ask for more money in the form of supplemental appropriations from the Legislature, those appropriations can be authorized only when the full Legislature is in session, which is not scheduled to happen until January.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1330707/ped-7m-more-needed-to-fund-201920-prek-requests.html

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

The 2019-2020 approved budget enacted by the New Mexico legislature became effective July 1, 2019, meaning absolutely not a single cent of the $7 Billion Dollar budget could have been spent by any government agency until then. The $7 Billion State budget includes a $3.2 Billion Public Education Department (PED) budget with a massive 16% infusion of additional funding. It is for this reason it is very hard to determine how much credibility should be given to the June 21, 2019 Plaintiff’s status report when it reports:

“The legislature failed to sufficiently fund the education budget to ensure schools had sufficient resources for their at-risk students. … [the] plaintiffs have determined from [their research] that after making required raises, districts are left with little or no money to implement additional programming, supports and services for at-risk students.”

It is likely the State will be submitting it’s own status report in response to the June 21, 2019 Plaintiff’s status report and give it own version of what has happened in carrying out the Court’s order.

It is very hard to determine how much credibility should be given to the June 20, 2019 Public Education Department claim that an additional $7.3 million is needed to fund programs for state prekindergarten classes in the coming school year. The statistics offered by PED to explain the shortfall are that approximately 6,700 kids attended full-day and half-day programs last year and that 7,767 applications have been submitted for the coming school year. Among the 7,767 applicants, a much larger interest is shown in full-day programs but PED offers no details. In other words, PED is claiming it needs $7.3 Million more for 167 more students without giving a breakdown of the number of full-day applicants in the 7,767-applicant pool.

The Appropriation Committees and Education Committees of both the New Mexico House and Senate need to convene interim committee hearing and start asking some hard questions as to how the PED $3.2 Billion Budget is actually being spent.

It is going to take far more than one legislative session to repair the damage done during the last 8 years to the State’s education system. It will take years of sustained effort before New Mexico’s public education system will get better. It will take a real commitment by the New Mexico Legislature to realize that New Mexico has an education crisis and now is the time to act. For these reasons, the debate over using a small portion of the state’s $17 billion Land Grant Permanent fund for early childhood education, care and intervention needs to continue. Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham should continue her efforts to give major attention to use of the State’s Land Grant and Permanent Fund to finally solve many of our early childhood education, care and intervention problems.

You can read a related blog article at the below link:

NM’s Disgraceful Legacy of Child Hunger, Illiteracy and Well Being; Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s Goal To Ending Child Hunger Within One Year

The number one favorite photo opportunity of former Republican Governor “She Who Must Not Be Named” over her entire 8 years as Governor of New Mexico, was reading children’s books to kids ages 6 to 10 in public schools. New Mexico has learned the real reason why the Republican Governor was reading to the children: the kids were not proficient enough to read their own books out loud to the Republican Governor. Last year in a District Court landmark case, the court ruled that the former Republican Governor’s failed education policies contributed to New Mexico’s failed public education system.

It is also likely all those New Mexico school children the Republican Governor was reading to could only hear the sound of their empty stomachs “grumbling” from being empty from hunger. New Mexico’s is ranked #1 in child hunger. New Mexico has a shameful legacy of child hunger, child illiteracy and child well being, but there are reasons for hope.

DISGRACEFUL LEGACY OF CHILD HUNGER: STATE RANKS #1 IN CHILD HUNGER

Feeding America is the largest hunger-relief organization in the United States. It has a network of 200 food banks and 60,000 food pantries and meal programs scattered throughout the United States. Altogether, the network of organizations it has provides meals to more than 46 million people each year.

Every year, Feeding American conducts a survey known as the “Map the Meal Gap” annual report to identify the extent of at risk of childhood hunger and “food insecurity.” Food insecurity is defined as “inability of individuals or families to know where a portion of their food will come from at any given time.”

According to the just-released 2019 report from Feeding America, 24.1% of children and young teenagers age 18 and younger in New Mexico, or one of every four children, are at risk of childhood hunger and food insecurity making New Mexico’s rank dead last in the country. In 2018 the “Map the Meal Gap” also ranked New Mexico as dead last, and in the 2017, the state ranked 49th.

Arkansas is this year’s 49th place holder with 23.6% of children at risk for childhood hunger followed by Louisiana ranked 48th with 23% and Mississippi at 47th with 22.9%. According to the “Map the Meal Gap” report, the states with the fewest percentage of kids who are at risk of food hunger are North Dakota, ranked first with 9.8% of kids, followed by Massachusetts at 11.7%, New Hampshire with 12.3% and Minnesota with 12.6%.

What is striking is how pervasive hunger in New Mexico really is. The Map the Meal Gap reported that 324,000 people of all ages or 15.8% in the State of New Mexico are at risk of hunger. The report ranked the worst five counties in New Mexico with the highest percentage of child hunger and they are: McKinley County with 33.5%, Luna County with 33.4%; Cibola and Catron Counties each with 30.4%; and Sierra County 27.8%.

According to Roadrunner Food Bank spokeswoman, Sonya Warwick, the actual cause of the problem are many factors and she said:

“In some instances, that food insecurity results from adults in a family having unreliable seasonal jobs, or hourly workers suddenly finding that their hours were reduced, people who are unemployed or underemployed, those facing homelessness, domestic violence or health issues. … [Many people fall into the gray area] “where they’re still very poor, but make just over what might qualify them for federal food assistance programs.”

The biggest single factor causing New Mexico’s child hunger and “food insecurity” is the number of children who live in poverty. New Mexico is near the top of this list also. A spokeswoman for New Mexico Voices for Children, said 27% of kids in our state live in poverty, ranking us 49th on this list, tied with Mississippi, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Only Louisiana fares worse, ranked in 50th place with 28% of kids living in poverty.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1310364/new-mexico-again-leads-nation-in-child-hunger.html

DISGRACEFUL LEGACY OF CHILD ILLITERACY: STATE RANKS LAST IN PUBLIC EDUCATION

On January 22, 2019, the annual Quality Counts report by the national Education Week magazine was released. The study found that New Mexico is dead last or 50th out of 50 states and the District of Columbia, with a score of 66.2, or a D when it comes to public education. Mississippi edged out New Mexico with a D+ this year, earning a score of 66.8. Nevada earned 65 or a D grade. The national studies say that a high poverty rate is hindering children.

Quality Counts, now in its 22nd year, reviews three components of each state’s education system: funding distribution, student achievement and what the report calls its “chance-for-success” index. New Mexico earned a D + in the chance for success index which measures an education system’s effect on children from preschool to college and career. The state showed slight gains in the number of children enrolled in early childhood education programs and a bump in its high school graduation rate over the year.

New Mexico earned its worst grade, a D-, in achievement. Scores on standardized tests in the state remain dismal, with just 19.7% of students in grades 3-11 showing proficiency in math and 28.6% proficiency in language arts on the most recent round of PARCC exams, administered by a consortium of states called the Partnership for Assessment of Readiness for College and Careers.

https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/education/report-n-m-ranked-next-to-last-for-public-education/article_19cf834f-9c1b-55dd-b863-762805fbc4b9.html

On July 20, 2018, a Santa Fe District Court ruled in the landmark case of “Yazzie-Martinez”, filed in 2014 by the New Mexico Center on Law and Poverty and the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund alleging that the state of New Mexico and the Republican Governor Administration was violating the constitutional rights of at-risk students by failing to provide them with a sufficient education in reading, writing and math. The lawsuit alleged a severe lack of state funding, resources and services to help students, particularly children from low-income families, students of color, including Native Americans, English-language learners and students with disabilities.

In the blistering District Court ruling against New Mexico’s Public Education System under the previous Republican Governor Administration, the District Court found “the vast majority of New Mexico’s at-risk children finish each school year without the basic literacy and math skills needed to pursue post-secondary education or a career. … overall New Mexico children rank at the very bottom in the country for educational achievement.” According to the court ruling, in New Mexico, 71.6% of the state’s public-school students come from low-income families, and 14.4% are English-language learners. 14.8 percent of students have disabilities, and 10.6 percent are Native American.

DISGRACEFUL LEGACY OF CHILDREN LAST IN CHILD WELL BEING

The Kids Count Data Book is published annually by the Annie E. Casey Foundation, a nonprofit that tracks the status of children in the United States. The evaluation examines the percentage of children in poverty, the share of fourth graders proficient in reading and a variety of other factors such as economic well-being and health care. The last two reports have been particularly revealing as to how bad things became for New Mexico’s children under the previous Republican Governor “She Who Must Not Be Named”

2018 KIDS COUNT ANNUAL REPORT

In 2018, for the first time in five years, the 2018 Kids Count Data Book found a steep drop in New Mexico’s ranking for health care measures which previously was a bright spot for the state. In 2018, New Mexico fell last among states when it comes to the economic, educational and medical well-being of its children. According to the 2018 Kids Count Data Book, 30% of New Mexico’s children were living in poverty in 2016, compared to 19% nationwide that year, the earliest figures available. In educational measures, the report says 75% of the state’s fourth-graders were not proficient in reading in 2017, compared to 65% nationally, and 80% of eighth-graders were not performing up to par in math in 2017, compared to 67% across the U.S.

http://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/education/report-new-mexico-ranks-last-in-child-well-being/article_0f6865fc-d34a-5050-9f74-21680e98a2a5.html

2019 KIDS COUNT ANNUAL REPORT

On June 17, 2019, the 30th edition of the Kids Count report was released. For the third time in seven years, New Mexico came in dead last out of 50 states for child well-being. The state was ranked 50th in 2016, again in 2017 and now in 2018 continuing in to 2019. According to the study, Louisiana was ranked 49th this year, bumping Mississippi up to 48th. Not at all surprising, it is New Mexico’s widespread poverty and lagging education among Native American and rural Hispanics that brings down the state’s overall rankings.

The Kids Count Data Book rankings are based on 16 indicators under four major domains:

1. Economic well-being
2. Education
3. Health and
4. Family and community.

ECONOMIC WELL BEING

Under the rating category for economic well-being indicators, the statistics break down as follows:

27% of New Mexico children are living in poverty which was a 3% improvement from last year.
28% of New Mexico children live in homes where an unusually large portion of family income goes toward housing costs, a 4% percentage point improvement.
36% of New Mexico children live in homes where parents lack secure employment which is virtually the same from last year.
10% of teens are neither working nor attending school, up 1% point from the previous year.

EDUCATION

Under education indicators, not much has changed from the 2019 report. The following statistics were reported:

56% of young children are not in school, a 1% point improvement.
75% of fourth graders are not proficient in reading, unchanged from the previous year.
80% of eighth graders are not proficient in math, unchanged from the previous year.
29% of high school students do not graduate on time, unchanged from the previous year.

HEALTH INDICATORS:

Under health indicators, the following statistics were reported:

9.5% of babies are born with low birth weight, a half percentage point worse than last year.
5% of children have no health insurance, unchanged from the previous year.
There are 32 child and teen deaths per 100,000 which is a 1 percentage point improvement.
6% of teens report abusing drugs or alcohol, a 1 percentage point improvement.

FAMILY AND COMMUNITY INDICATORS

Under Family and Community Indicators the following statistics were reported:

45% of children live in single-parent families, a 3% increase from last year.
16% of children live in families where the head of household lacks a high school diploma, a 2% increase from last year.
24% of children live in homes in high poverty areas of the state, 2% worse than last year.
28 babies are born to teens per 1,000 births, a 2% point improvement over last year.

GOVERNOR MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM PROMISES TO END CHILD HUNGER

On Wednesday, June 26, 2019, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham gave the keynote address at the annual “Kids Count Conference” organized by the nonprofit New Mexico Voices for Children and spoke to 500 people gathered for the conference.

During her key note address, Governor Lujan Grisham promised to end child hunger within one year by saying:

“We will look poverty in the face … It is an evil in our state, and it must be dealt a death blow. … Maybe that’s too high of a goal, I don’t care. … New Mexico needs to institute universal food security services and programs in this state and every single philanthropic partner has to be dedicated to making sure no child in this state will ever go hungry again, and I don’t care if it’s a universal snap program. … [It’s going to take] a “wrap around approach” [to fix problems created by the previous administration]. [The national Kids Count ranking] are not indicative, however, of who we are, and they are not indicative of what we are capable of. I unequivocally reject the notion that this is the way it will be because this is the way it has been. … Being 50th in anything is unacceptable … but when our children are at risk, it makes me sick in the pit of my stomach.”

Governor Lujan Grisham said she hopes to organize efforts by philanthropic groups and public agencies to get groceries to hungry New Mexicans, especially children and told the conference:

“Every single person can do something.”

During her keynote speech, Governor Lujan Grisham announced that the state’s Children Youth and Families Department (CYFD) receives about 900 referrals a month in Albuquerque alone. According to the Governor, the referrals usually detail allegations of child abuse and neglect. The governor said the state only has enough people to investigate 200 of those case.
For news media coverage see the below links:

https://www.abqjournal.com/1333618/governor-poverty-an-evil-in-our-state.html

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico-news/gov-lujan-grisham-aims-to-end-child-hunger-in-nm-within-a-year/5404065/

TANGIBLE REASONS FOR OPTIMISM

Democrat Governor Lujan Grisham took office January 1, 2019. After just 7 months in office, much has been set in motion that if sustained will indeed will make the goal to end child hunger achievable and make sure New Mexico children will get a quality education.

EDUCATION BUDGET ENACTMENT

On March 15, 2019, Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham finished her very first 60-day Legislative session as Governor. By all accounts, it was one of the most productive sessions in a long time when it comes to the future wellbeing of New Mexico children.

Financial stress over the budget process was greatly reduced from years past by a nearly $2 Billion in additional revenue generated by the Southern New Mexico oil boom and increased royalties filling the state coffers. The 2019 Legislature enacted over a $7 billion state budget. It was the largest budget ever enacted in state history. The legislature appropriated a total education budget at a whopping $3.2 Billion, 16% over last year’s budget, out of the total budget of $7 Billion.

Included in the budget is a $500 million in additional funding for K-12 education and increases in teacher pay. The massive infusion of funding to public education is the result of a District Court ruling that ruled the state of New Mexico is violating the constitutional rights of at-risk students by failing to provide them with a sufficient education. The District Court found that many New Mexico students are not receiving the basic education in reading, writing and math they should be receiving in our public-school system.

Early childhood programs were given a major increase in funding. Under the enacted 2019-2020 budget, every public-school district will be allocated significantly more funding. Teachers and school administrators will be given 6% pay raises or more with more money to hire more teachers.

IS MORE NEEDED?

Notwithstanding the 16% increase in education budget over last year’s budget given by the 2019 New Mexico Legislature, the plaintiffs in the landmark District Court case “Yazzie-Martinez” filed a status report on June 29, 2019 describing the state’s efforts to comply with the court order as not being sufficient. They say the state and lawmakers still have not done enough to ensure all students have access to an adequate education, a right guaranteed under the state constitution. You can review the full report at the below link:

https://www.abqjournal.com/1334649/filing-state-not-doing-enough-for-atrisk-students.html

PROTECTING CHILDREN

During her keynote address to the annual “Kids Count Conference” Governor Lujan Grisham told the audience that that the one thing that has kept her up at night is when she learned that the state Children, Youth and Families Department (CYFD) receives hundreds more referrals based on child abuse and neglect allegations than it has the staff to handle. According to the Governor, the problem is being addressed by expanded hiring efforts to boost staffing and other temporary measures.

Albuquerque and New Mexico for the last 4 years have been shocked and haunted with the news of the tragic and brutal killing of children by their own parents. Media reports all too often have included reports where those children had fallen through the cracks of law enforcement and the New Mexico’s Children, Youth and Families Department. Lujan Grisham’s enacted budget that takes effect July 1, 2019 calls for an additional $36.5 million for the chronically understaffed CYFD. Under the enacted budget, 102 new social workers are to be hired by the agency’s child’s Protective Services Division. During the Kid’s Count Conference, Lujan Grisham revealed that the state has held hiring events to recruit more CYFD employees and said:

“CYFD is boosting hiring in their protective services division. We did a rapid hire series of events statewide.”

DEPARTMENT OF EARLY CHILDHOOD

A new “Early Childhood Department” was created by the 2019 New Mexico Legislature starting in January 2020. This was a major priority of Governor Lujan Grisham. The new department will focus state resources on children from birth to 5 years of age. A major goal of the new department, coupled with other investments, will be more New Mexico children growing up to secure gainful employment as adults who don’t require government services.

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY

The rankings and financial numbers relating to New Mexico’s children are depressing and staggering with some downright disgraceful:

** New Mexico ranks 50th for at risk of childhood in hunger and “food insecurity.”
** New Mexico is dead last among states when it comes to the economic, educational and medical well-being of children.
** 27% of New Mexico kids live in poverty, ranking New Mexico 49th on this list.
** 75% of the state’s fourth-graders were not proficient in reading in 2017, compared to 65% nationally, and 80% of eighth-graders were not performing up to par in math in 2017, compared to 67% across the U.S.
** In 2019, the New Mexico legislature approve an education budget of $3.2 Billion out of a $7 billion budget, increasing the education budget by 16% over last year’s budget which still may not be enough.
**The 2019 New Mexico legislature approved $36.5 million for the chronically understaffed Children, Youth and Families Department after 8 years of budget cuts.

When Governor Lujan Grisham told the Kids Count conference “Being 50th in anything is unacceptable … but when our children are at risk, it makes me sick in the pit of my stomach”, the truth is, ranking dead last in child well being, first in child hunger and last in education should make every New Mexican sick to our stomach. It is very difficult to read, let alone accept, that New Mexico ranks dead last the third year in a row for child well-being. With that in mind, the state now has only one direction to go now and that is up when it comes to the welfare of our children.

There is a direct correlation between a family’s overall income and child well being. When employment rates go up, child well being also goes up. After 10 years of the great recession, the New Mexico’s unemployment rate is appears to be finally coming down. The national unemployment rate in April, 2019 was 3.6 percent, down from 3.8 percent in March 2019 and 3.9 percent in April 2018. On April 17, 2019, the New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions reported that New Mexico’s adjusted unemployment rate was 4.3 percent, when in 2010, New Mexico’s unemployment rate was 8.1%. Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/190696/unemployment-rate-in-new-mexico-since-1992/

The 16% increase in the education budget, the creation of the Department of Early Childhood, the $36.5 million increase for the understaffed Children, Youth and Families Department which includes funding for 102 new social workers for the agency’s child’s Protective Services Division, and the decline in New Mexico’s unemployment rate, reflects that progress is indeed being made towards improving the future of New Mexico’s Children.

No doubt many will say Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham’s promise to end child hunger within one year was for show and not realistic. It is likely these are the same people who believed that the former Republican Governor reading to kids was not for show and that those kids could read their own books. At least real commitments have now been made. Governor Lujan Grisham no doubt realizes voters will hold her to her promise, but even if it takes her entire 4 years in office to end child hunger, not just the one year as promised, and improve New Mexico’s rankings in child wellbeing, so be it and her legacy will last generations.

It will take time before New Mexico’s public education system will get better and our child well being ranking made any better. For that reason, the debate over using a small portion of the state’s $17 billion Land Grant Permanent fund for early childhood education, care and intervention needs to continue. Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham should continue her efforts to give major attention to use of the State’s Land Grant and Permanent Fund to finally solve many of our early childhood education, care and intervention problems.

With a little persistence and hard work, in 4 years, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham could be doing photo ops with kids ages 6 to 10 reading their children’s books to her while at the same time looking forward to the lunch being prepared in their school cafeteria. However, it will also take a real commitment by the New Mexico Legislature to realize the crisis is real and now is the time to act. Our kids’ lives, health, education and future depend on it.

You can read a related blog article at the below link:

Enacted NM $3.2 Billion Dollar Public Education Budget Claimed Not To Be Enough; $7.3 Million Shortfall For Pre-Kindergarten Programs Announced