The Albuquerque Journal has now released its first and long anticipated poll in the Democratic primary for New Mexico Governor.

The Albuquerque Journal poll is only poll taken and published by the newspaper

The biggest reason the Albuquerque Journal poll is so important is that it was released two weeks before the election.

You can read the full Albuquerque Journal article on the poll here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/1177219/journal-poll-big-lead-for-lujan-grisham-us-representative-has-almost-4to1-margin-over-closest-challenger.html

The results of the poll are as follows
Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Gisham: 57%
Las Cruces State Senator Joe Cervantes: 9%
Albuquerque Businessman Jeff Apodaca: 15%

UNDECIDED: 19%

The poll was conducted May 20-24 and was a statewide sample of 444 registered Democratic voters who cast ballots in the 2014 and/or 2016 primary elections.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

BREAKING DOWN THE NUMBERS

What is very impressive is that Lujan Grisham outpaced both Apodaca and Cervantes in virtually all parts of the state.

Congresswoman Lujan Grisham was especially strong in the Albuquerque area.

Lujan Grisham secured 65% of voters surveyed in Albuquerque compared to 10% for Apodaca and 9% for Cervantes.

Lujan Grisham’s support in Albuquerque is not surprising given that she represents the city in congress and she is a former Bernalillo County Commissioner and is very popular.

Cervantes is a State Senator from Las Cruces while Apodaca is originally from Las Cruces being the son of former Governor Jerry Apodaca who was a State Senator from Las Cruces.

Cervantes was strongest in Las Cruces and southwestern New Mexico where 19 percent of Democratic voters polled said they would support him.

According to the poll, male Democratic voters surveyed said they were twice as likely to vote for Apodaca than female voters.

20% of men survey said they would vote for Apodaca compared with 11 percent of women surveyed.

Not surprising, Apodaca had more support among Hispanic voters than among Anglo voters, but Lujan Grisham still held a sizable edge among both groups.

Both Cervantes and Apodaca have gone negative on Lujan Grisham in both debates and television ads, but it has had no effect on her popularity.

POLITICAL COMMENTARY

Brian Sanderoff and Research & Polling has an impressive 98% track record of accurately predicting political races in New Mexico for over 40 years.

Research and Polling conducts polls exclusively for the Albuquerque Journal and no longer does polling for political candidates.

Polls tend to become self-fulfilling prophecies and this one is a blowout.

When published two weeks in advance of any election, the polls have an enormous impact on a candidate’s viability and their ability to raise money.

The impact that the Journal poll will have on the governor’s race will be swift and immediate.

This is what you call a “political blowout” brewing in two weeks.

The poll will probably effectively end the candidacies of Joe Cervantes and Jeff Apodaca when it comes to fund raising.

The poll will add to the enormous and commanding lead Michelle Lujan Grisham has against both Apodaca and Cervantes.

The poll will increase her ability to raise and spend more campaign funds to counter punch the negative ads now being employed by her opponents.

CONCLUSION

After seeing the Albuquerque Journal poll, I have no doubt that both Cervantes and Apodaca had the political equivalent to being punched in the gut that is probably a knockout punch for both.

I have been there and done that four years ago.

When such polls such as this come out, it is more excruciating than anyone cares to admit.

Polls like this tend to be extremely discouraging to candidates and their supporters.

Such polls make it difficult to focus let alone carry on with a smile on your face.

Notwithstanding, Apodaca and Cervantes must and will carry on with their campaigns and need to be respected for their efforts.

I do not envy Republican nominee Steve Pearce, and his loss will probably be even bigger come November.

Loosing in a major landslide is no way to end a political career.

The Albuquerque Journal has now released its first and long anticipated poll in the First Congressional District being vacated by Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham.

The Journal poll is the fourth known poll taken over the last two months in the First Congressional race to replace Michelle Lujan Grisham who is running for Governor.

The main reason the Albuquerque Journal poll is so important is that it was released two weeks before the election.

You can read the full Albuquerque Journal article on the poll here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/1176833/martine-zhaaland-sedillo-lope-zin-tight-race.html

The 6 Democrats running for congress are:

Albuquerque City Councilor Pat Davis
Former Democratic Party Chair Debra Haaland
Former UNM Law School Associate Dean Antoinette Sedillo Lopez
Immigration and tax attorney Damian Lara
Former United States Attorney for the District of New Mexico Damon Martinez
Albuquerque businessman Paul Moya

The poll was conducted by Brian Sanderoff, President of Research and Polling.

Research and Polling has the most impressive track record of any New Mexico polling company with over 40 years of polling in New Mexico races.

Research and Polling has an impressive 98% track record of accurately predicting political races in New Mexico.

Research and Polling conducts polls exclusively for the Albuquerque Journal and no longer does polling for political candidates.

The Albuquerque Journal Poll conducted by Research and Polling was of 395 registered Democratic voters in the 1st Congressional District who cast ballots in the 2014 and/or 2016 Democratic primary elections and who said they were very likely to vote once again in this year’s June 5 primary election.

The poll has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points, making the race “too close” to call by pollsters

The Journal poll results are as follows:

Damon Martinez: 22%
Debra Haaland: 19%
Antoinette Sedillo Lopez: 17%
Pat Davis : 5%
Damian Lara: 4%
Paul Moya: 3%
UNDECIDED: 29%

What is surprising is that 29% of the voters are still undecided.

According to the Albuquerque Journal poll, with four Hispanics in the race, Damon Martinez is the clear favorite among Democratic Hispanics polling with 25% of those respondents vowing to support him at the ballot box.

Antoinette Sedillo Lopez polled at 19 percent among Hispanic respondents while Debra Haaland had just 9 percent support among Hispanics.

Across the country, more and more woman are running for elective offices and are winning, with New Mexico being no exception.

Both Antoinette Sedillo Lopez and Debra Haaland have emphasized greatly their gender and background in their candidacies, but the Journal Poll suggest they are splitting the female vote and that Damon Martinez also has significant female support and a lead with male voters.

According to the poll, Debra Haaland secured 21% of the females polled, Damon Martinez tied with 21%, and Antonette Sedillo Lopez secured 18% of the females polled.

Damon Martinez, Antoinette Sedillo Lopez and Debra Haaland are also splitting the male vote but Martinez has more male support than the two women.

Debra Haaland secured 16% of males polled, Antoinette Sedillo Lopez secured 16% of the males polled and Damon Martinez secured 24% of males polled, 8% above Haaland and Sedillo Lopez.

All three top tier candidates split and received the lions share of likely voters with respect to age groups and education.

The Journal poll when compared to three other polls that have been released clearly show that Damon Martinez has momentum that is going to be difficult to stop.

FIRST POLL TAKEN: THE PUBLIC POLICY POLL (PPP)

A poll was conducted the weekend of Friday, April 13, 2018 to Sunday, April 15, 2018 and consisted of contacting 508 registered democrats with the poll having a margin of error of 4.4%.

It was Pat Davis who commissioned the “auto-phone” opinion poll with Public Policy Poll (PPP) with the link to the full poll here:

https://www.scribd.com/document/377327356/New-Mexico-1-Results

The PPP poll results were as follows:

Debra Haaland: 15%
Antoinette Sedillo Lopez: 15%
Pat Davis : 11%
Damon Martinez: 7
Damian Lara: 4%
Paul Moya: 4%
UNDECIDED: 43%

SECOND POLL TAKEN: VOTEVETS POLL

A poll commissioned by VoteVets was conducted on May 13 and 14 by Lake Research in Washington, DC.

The organization that commissioned the poll is promoting Damon Martinez.

Notwithstanding who paid for the poll, it should be considered highly reliable.

The poll was of 390 “likely” Democratic voters and the poll used professional phone interviews as opposed to the “auto-phone” poll conducted by PPP and commissioned by Pat Davis.

Professional phone interview polls are considered more reliable and far more expensive than “robo-call” polls.

The poll showed an extremely tight race between three candidates with “undecided” voters still winning.

The margin of error for the poll was 5%.

The results of the VOTEVETS poll are as follows:

Antoinette Sedillo Lopez: 25%
Damon Martinez: 23%
Debra Haaland: 20%
Pat Davis : 5%
Damian Lara: 5%
Paul Moya: 5%
UNDECIDED: 27%

THIRD POLL TAKEN: JOE MONAHAN BLOG POLL

On Thursday, May 24, New Mexico Politics With Joe Monahan released a “robo call” poll showing Damon Martinez winning but calling the race too close to call.

The poll was taken of 305 likely Democratic voters in the 1st Congressional Disitrict.

The margin of error of the Monahan poll is 5.6% which is slightly higher than most polls which usually come in with 4% to 5% margins of error.

The results of Monahan Poll are as follows:

Damon Martinez: 27%
Antoinette Sedillo Lopez: 23%
Debra Haaland: 19%
Damian Lara: 5%
Paul Moya: 5%
Pat Davis : 4%
UNDECIDED: 19%

The fact that 19% of the voters were still undecided makes the race to close to call.

ALBUQUERQUE JOURNAL ENDORSEMENT

On May 22, 2018, the Albuquerque Journal did a solid and positive endorsement of Damon Martinez that could not have been any better, even though it made mention of Paul Moya.

The full Albuquerque Journal editorial can be read here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/1175043/journal-recommends-martine-zfor-cd1-democratic-primary.html

Progressives, especially Bernie Sander supporters, would say that the Albuquerque Journal endorsement is a kiss of death to them, but it is not when you have at least 4 progressives in the race with older, more conservative Democrats who still read the Albuquerque Journal and who still vote.

The Journal editorial gave a summary of Damon Martinez’s impressive record of public service, pointing out that he is an Albuquerque native who earned a bachelor’s degree, Master of Business Administration and law degree from the University of New Mexico, and served as New Mexico’s U.S. attorney from 2014 to 2017 until he was fired by Donald Trump and has been an officer in the U.S. Armed Forces for 15 years, enlisting after the September 11 attacks.

The Journal endorsement also said Martinez worked in Congress for former US Senator Jeff Bingaman and then former US Representative and now US Senator Tom Udall, serving as Bingaman’s legislative assistant and later as Udall’s legislative director and “for those reasons knows how the system works and would be able to hit the ground running if elected to Congress.”

Former US Senator Jeff Bingaman has also endorsed Damon Martinez and is helping him raise money and the endorsement should have a major impact on progressive democrats.

ATTACK ADS TO COMMENCE AGAINST DAMON MARTINEZ

There have been no negative attack commercials by the candidates, until now.

It has been reported by Joe Monahan that a $200,000 ad buy from an independent expenditure group affiliated with EMILY’s List has been made to attack Damon Martinez.

(NOTE: The EMILY’ List ad is available on YOUTUBE and can be seen here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dd_PXguKr74 )

EMILY’s List is a political action committee (PAC) that has the almost exclusive goal to help elect pro-choice Democratic female candidates to office.

The sinister sounding ad criticizes Damon Martinez for not prosecuting any Albuquerque Police Officer for 27 fatal police shootings.

The ad is very misleading in that such prosecutions are the job of the Bernalillo County County District Attorney, not the US Attorney, as was the case when the Bernalillo County District Attorney charged and tried two APD police officers for the killing of homeless camper James Boyd in the Sandia Foothills.

What is misleading is the failure to disclose that Damon Martinez as the United State Attorney for New Mexico was on the forefront and responsible for enforcement of the federal Court Approved Settlement Agreement (CASA) that mandates extensive reform of APD and changes to APD’s use of force and deadly force policies.

The EMILY’S List attack ads is seen as an effort to stop the momentum of Damon Martinez and increase the chances of Debra Haaland and Antoinette Sedillo Lopez.

The negative ad is to commence running on television this Tuesday, May 29, 2018.

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY ON THE CANDIDATES

It is clear comparing the four polls that the media expenditures by the three top candidates have had a major impact on the race.

The most recent Federal Election Commission campaign finance reports show that Debra Haaland led all six Democratic candidates with $836,709 in donations, Sedillo Lopez ranked second in the race for total contributions with $706,954 received and Damon Martinez was the third-highest money recipient, with $699,263.

Damon Martinez is one that has had the best return on his investment coming in from a distant 5th at first to now leading in the race with significant momentum that will no doubt continue unless he has a misstep.

Immigration and tax attorney Damian Lara reported raising $324,068 and is running TV ads that are impressive, but his candidacy has not caught on and the amount he has raised and spent has not made him competitive in the race.

http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00646612/1222300/

Albuquerque Businessman Paul Moya reported raising $191,539, he is running TV ads but his primary emphasis has been running a social media campaign running commercials on FACEBOOK to get his message out.

http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00660449/1222863/

Mr. Moya has been very impressive at forums and debates, but the impact of his social media campaign is unknown, does not show up in the polls, despite the considerable number of “views” on his FACEBOOK page which consistently run in the thousands.

Antoinette Sedillo Lopez had a minor setback to her campaign when it was reported out of the Journal Washington Bureau that she returned $2,750 in campaign donations given to her by seven attorneys who had cases pending in the Court of her husband, State District Judge Victor Lopez.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1176861/sedillo-lope-zreturns-2750-in-contributions.html

The Albuquerque Journal reported that Sedillo-Lopez has solicited donations from licensed attorneys and former students of hers at the UNM School of Law where she was a professor.

This should be considered a minor setback for Antoinette Sedillo Lopez for now but it has the potential of becoming a major setback and a black eye to her campaign if other such donations and solicitations are found and reported upon by the news media or any one of her opponents.

The one candidate that has had the biggest setback is Pat Davis.

Davis considered by many as the most progressive candidate in the race, he has high name recognition as a city councilor, but Davis has dropped in the polls, despite his use of vulgar language in a TV commercial to attack the National Rifle Association.

Davis’s embarrassing interview with conservative talk show host Tucker Carlson on FOX News about his use of vulgar language against the NRA and his understanding of automatic and semi automatic weapons did not help Pat Davis much.

The Carlson-Davis interview showed Davis is not at all ready for prime time in the United States Congress and calls into question his judgment for even appearing on FOX News.

The full Carlson-Davis interview, along with the Davis ad, can be seen at this YOUTUBE link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Zc785cM6As

All 4 polls seem to reflect that Debra Halaand and Antoinette Sedillo Lopez are splitting the more progressive and women’s vote and Damon Martinez is benefitting from that split.

Damon Martinez is considered a more traditional democrat, many progressives would say more conservative, than Debra Haaland and Antonette Sedillo Lopez despite the fact Damon Martinez has come out in favor of Medicare for all and banning of the manufacture of assault rifles.

CONCLUSION

Polls such as conducted by Research and Polling tend to become self-fulfilling prophecies.

Polls taken and published two weeks in advance of any election have an enormous impact on a candidate’s viability and their ability to raise money.

The impact that the Journal poll will have on the congressional race is to add to the momentum Damon Martinez has as well as increasing his ability to raise and spend more campaign funds.

There are still two weeks left before the primary, and with 29% still undecided, many are saying the race is too close to call.

However, in the world of politics, momentum is the single most important factor, especially two weeks before an election.

Two major questions that will need to be answered is if Damon Martinez will be able to raise enough money to offset or respond to the EMILY’S list attack ad and if the attack ads will benefit the two women in the race.

At this point in time, it is more likely than not that Damon Martinez will continue with his momentum and will be the Democratic nominee presuming he continues with his fundraising and spending and there are no missteps on his part.

However, two weeks in a congressional campaign is an eternity.

On May 24, 2018, just 18 police officer cadets graduated from the APD Police Academy that will actually go to work for APD.

These newly sworn officers will now be given on the job training with a supervisor for six months to complete their training.

Beginning January 1, 2018, APD had 878 sworn police officers and these graduates will bring APD up to the 898 level.

APD retirements are expected to be announced on July 1, 2018.

Recently, the City Council past the 2018-2019 budget that allocates funding for 1,040 full time positions.

In order to increase APD from the current 898 sworn police with the new cadets counted to 1,040 sworn by this time next year, the APD Police Academy will need to keep up with expected retirements and will have to hire at least 144 new officers either as new recruits or as lateral hires.

Based on APD Academy past performance over the past 8 years, the Police Academy will not meet the goal of recruiting and hiring 140 police officers by the end of this year, let alone to 1,200 by the end of Keller’s four year term.

The 2018-2019 fiscal year budget reports the following number of cadet graduates over the last few years as follows:

Actual number of cadet graduates for fiscal year 2016-2017: 52

In 2016, APD had 90 retirements

Actual number of cadet graduates for fiscal year 2017-2018: 43

The net gain in 2017 was 2.

Approved number of cadet graduates for fiscal year 2018-2019: 80

Mid-Year number of cadet graduates for fiscal year 2018-2019: 24

Proposed number of approved cadet graduates for fiscal year 2019-2020: 100

At the beginning of 2018, APD had 878 sworn police officers.

Mayor Keller is proposing to spend $88 million dollars, over a four-year period, with 32 million dollars of recurring expenditures, to hire 322 sworn officers and expand APD from 878 sworn police officers to 1,200 officers by implementing a hiring and recruitment program to offer incentives, pay raises and bonuses to join or return to APD in order to return to community-based policing.

The Keller Administration successfully negotiated a two-year contract with the police union providing $12.2 million dollars in hourly wage increases and longevity pay increases to new and experienced police officers which should make APD more competitive with other cities and help recruitment efforts.

A “Status Quo Projection” for Number of APD Officers was included in the APD expansion plan if the plan was not implemented

Starting Officer Count each year for the next four years without the expansion plan:

2018: 880
2019: 872
2020: 864
2021: 857

Starting Officer recruitment and lateral hires and retirements without the expansion plan:

Annual New Recruits each year for the next four years: 56 per year for a total of 224

Annual Lateral Recruits each year for the next four years: 2 per year for a total of 8

Total Annual Recruits each year for the next four years: 58 per year for a total of 232

Annual Retirements each year for the next four years: 41 per year for a total of 164

Annual Resignations each year for the next four years: 24 per year for a total of 96

Total Annual Attrition each year for the next four years: 65 per year for a total of 260

Net Loss each year for the next four years: 8 per year for a total of 32

Projected remaining Officers each year for the next 4 years without the expansion plan:

2018: 872
2019: 864
2019: 857
2020: 849

CONCLUSION

The major obstacle the Keller Administration is confronted with is the APD Academy not being able to recruit and keep up with retirements and add to grow the department.

The average number of academy graduates is usually between 35 to 40 graduates and the academy normally has only two academy classes per year for new police officers.

If APD has the same number of retirements and other departures that it had last year, the likelihood the department’s sworn officer count will actually shrink.

Retirement paperwork for police retirements need to be submitted before July 1, 2018 to allow a retiree to be eligible for cost of living adjustments (COLA) within two years and to cash out or be paid unused accumulated annual and sick leave.

APD insiders are saying moral within the Department has improved somewhat, but not enough to keep another large wave of retirements come July 1, 2018 when the new fiscal year begins.

City residents need to hope that Keller’s aggressive recruitment and expansion plan woks, but it just may be reaching for an unreachable star.

The Democratic Keller Administration and the Albuquerque Police Officers Association (APOA) police union have successfully negotiated a two-year contract that includes an hourly pay increase and increase longevity pay benefits.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1175486/police-officers-approve-new-contract-with-city.html

On May 21, 2018 rank-and-file Albuquerque police officers overwhelmingly approved by a 501 to 40 vote a new two-year contract that will give police officers $12.1 million more in pay.

UNION BACKHANDED SWIPES

In announcing the new 2-year contract with the police union, Mayor Tim Keller said:

“This agreement gets us one step closer to addressing the public safety challenges our city is facing head on. … We were at a competitive disadvantage with our neighboring cities for recruitment efforts. These compensation adjustments will level the playing field so we can attract and retain qualified officers.”

In characteristic style, the police union when announcing approval of the contract by rank and file took a back handed swipe at the city administration.

The police union said the downside to the contract is that it is a two-year deal.

The police union claimed it wanted a one-year contract because many officers “don’t trust the city to keep its word on a multi-year deal.”

https://www.abqreport.com/single-post/2018/05/22/Cops-Approve-Two-Year-121-million-contract

Why should the city trust the police union when it consistently criticizes any administration in office and has opposed many policy changes mandated by the Department of Justice consent decree?

It should not be forgotten that six days after Mayor Keller was sworn into office, it was the police union president that claimed the Mayor was “dishonorable” when the Mayor “apologized for a group of police officers”.

The union president claimed that the rank and file felt “discredited” by the Mayor when he gave an apology to the citizens of Albuquerque for APD’s history of excessive use of force and deadly force that bought the Department of Justice to find a “culture of aggression”.

The police union gave no credit to the six-month-old Keller Administration for the negotiated pay increases and a major change in attitude towards all the city unions.

The previous Republican administration for the past eight years had been at repeated impasse and unable to negotiate contracts with virtually all city unions, especially the fire and police unions and those impasses resulted in litigation.

Within weeks after taking office, the Keller Administration negotiated and approved an $8 million settlement with the Albuquerque Firefighter’s Union, ending a pay raise dispute that dated backs to 2011 with the previous Republican Administration.

APPROVED HOURLY PAY RATES

The approved contract provides that the pay rate for officers with zero to four years of experience will go from $28 to $29 an hour.

Under the contract, officers with 4 to 14 years of experience will be paid $30 an hour.

The new contract will also raise the pay of more senior officers to between $30 to $31.50 an hour.

Officers with 15 years of more will be paid $31.50 an hour.

The rate for sergeants will go from $32 to $35 an hour, and lieutenants pay will go up from $36.70 to $40.00 an hour.

LONGEVITY PAY INCREASES

Longevity pay increases of between $2,600 to $13,000 a year will take effect August 1, 2018 and longevity pay will also increase in the contract’s second year.

The new contract calls for officers next year to start collecting longevity pay bonuses based on their years of experience.

Starting when an officer has five years of experience, the longevity bonuses will range from $100 to $600 every pay period.

The approved longevity pay scale effective August 1, 2018 for the 2018-2019 fiscal year is as follows:

For 5 to 9 years of experience: $100 will be paid bi-weekly, or $2,600 yearly
For 10 to 14 years of experience: $150 will be paid bi-weekly, or $3,900 yearly
For 15 to 17 years of experience: $200 will be paid bi-weekly, or $5,200 yearly
For 1 to 19 years of experience: $300 will be paid bi-weekly, or $7,800 yearly
For 10 to 20 years or more: $500 will be paid bi-weekly, or $13,000 yearly

The approved longevity pay scale effective the first full pay period following July 1, 2019, and that will replace the 2018-2019 is as follows:

For 5 years of experience: $100 will be paid bi-weekly, or $2,600 yearly
For 6 years of experience: $125 will be paid bi-weekly, or $3,250 yearly
For 7 to 9 years of experience: $225 will be paid bi-weekly, or $5,800 yearly
For 10 to 12 years of experience: $300 will be paid bi-weekly, or $7,800 yearly
For 13 to 15 years o experience: $350 will be paid bi-weekly, or $9,100 yearly
For 16 to 17 years or more: $450 will be paid bi-weekly, or $11,700 yearly
For 18 or more years of experience: $600 will be paid bi-weekly, 15,600 yearly

NO PANACEA

The police union got into the act and parroted Mayor Keller when it said the pay increases and longevity pay will go a long way to help recruit experienced officers from around the country and make the city more competitive.

The increases in hourly wages and longevity pay are in no way a panacea for APD recruiting a new generation of police officers fully trained in constitutional policing practices.

The Keller Administration is proposing to spend $88 million dollars, over a four-year period, with 32 million dollars of recurring expenditures, to hire 322 sworn officers and expand APD from 878 sworn police officers to 1,200 officers.

For the first fiscal year of the four-year plan, the 2018-2019 approved budget provides for increasing funding from 1,000 sworn police to 1,040, which is not much of an increase.

Notwithstanding the existing funding for 1,000 sworn police, APD at the beginning of 2018 had only 878 sworn police.

If the past 8-year history with the APD Academy is any reflection of what will happen, the APD Academy will be lucky to hire and train enough cadets just to keep up with retirements.

In order to increase APD from the current 878 sworn police to 1,040 sworn by this time next year, the APD Police Academy will need to keep up with expected retirements and will have to hire at least 162 new officers either as new recruits or as lateral hires.

Based on APD Academy past performance over the 8 few years, the Police Academy will not meet the goal of recruiting and hiring 162 police officers.

APD is having significant problems filling unfilled positions and difficulty in growing the department even with APD offering a $5,000 sign-on bonus for new hires.

FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO FAILED RECRUITMENT EFFORTS

The APD Police Academy is unable to keep up with retirement losses.

For a number of years, graduating classes have averaged 35 to 40 a class, well below the number to keep up with yearly retirements.

Recruiting a younger, new generation of sworn police officers and growing the size of the police department has become very difficult and unachievable.

The number of APD sworn officers has fallen from 1,100 officers to 878 over the past eight years for any number of reasons including:

1. Extreme low morale resulting in experienced officers deciding to retire sooner than later or going to other law enforcement agencies.
2. Changes in the Public Employee Retirement Association benefits
3. Failed APD management by the previous administration
4. Poor Working conditions as a result of heavy workloads and caseloads
5. Intense scrutiny by the Department of Justice resulting in the DOJ consent decree.
6. Terminations and disciplinary actions
7. Inability to attract “lateral” transfers from other departments

APD’s poor and negative national reputation and Albuquerque’s high violent crime rates are also not conducive to attracting people who want to begin a long-term career in law enforcement in Albuquerque.

The DOJ oversight requirements and the increased dangers in being a police officer in a violent city such as Albuquerque has also had an impact on recruitment.

The overwhelming number of police academy applicants fail to get into the academy for any number of reasons including:

1. Failing to meet minimum education and entry qualifications
2. Unable to pass criminal background checks
3. Unable to make it through psychological background analysis
4. Failing the polygraph tests
5. Lying on the on the applications or failing a credit check.

Once in the police academy, many cadets are unable to meet minimum physical requirements or unable to handle the training and academic requirements to graduate from the academy.

CONCLUSION

There is no doubt that it will take years to grow the department to the 1,200-level desired to return to community-based policing.

Growing the department will take more than increasing hourly pay and longevity pay to make APD more attractive to come and join to begin a 25-year career.

Growing the department will take time, major changes in management a major financial investment for recruitment and compliance with the DOJ consent decree reforms.

Until then, the Police Union’s motto will always be “What’s in your wallet?”

On December 1, 2017 Republican Governor Susana Martinez appointed Republican Bernalillo County Commissioner Wayne Johnson as the New Mexico State Auditor to replace Democrat Tim Keller who was elected Mayor of Albuquerque.

Wayne Johnson ran unsuccessfully for Mayor of Albuquerque, came in fifth and did not make the run off against Tim Keller.

Wayne Johnson, who is now running for election to keep his job as State Auditor, has announced his office will do a “special audit” to look into possible “gaps” within the Second Judicial District in an effort to combat crime in the Albuquerque metro area.

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/state-auditor-wayne-johnson-albuquerque-criminal-justice-system-audit/4920020/?cat=500

Johnson got exactly what he really wanted which was nothing more than media coverage and a front page headline in the Albuquerque Journal.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1175867/state-auditor-announces-plans-for-criminal-justice-review.htm

According to Johnson, his “special audit” focuses on seven state agencies: the District Court, Metro Court, the Albuquerque Police Department, the Bernalillo County Sheriff’s Office, the Metropolitan Detention Center, the Public Defender’s Office and the District Attorney’s Office.

In other words, the target of Johnson’s special audit is the entire Bernalillo County criminal justice system.

In announcing the audit, Johnson said:

“As auditors, we can look at each piece of the system and how those pieces mesh together. … We can help mend the cracks that lead to horrible crimes … When judges and prosecutors don’t have all the facts because the systems aren’t communicating, criminals … fall through the cracks. The consequences are devastating for people’s lives and for the City of Albuquerque as a whole. We can do better.”

According to his office, the district attorney pursued detention in 16 percent of all felony cases filed and indicted in 2017 but judges denied those requests about half the time.

Johnson argued that those released by judges then commit other crimes and he pointed to one suspect accused of raping a 57-year-old in her home after his release on auto burglary charges.

In response to Wayne Johnson’s call for the audit, the State District Court spokesperson Sidney Hill said:

“As a trusted and good steward of public resources, the (court) will continue to act in a financially and operationally responsible and prudent manner and will cooperatively work with the Office of the State Auditor. … The Court hopes this process will clear up the Auditor’s apparent misunderstanding of the criminal justice system, which is reflected in his use of statistics and scenarios we do not believe have a basis in fact.”

Wayne Johnson should do better understanding the duties, responsibilities and functions of his office.

FUNCTIONS OF STATE AUDITORS DEPARTMENT

What is so very disappointing and typical is no one in the media challenged or questioned if Johnson has the authority or is empowered by law to do his audit that is not financial dealing with the expenditure of taxpayer money.

The New Mexico State Auditor is a statewide elected official that eligible to serve up to two four-year terms.

In accordance with the New Mexico Audit Act, §§ 12-6-1 to 12-6-14, NMSA 1978, the Office has two statutory purposes:

“(1) to ensure that the financial affairs of every agency shall be thoroughly examined and audited each year by the state auditor, personnel of the state auditor’s office designated by the state auditor or independent auditors approved by the state auditor
(2) cause the financial affairs and transactions of an agency to be audited in whole or in part. (Section 12-6-3, NMSA 1978.)”

These two statutory purposes grant the State Auditor the authority to conduct both financial and special financial audits to identify financial irregularities, waste, fraud and abuse by the government entities.

The Office of the State Auditor conducts and oversees audits of approximately 1,000 government entities, from large state agencies to small political subdivisions.

The authority of the office is to review the financial affairs of government agencies, including contracts, purchases agreements and make sure that the government agencies are not engaged in fraud, waste and abuse of government and taxpayer funds.

While the State Auditor performs mandatory audits each year of city, county and state agencies, due to the Office’s limited resources, a majority of the financial audits are conducted by independent public accounting firms (IPAs) whom partner with the Office.

The State Auditor requires the government agencies that are audited to foot the bill for the independent public auditing firms.

The State Auditor does not have any prosecutorial authority and when criminal wrong doing is found in an audit, it is turned over to the appropriate state or federal prosecuting agency.

JOHNSON CONTINUES TO VILIFY CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM

When Wayne Johnson ran for Mayor last year, his speeches and commercials took to a whole new level pandering to upset voters and to appeal to their worst fears to get votes, especially when he said he would end Albuquerque’s sanctuary city status.

His efforts as a Bernalillo County Commissioner to end the county’s immigrant sanctuary status failed miserably.

The most disturbing part of Mr. Johnsons candidacy for Mayor was his intentional promotion of ignorance of our criminal justice system, our constitutional rights of due process of law and the presumption of innocence.

Going after and complaining about elected judges for their rulings is a red flag of ignorance of our criminal justice system unless it is just plain pandering to appeal to people’s worst fears to get votes or even worse, lying to the public.

Attacking our Judicial system and judge’s rulings is a familiar tactic of President Donald Trump and is a lesson learned by Johnson to “gin up” his conservative base in Albuquerque.

Johnson has now gotten the bright and very mistaken idea that he has the authority to audit and entire criminal justice system, especially judge’s decisions to deny prosecutor’s efforts to detain people in jail pending trial.

It is so easy to ignore our U. S. Constitution when you are pandering and running for Mayor and for that matter running for State Auditor and essentially say “catch them and lock them up and throw away the key”.

It is an abuse of office and authority for any elected official to undertake functions of an office that are not in fact authorized by law.

Wayne Johnson needs to read and fully understand the state laws that outline and limit his authority as State Auditor.

Conducting an auditing of a criminal justice system process that is not financial in nature is not within his powers and authority as State Auditor and a clear abuse of power.

What is so diguusting is that Johnson will require all seven government agencies to foot the bill for the audits, that will likely cost thousands per agency, when virtually all of those agencies are cash strapped as it is.

CONCLUSION

Johnson hopes his audit of the Second Judicial District will help identify problems that negatively impact the criminal justice system.

The New Mexico State Auditor’s Office has its plate full as it is performing over 1,000 audits a year, but now Wayne Johnson wants his office to perform an audit that is not financial and more political in nature.

No doubt Wayne Johnson is really hoping the audit will help him get elected State Auditor in November.

Attorney General Hector Balderas, a former State Auditor himself, should consider writing a letter of instruction to State Auditor Wayne Johnson telling him to cease and desist with his audit of the Second Judicial District and explain to him it is not appropriate nor authorized by law.

Another option would be for Attorney General Hector Balderas to open an investigation of his own of State Auditor Wayne Johnson for abuse of authority and discretion of his office.

On May 21, 2018 the Albuquerque City Council unanimously approved the 2018- 2019 operating budget of $577 million in general fund appropriations.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1175154/city-council-adds-almost-1m-for-childrens-programs-to-budget.html

The general fund budget goes to fund essential services, including the police and fire departments.

When you include the city’s enterprise funds, which are standalone departments funds such as the Aviation Department and Solid Waste Department financed by revenues generated from fees charged, the total Albuquerque city budget approaches the $1 billion-dollar figure.

The 2018-2019 fiscal year begins July 1, 2018 and ends June 30, 2019.

On March 5, 2018, in anticipation of the budget being adopted, the Albuquerque City Council voted to raise the city’s gross receipts tax rate by three-eighths to deal with a projected $40 million-dollar deficit.

Without the tax increase, the budget deficit of $40 million could have only been resolved by severe budget cuts, including layoffs, furloughs and reduction or elimination of essential services.

The enacted budget contains a significant increase in spending for “public safety” and social service programs cut so drastically by the prior Republican Administration.

ENACTED BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS

Public safety spending highlights of the enacted general fund budget are as follows:

*$2 million for recruiting new APD officers for the next fiscal year.

COMMENTARY:

This allocation is the beginning of the Keller administration proposed APD expansion plan. The Keller administration is proposing to spend $88 million dollars, over a four-year period, with 32 million dollars of recurring expenditures to hire 350 officers and expand APD from 878 sworn police officers to 1,200 officers by implementing a hiring and recruitment program to offer incentives, pay raises and bonuses to join or return to APD in order to return to community-based policing.

*$2.3 million for compliance with the Court Agreed To Settlement Agreement (CASA) reached between the city and the Department of Justice in November, 2014 regarding police use of excessive force and deadly use of force.

COMMENTARY:

This is an appropriation that in no way can be considered voluntary but is mandatory under the federal APD consent decree. The taxpayers first paid $1 million to hire “experts” to negotiate the consent decree, then paid $4 million for the Federal Monitor and another $2.5 million of the required training mandated, all the while the command staff for 3 years resisted the reform effort. It is anticipated the reform process will take at least another three years to implement and in all likely another $4 million.

*$1.9 million to address a backlog of more than 4,000 untested rape kits.

COMMENTARY:

The rape kit backlog was identified by Keller when he was the New Mexico State Auditor. $1.5 million will be outsourced and $383,000 will be used to hire four (4) positions at the APD crime lab which will include one (1) DNA forensic scientist, two (2) latent forensic scientists, and one (1) latent technician. It is critical that the backlog of rape kits be processed for felony prosecutions. All too often, DNA evidence and a victim’s testimony are the only evidence available to obtain a conviction for rape and child sexual abuse.

*$1.8 million for the Property Crime Reduction program.

COMMENTARY:

The “Property Crime Reduction” program is intended to address the city’s rising property crime rates, especially auto thefts. In February, 2017, FBI statistics revealed property crimes in Albuquerque increased by 13.3 percent, bucking the national trend of decreases in burglaries and larcenies. Albuquerque reported 38,528 property crimes, or 6,860 per 100,000, and 6,236 total burglaries, or 1,110 per 100,000 residents. Auto thefts in the Albuquerque jumped by the highest percentage with 7,710 motor vehicle thefts reported in 2016, an almost 50 percent increase over the year before.

$114,000 for mobile cameras for parks security.

$100,000 for contractual parks security.

SAFE CITY STRIKE FORCE

The following appropriations were approved by the City Council in an effort to reinstate the viability of the Safe City Strike Force:

$ 1.5 million in additional public safety spending was added by the city council including $125,000 for Safe City Strike Force code enforcement specialists.

$300,000 in additional funding for Safe City Strike Force board-ups and demolitions

$75,000 to begin land banking for vacant and abandoned buildings.

COMMENTARY:

The above $1.87 in appropriations is a commitment to reinstate a program that was dismantled by the previous administration. From 2002 to 2009, the Safe City Strike Force was formed to combat blighted commercial and residential properties. Thirty (30) to forty-five (40) representatives from the Albuquerque Police Department, the Albuquerque Fire Department, the Fire Marshal’s Office, the Planning Department Code residential and commercial code inspectors, Family Community Services and the Bernalillo County District Attorney’s Office participated comprised the strike force. In 2010, the previous administration in essence began to dismantled and reduce funding for the Safe City Strike Force. In 2018, the Safe City Strike Force has one employee, its director, and the Safe City Strike Force exists in name only. The $300,000 for board ups of blighted properties is a good start, but significantly more will be needed to address the approximate 3,000 substandard properties throughout Albuquerque. For the past eight (8) years, little or next to nothing was done by the City of Albuquerque to address blighted and substandard commercial and residential properties.

YOUTH PROGRAMS

Albuquerque city councilors approved a $1 million budget amendment for children’s programs.

The budget amendment includes funding for a middle school soccer league, after-school clubs and at-risk youth summer hires through the Family and Community Services Department
New programs through the Cultural Services and the Parks and Recreation departments have also been funded. The city’s goal is to double the participation in before-school and after-school and summer programs for children.

COMMENTARY:

Youth programs are absolutely essential to giving a much needed helping hand to our at-risk youth. “At risk youth” all too often find themselves in harm’s way, are “latch key” children who return to an empty home after school because their single parent is working or the child turns to the streets or turns to gangs to escape their home environments or turn to committing crimes and wind up in our juvenile justice system.

SOCIAL SERVICES FUNDING INCREASED

Highlights to the increases in social services by the city include:

*$15 million in affordable housing contracts.

*$8.2 million in homeless services.

*$5.7 million in mental health and substance abuse contracts.

* $18.2 million for homeless and behavioral health programs.

COMMENTARY: Prior to the enactment of the gross receipts tax increase, these programs were originally projected to be cut by $2 million.

*$225,000 for Heading Home vouchers.

COMMENTARY: The “There’s Better Way” program is the program employs homeless people to do hourly work. There are approximately 3,000 homeless in the city at any given time.

COMMENTARY:

A welcomed and dramatic departure from the previous Republican Administration are the amounts and resources the Mayor requested and the City Council appropriated toward behavioral and mental health programs, drug addiction initiatives and programs for the homeless.

CONCLUSION

Review of the entire enacted city budget for fiscal year 2018-2019 reflects a clear and dramatic reflection of major changes in attitudes and priorities from the previous Republican administration.

The previous attitude of the Republican Administration for a full eight years emphasized a reduction in social services, reduction in essential services especially, acceptance of failure in public safety, reducing the size of government and opposition to any and all tax increases regardless of any and all need or justification for a tax increase.

The Keller Administration inherited a $40 million-dollar deficit and the first Keller budget fills the debt hole but was able to do so only after the City Council enacted a tax increase.

It is no surprise to many city hall observers that the Keller budget Approved by the city council for the new fiscal year contains the largest increase in city hall spending in 10 years.

The spending reflected by the adopted budget is desperately needed to turn the city around in a new direction, especially when it comes to public safety and reducing the cities out of control crime rates.

The city council adopted 2018-2019 city budget is where “the rubber hits the road” and is only the very first step with determining if Keller will be a successful Mayor.