Mayor Tim Keller and Interim Chief Geier announced at a press conference that they have ordered a formal internal affairs investigation into the Albuquerque Police Department’s encounters with relatives and teachers of a 7-year-old girl who prosecutors say was abused and trafficked.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1177857/apd-launches-internal-affairs-probe-of-child-sex-trafficking-case.html

The press conference was also used to announce a review of policies and procedures of APD when dealing with child sexual and physical abuse victims.

Keller’s appointed Chief Administrative Officer Sarita Nair said at the press conference:

“We have sort of two different issues going on in this case. … One is whether specific people followed specific policies. And then the other is whether those policies are in fact designed to move investigations the way that they should be moved. And if those policies are too broad or too narrow to really accomplish the goal of protecting kids.”

During the press conference, Mayor Tim Keller made the stunning admission that he and Chief Geier were not initially given the full story of the police department’s handling of the case when he said:

“This administration will admit to mistakes that it makes. … We will admit we must improve, and we are now drawing a line in the sand and saying that the weaknesses in the system that let our kids down are not acceptable anymore” and said the Internal Affairs investigation will produce a report detailing “the handling or mishandling of this case.”

Elaborating on Mayor Keller’s comments, Interim Chief Geier said “things just didn’t sit right” and so “we started digging.”

For his part, Chief Geier said “This is not the old APD, we are not going to sweep this under the rug. We’re gonna embrace change.”

Mayor Tim Kellers’ bold pronouncement of “drawing a line in the sand” and Chief Geier saying “we started digging” was a stunning admission that both Mayor Keller he and Interim Chief Geier had their heads in the sand for the past few weeks defending the actions of APD.

The Internal Affairs investigation is to provide Mayor Keller and Chief Geier with the complete details and the steps taken or missed by officers and detectives during interviews with family and school personnel.

The Internal Affairs investigation will also explore any other actions by APD personnel who had a role, or should have had a role, before a determination was made about allegations of child neglect or abuse.

A 180 DEGREE REVERSAL BY MAYOR AND CHIEF

The truth is a major management mistake by Mayor Tim Keller and Interim Chief Michael Geier occurred when they both defended APD in the evidence gathering in a child abuse case where the blood-stained underwear of a seven-year-old child was collected by the child’s teacher.

The scrutiny of the case and the defense of APD by the Mayor Keller and Chief Geier came after a three-day detention hearing of the child’s parents.

Apparently, Mayor Keller and Chief Geier do not watch or listen to the news because the detention hearing of the parents was covered intensely by the media.

The boyfriend of the child’s mother is charged with human trafficking, promoting prostitution, criminal sexual contact of a minor and other crimes.

The mother is charged with child abuse and contributing to the delinquency of a minor.

A teacher testified in court under oath that she attempted to give the underwear to an APD officer who then refused to take the underwear and tag it into evidence for forensic evaluation and tossed the evidence in the trash.

What is regrettable is that this should not have happened given that the events occurred last year before Keller and Gier both assumed office, yet they both defended APD’s actions.

Both Mayor Keller and the Interim Chief Geier initially said no one with APD violated any policies or procedures even when an APD officer tossed out the evidence.

Both Keller and Geier then doubled down and said that officers and detectives did everything they could with the information they had at the time, which again was last year before they were in charge.

After Keller and Geier doubled down, it was reported that when two APD officers and two detectives with APD’s Crimes Against Children Unit looked into an allegation that the 7 year old child had blood on her underwear someone from APD in fact accessed the states Children Youth and Families law enforcement portal.

(May 29, 2018 Albuquerque Journal, front page, “APD likely aware of CYFD contacts with girl; Chief earlier said officers might have acted differently if they’d known the history)

It turns out that the past director of the Real Time Crime Center last year issued a directive to APD staff operators to look at a child’s contacts with CYFD sending out a procedural order laying out the center’s access to the CYFD’s law enforcement portal.

According to the city interoffice memorandum, APD Real Time Center operators were ordered to use the portal in all cases in which a juvenile has been injured or neglected, there is a history of violence and in “all cases where a juvenile call originated from a school.”

In other words, APD was aware or should have been aware of the family’s lengthy history with the Children, Youth and Families Department when and APD officer and a CYFD investigator met with the child’s teacher at the girl’s school.

On Friday, May 25, 2018, and only after intense media coverage, Mayor Keller and Interim Chief Geier ordered the Internal Affairs investigation to provide a more complete accounting of the department’s interactions related to a November 2017 incident involving the parents of the child.

INEPT MANAGERMENT REVEALED

It was inept management and a failed oversight mistake for the Chief and the Mayor not order the Internal Affairs Investigation in the first place seeing as the events occurred last year, before they took office and something they could not do anything about other than get to the truth about what actually happened.

Mayor Keller and Chief Geier defending the actions of APD they knew absolutely nothing about, even after courtroom testimony of the teacher, speaks volumes of their management ineptness and worse their reluctance to hold APD accountable.

Keller’s mistake in this case can be understood given his lack of understanding of law enforcement procedures and ignorance of the law of evidence.

However, Interim Chief Geier should have known better given his 40+ years as a cop and given his reluctance to act.

What happened is evidence that nothing has changed with APD management practices of the past despite Geier’s denial to the contrary and his pronouncement.

CONCLUSION

Mayor Tim Keller should have learned a valuable lesson the hard way from this mishap: not to presume and believe everything you are told to be true by law enforcement, a lesson many juries learn quickly only after all the evidence is gather and presented to them in a trial and court of law.

Hopefully Keller and Geier can learn from their mistakes in handling a public relations nightmare of their own creation.

In the meantime, both Mayor Keller and Chief Geier need to wash the sand out of their hair.

In withdrawing from the First Congressional District race and endorsing Debra Haaland in the Democratic primary, City Councilor Pat Davis said:

“Out-of-state SuperPACs have already spent a half-million dollars to attack and divide progressives and help a conservative Democrat like Damon Martinez win on Election Day. I respect Damon Martinez’s service, and I’ve known him for years — but his failure to listen to our residents and hold police accountable, and his selective targeting and prosecution of poor, addicted black and brown residents of my own city council district should give us all pause.”

What should give voters pause in his city council district is what a hypocrite Pat Davis is with his words and actions.

No one should respect Pat Davis, especially when he calls Damon Martinez a “conservative Democrat” accusing Martinez of dividing progressives and saying Martinez has failed to listen to “our residents and hold police accountable”.

Pat Davis is an opportunist with his words and his actions.

DAVIS DIVIDED PROGRESSIVES

Lest anyone forget, Pat Davis was the Executive Director of “Progress Now” since its inception before he decided to run for City Council and then Congress.

As Director of Progress Now, Pat Davis was known to support and promote the candidacies of progressive Democrats of his own choosing, at the expense of and to the detriment of other progressive Democrats or Democrats he did not feel were “progressive enough”.

Pat Davis is cut out of the same mold as Bernie Sanders supporters who could not support Hillary Clinton after she won the nomination saying she was not a “progressive” or “progressive enough”.

Pat Davis has always made sure he has done everything he could behind the scenes to help his chosen progressive candidate such as Bernalillo County District Attorney Raul Torrez and Mayor Tim Keller when they were running for office.

DAVIS ACTED AND VOTED LIKE A REPUBLICAN

During his tenure on the Albuquerque City Council, Davis has voted, acted and has sounded like a Republican, which makes him a hypocrite.

It is Davis who refused to listen to his own constituents.

Davis voted repeatedly for and supported Republican Mayor Berry’s ART Bus project and funding.

Davis refused to advocate to put ART on the ballot for public approval, telling his constituents at a forum that there was nothing he could do and it was the Mayor’s project.

The ART Bus project has been a total disaster resulting the destruction of the character of Route 66 and having a negative impact and resulting in several businesses going out of business.

A few Nob Hill businesses, including many progressives, at one time advocated a recall of his election because of his support for ART.

DAVIS REFUSED TO HOLD APD ACCOUNTABLE

The biggest hypocrisy Davis committed with his endorsement of Debora Haaland was when he said Martinez failed to hold police accountable.

It was Pat Davis for the past two years that failed to hold APD accountable.

The Albuquerque City Council plays a crucial oversight role of the Albuquerque Police Department (APD) including controlling its budget.

Davis did nothing regarding Albuquerque Police Department (APD) reforms and never challenged the APD command staff in any meaningful way demanding compliance with the Department of Justice (DOJ) consent decree reforms.

Each time the Federal Monitor has presented his critical reports of APD to the City Council, Davis kept his mouth shut and declined to demand accountability from the Republican Mayor and hold the APD command staff responsible for dragging their feet on the reforms.

Davis failed to attend any of the federal court hearings on the consent decree.

It was Damon Martinez who was United State Attorney for New Mexico when the Court Approved Settlement Agreement (CASA) was negotiated after a culture of aggression was found within APD.

Damon Martinez was at the forefront in negotiating and changing APD policies on “use of force” and “deadly force” policies of APD.

The accusation that Damon Martinez engaged in “selective targeting and prosecution of poor, addicted black and brown residents of my own city council district” is nothing more than a lie by Pat Davis.

Davis made the accusation of “selective targeting” during a recent congressional debate.

Davis, as a former cop and former spokesman for the Bernalillo County District Attorney’s Office, knows full well the power to prosecute the overwhelming number of crimes in the city is the almost exclusive authority of the District Attorney.

Davis use of the words “prosecution of poor, addicted black and brown residents” is nothing more than accusing someone of racism.

CONCLUSION

Pat Davis has now ended his long shot candidacy for Congress.

True to his nature, Pat Davis endorsement of Debra Haaland is opportunistic thinking it will have some effect on voters.

This is one endorsement Debra Haaland would have been better off declining.

Pat Davis is up for re election next year to the Albuquerque City Council and it will be interesting to see if he runs again after this disastrous showing in the Congressional race.

City Council is non partisan, so Pat Davis does not have to say if he is a Democrat or Republican.

It is being reported that when two APD officers and two detectives with APD’s Crimes Against Children Unit looked into an allegation that a 7 year old child had blood on her underwear someone from APD in fact accessed the states Children Youth and Families law enforcement portal.

(May 29, 2018 Albuquerque Journal, front page, “APD likely aware of CYFD contacts with girl; Chief earlier said officers might have acted differently if they’d known the history)

The entire Albuquerque Journal report can be read here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/1177634/apd-was-likely-aware-of-cyfd-contacts-in-case.html

According to the Journal report, last year on May 16, 2017, the then-director of the Real Time Crime Center issued a directive to APD staff operators to look at a child’s contacts with CYFD sending out a procedural order laying out the center’s access to the CYFD’s law enforcement portal.

According to the city interoffice memorandum, APD Real Time Center operators were ordered to use the portal in all cases in which a juvenile has been injured or neglected, there is a history of violence and in “all cases where a juvenile call originated from a school.”

In other words, APD was aware or should have been aware of the family’s lengthy history with the Children, Youth and Families Department when an APD officer and a CYFD investigator met with the child’s teacher at the girl’s school.

TESTIMONY OF FAILURE BY APD

During a three-day detention hearing for the child’s parents being held in custody on charges of sex trafficking, the child’s teacher testified under oath that she told an APD officer and the CYFD Investigator the child went to school unkempt and smelling of urine, evidence of child neglect.

When the teacher testified she helped the child change into clean clothes, the teacher saw the child had blood on the crotch of her underwear.

The teacher removed the underwear from the 7-year-old student and saved it for investigators.

The teacher testified when a police officer went to the school the following day, the APD officer said they could not use the underwear as evidence and threw the clothing in the dumpster.

The teacher testified she was told by the officer that the underwear had not been kept in a secure location and that the police office said “they’re going to have a field day if this ever went to court.”

A PUBLIC RELATIONS NIGHTMARE DEFENSE

Mayor Keller and Interim Chief Geier both bent over backwards to repeatedly say to news media outlets that no one with APD violated any policies or procedures investigating the case.

Both Mayor Keller and the Interim Chief Geier also said that no one violated any policies or procedures, including when an APD officer tossed out the blood-stained underwear of an innocent 7-year-old child rather than tagging it into evidence.

Geier repeatedly said that the blood-stained underwear by itself was not a strong enough reason to cause further investigation beyond what the officer did that day.

Mayor Tim Keller said “Based on information they had at the time we have no reason to believe protocol wasn’t followed and procedure wasn’t followed.”

https://www.abqjournal.com/1172987/mayor-apd-defend-officer-say-underwear-not-enough-to-warrant-crime-investigation.html

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/albuquerque-police-apd-child-abuse-case-james-stewart-teri-sanchez/4911125/?cat=500

Mayor Keller even went so far as to say that he was not going to discipline someone just because everyone is mad about what happened in the case.

APD Interim Chief Michael Geier has also told media outlets that officers and detectives did everything they could with the information they had at the time and if they knew more, they would have done things differently.

The report APD in fact accessed the states Children Youth and Families law enforcement portal is evidence that APD did not do everything they could have with the information they had at the time.

INTERNAL AFFAIRS INVESTIGATION LAUNCHED

It was learned that on Friday, May 25, 2018, after continued media coverage and inquiries, APD launched an Internal Affairs investigation to provide a more complete accounting of the department’s interactions related to the November 2017 incident involving the parents of the child.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1177857/apd-launches-internal-affairs-probe-of-child-sex-trafficking-case.html

The Internal Affairs Investigation was not announced until Tuesday, May 25, 2018 with a follow up press conference.

The Internal Affairs investigation is to provide Mayor Keller and Chief Geier with the complete details and the steps taken or missed by officers and detectives during interviews with family and school personnel.

The Internal Affairs investigation will also explore any other actions by APD personnel who had a role, or should have had a role, before a determination was made about allegations of child neglect or abuse.

The big question is, why did the Chief nor the Mayor nor order the Internal Affairs Investigation in the first place seeing is that the events occurred last year and before they took office on December 1, 2018?

REPEAT OF HISTORY

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” to quote George Santayana.

In response to the controversy, the original response was for Mayor Tim Keller to issue directives to APD to undertake steps to review child abuse cases for patterns that raise red flags, reach out to other law enforcement agencies, prosecutors, the courts, CYFD and child advocates to coordinate crimes against children cases and evaluate policies on evidence collection.

Keller’s defense of APD and Chief Geier is identical to what former Mayor Berry did with former APD Chief Gorden Eden and APD.

Why does Mayor Keller’s directives also sound all too familiar?

The blunt truth is that Mayor Tim Keller took the typical public relations approach by demanding a review of policies and procedures and vowing to hold people accountable for their inaction or incompetence if that is what happened in this case.

All too often after horrific crimes against a child happen, elected officials express outrage and quickly announce proposed changes in the law, increasing penalties, often including reinstating the death penalty for heinous crimes against children, or order review of policies and procedures, which is exactly what happened in the Victoria Martens case and Maree Varela case.

In 2014, 9-year-old Omaree Varela was found beaten to death months after placing a desperate 911 call to APD.

The autopsy report said Omaree had lost about 25 percent of his blood volume through internal bleeding.

On August 24, 2016, in one of the most brutal murders seen in Albuquerque’s history, APD found the dead body of ten-year-old Victoria Martens in an Albuquerque apartment.

Victoria Martens had been beaten, drug, raped, dismembered and then burned.

It was later reported that APD had received prior referrals from CYFD to investigate.

APD spokesperson said that APD had interviewed Victoria Martens and her mother had been conducted which was a lie in that APD never interviewed of the 10 year old nor her mother.

COMMENTARY

This city has seen and heard all this before from elected officials, mayors included, yet the heinous crimes continue.

All too often people do not hear, or for that matter do not want to hear or even care about the horrific details of crimes against children.

Ultimately, nothing happens and no one is held accountable.

APD, all police officers and the command staff need to fully commit without any reservation whatsoever to fulfill their motto of “to serve and protect”, especially when it comes to our children, otherwise the motto is meaningless.

Every effort must be made by APD to protect our children.

Law enforcement must ensure swift justice is bought upon those who do harm to our innocent children.

There must be severe ramifications and people must be held accountable, including APD personnel and CYFD personnel, for the shoddy investigation such as what happened with a child and the denial by an APD officer to accept evidence and tag it and ask for a forensic evaluation.

Our children’s lives depend upon it.

On this Memorial Day, I am compelled to pay tribute to members of my family who have given so much and sacrificed so much to protect our freedoms and to protect this great country of ours.

All were born and lived in New Mexico, two were born in Chacon, New Mexico and the rest raised and educated in Albuquerque.

One gave the ultimate sacrifice during time of war.

My father Paul Dinelli and my Uncle Pete Dinelli, for whom I was named after, both served in the US Army during World War II when the United States went to war with Italy, Germany and Japan.

I am compelled to point out that the United State was at war with Italy during World War II.

My father and uncle were first generation born Americans and the sons of Italian immigrants who settled in Albuquerque in the year 1900 to live the American dream.

My Uncle Pete Dinelli was killed in action when he stepped on a land mine.

My father Paul Dinelli was a disabled American Veteran when he returned to Albuquerque after World War II.

My uncles Fred Fresques and Alex Fresques, my mother’s two brothers, also saw extensive combat in World War II.

My Uncle Alex Freques served in England and was in the Air Force.

My uncle Fred Freques saw extensive action in the US Army infantry to the point that he refused to talk about what he saw to to anyone. After the war, my Uncle Fred returned to Albuquerque and raised a family in Barelas where over the years he was active in the “Golden Gloves” and the Barelas Community Center.

My father in law, George W. Case, who passed away just 3 years ago at age 93, served in the United States Navy during World War II and saw action while serving on a destroyer.

My father in law George Case was so proud of his service that he wore a World War II Veterans cap every day the last few years of his life.

After the war, my father in law George Case returned to Albuquerque was married to my mother in law for 50 years, raised a family of 4 girls.

George eventually owed a liquor store for a few years and then went on to build, own and operate the Old Town Car wash and was in the car wash industry for a number of years.

My nephew Dante Dinelli, was born and raised in Albuquerque and joined the service a few years after graduating from Cibola High School.

Dante served 20 + years in the US Navy, retired as a Chief Petty Officer and to this day still works in a civilian capacity for the Navy.

My two nephews, Matthew Barnes and Brandon Barnes, the sons of my younger sister, were born and raised in Albuquerque and went to Bosque Prep.

Both Mathew and Brandon are currently Captains in the United States Marine Corps and are climbing the promotion ladder in the Marine Corps.

My nephew Captain Brandon Barnes is a graduate of the US Naval Academy.

My nephew Captain Matthew Barnes graduated from UNM with honors and served a tour in Afghanistan.

To all the wonderful and courageous men and women who have served and continue to serve our country to protect and secure the promise of freedom and the ideals upon which the United States was founded upon, and to those who made the ultimate sacrifice, I thank you for your service to our Country.

Your service and sacrifices will never be forgotten.

God bless you all and God Bless this great country of ours!

The Albuquerque Journal has now released its first and long anticipated poll in the Democratic primary for New Mexico Governor.

The Albuquerque Journal poll is only poll taken and published by the newspaper

The biggest reason the Albuquerque Journal poll is so important is that it was released two weeks before the election.

You can read the full Albuquerque Journal article on the poll here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/1177219/journal-poll-big-lead-for-lujan-grisham-us-representative-has-almost-4to1-margin-over-closest-challenger.html

The results of the poll are as follows
Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Gisham: 57%
Las Cruces State Senator Joe Cervantes: 9%
Albuquerque Businessman Jeff Apodaca: 15%

UNDECIDED: 19%

The poll was conducted May 20-24 and was a statewide sample of 444 registered Democratic voters who cast ballots in the 2014 and/or 2016 primary elections.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

BREAKING DOWN THE NUMBERS

What is very impressive is that Lujan Grisham outpaced both Apodaca and Cervantes in virtually all parts of the state.

Congresswoman Lujan Grisham was especially strong in the Albuquerque area.

Lujan Grisham secured 65% of voters surveyed in Albuquerque compared to 10% for Apodaca and 9% for Cervantes.

Lujan Grisham’s support in Albuquerque is not surprising given that she represents the city in congress and she is a former Bernalillo County Commissioner and is very popular.

Cervantes is a State Senator from Las Cruces while Apodaca is originally from Las Cruces being the son of former Governor Jerry Apodaca who was a State Senator from Las Cruces.

Cervantes was strongest in Las Cruces and southwestern New Mexico where 19 percent of Democratic voters polled said they would support him.

According to the poll, male Democratic voters surveyed said they were twice as likely to vote for Apodaca than female voters.

20% of men survey said they would vote for Apodaca compared with 11 percent of women surveyed.

Not surprising, Apodaca had more support among Hispanic voters than among Anglo voters, but Lujan Grisham still held a sizable edge among both groups.

Both Cervantes and Apodaca have gone negative on Lujan Grisham in both debates and television ads, but it has had no effect on her popularity.

POLITICAL COMMENTARY

Brian Sanderoff and Research & Polling has an impressive 98% track record of accurately predicting political races in New Mexico for over 40 years.

Research and Polling conducts polls exclusively for the Albuquerque Journal and no longer does polling for political candidates.

Polls tend to become self-fulfilling prophecies and this one is a blowout.

When published two weeks in advance of any election, the polls have an enormous impact on a candidate’s viability and their ability to raise money.

The impact that the Journal poll will have on the governor’s race will be swift and immediate.

This is what you call a “political blowout” brewing in two weeks.

The poll will probably effectively end the candidacies of Joe Cervantes and Jeff Apodaca when it comes to fund raising.

The poll will add to the enormous and commanding lead Michelle Lujan Grisham has against both Apodaca and Cervantes.

The poll will increase her ability to raise and spend more campaign funds to counter punch the negative ads now being employed by her opponents.

CONCLUSION

After seeing the Albuquerque Journal poll, I have no doubt that both Cervantes and Apodaca had the political equivalent to being punched in the gut that is probably a knockout punch for both.

I have been there and done that four years ago.

When such polls such as this come out, it is more excruciating than anyone cares to admit.

Polls like this tend to be extremely discouraging to candidates and their supporters.

Such polls make it difficult to focus let alone carry on with a smile on your face.

Notwithstanding, Apodaca and Cervantes must and will carry on with their campaigns and need to be respected for their efforts.

I do not envy Republican nominee Steve Pearce, and his loss will probably be even bigger come November.

Loosing in a major landslide is no way to end a political career.

The Albuquerque Journal has now released its first and long anticipated poll in the First Congressional District being vacated by Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham.

The Journal poll is the fourth known poll taken over the last two months in the First Congressional race to replace Michelle Lujan Grisham who is running for Governor.

The main reason the Albuquerque Journal poll is so important is that it was released two weeks before the election.

You can read the full Albuquerque Journal article on the poll here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/1176833/martine-zhaaland-sedillo-lope-zin-tight-race.html

The 6 Democrats running for congress are:

Albuquerque City Councilor Pat Davis
Former Democratic Party Chair Debra Haaland
Former UNM Law School Associate Dean Antoinette Sedillo Lopez
Immigration and tax attorney Damian Lara
Former United States Attorney for the District of New Mexico Damon Martinez
Albuquerque businessman Paul Moya

The poll was conducted by Brian Sanderoff, President of Research and Polling.

Research and Polling has the most impressive track record of any New Mexico polling company with over 40 years of polling in New Mexico races.

Research and Polling has an impressive 98% track record of accurately predicting political races in New Mexico.

Research and Polling conducts polls exclusively for the Albuquerque Journal and no longer does polling for political candidates.

The Albuquerque Journal Poll conducted by Research and Polling was of 395 registered Democratic voters in the 1st Congressional District who cast ballots in the 2014 and/or 2016 Democratic primary elections and who said they were very likely to vote once again in this year’s June 5 primary election.

The poll has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points, making the race “too close” to call by pollsters

The Journal poll results are as follows:

Damon Martinez: 22%
Debra Haaland: 19%
Antoinette Sedillo Lopez: 17%
Pat Davis : 5%
Damian Lara: 4%
Paul Moya: 3%
UNDECIDED: 29%

What is surprising is that 29% of the voters are still undecided.

According to the Albuquerque Journal poll, with four Hispanics in the race, Damon Martinez is the clear favorite among Democratic Hispanics polling with 25% of those respondents vowing to support him at the ballot box.

Antoinette Sedillo Lopez polled at 19 percent among Hispanic respondents while Debra Haaland had just 9 percent support among Hispanics.

Across the country, more and more woman are running for elective offices and are winning, with New Mexico being no exception.

Both Antoinette Sedillo Lopez and Debra Haaland have emphasized greatly their gender and background in their candidacies, but the Journal Poll suggest they are splitting the female vote and that Damon Martinez also has significant female support and a lead with male voters.

According to the poll, Debra Haaland secured 21% of the females polled, Damon Martinez tied with 21%, and Antonette Sedillo Lopez secured 18% of the females polled.

Damon Martinez, Antoinette Sedillo Lopez and Debra Haaland are also splitting the male vote but Martinez has more male support than the two women.

Debra Haaland secured 16% of males polled, Antoinette Sedillo Lopez secured 16% of the males polled and Damon Martinez secured 24% of males polled, 8% above Haaland and Sedillo Lopez.

All three top tier candidates split and received the lions share of likely voters with respect to age groups and education.

The Journal poll when compared to three other polls that have been released clearly show that Damon Martinez has momentum that is going to be difficult to stop.

FIRST POLL TAKEN: THE PUBLIC POLICY POLL (PPP)

A poll was conducted the weekend of Friday, April 13, 2018 to Sunday, April 15, 2018 and consisted of contacting 508 registered democrats with the poll having a margin of error of 4.4%.

It was Pat Davis who commissioned the “auto-phone” opinion poll with Public Policy Poll (PPP) with the link to the full poll here:

https://www.scribd.com/document/377327356/New-Mexico-1-Results

The PPP poll results were as follows:

Debra Haaland: 15%
Antoinette Sedillo Lopez: 15%
Pat Davis : 11%
Damon Martinez: 7
Damian Lara: 4%
Paul Moya: 4%
UNDECIDED: 43%

SECOND POLL TAKEN: VOTEVETS POLL

A poll commissioned by VoteVets was conducted on May 13 and 14 by Lake Research in Washington, DC.

The organization that commissioned the poll is promoting Damon Martinez.

Notwithstanding who paid for the poll, it should be considered highly reliable.

The poll was of 390 “likely” Democratic voters and the poll used professional phone interviews as opposed to the “auto-phone” poll conducted by PPP and commissioned by Pat Davis.

Professional phone interview polls are considered more reliable and far more expensive than “robo-call” polls.

The poll showed an extremely tight race between three candidates with “undecided” voters still winning.

The margin of error for the poll was 5%.

The results of the VOTEVETS poll are as follows:

Antoinette Sedillo Lopez: 25%
Damon Martinez: 23%
Debra Haaland: 20%
Pat Davis : 5%
Damian Lara: 5%
Paul Moya: 5%
UNDECIDED: 27%

THIRD POLL TAKEN: JOE MONAHAN BLOG POLL

On Thursday, May 24, New Mexico Politics With Joe Monahan released a “robo call” poll showing Damon Martinez winning but calling the race too close to call.

The poll was taken of 305 likely Democratic voters in the 1st Congressional Disitrict.

The margin of error of the Monahan poll is 5.6% which is slightly higher than most polls which usually come in with 4% to 5% margins of error.

The results of Monahan Poll are as follows:

Damon Martinez: 27%
Antoinette Sedillo Lopez: 23%
Debra Haaland: 19%
Damian Lara: 5%
Paul Moya: 5%
Pat Davis : 4%
UNDECIDED: 19%

The fact that 19% of the voters were still undecided makes the race to close to call.

ALBUQUERQUE JOURNAL ENDORSEMENT

On May 22, 2018, the Albuquerque Journal did a solid and positive endorsement of Damon Martinez that could not have been any better, even though it made mention of Paul Moya.

The full Albuquerque Journal editorial can be read here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/1175043/journal-recommends-martine-zfor-cd1-democratic-primary.html

Progressives, especially Bernie Sander supporters, would say that the Albuquerque Journal endorsement is a kiss of death to them, but it is not when you have at least 4 progressives in the race with older, more conservative Democrats who still read the Albuquerque Journal and who still vote.

The Journal editorial gave a summary of Damon Martinez’s impressive record of public service, pointing out that he is an Albuquerque native who earned a bachelor’s degree, Master of Business Administration and law degree from the University of New Mexico, and served as New Mexico’s U.S. attorney from 2014 to 2017 until he was fired by Donald Trump and has been an officer in the U.S. Armed Forces for 15 years, enlisting after the September 11 attacks.

The Journal endorsement also said Martinez worked in Congress for former US Senator Jeff Bingaman and then former US Representative and now US Senator Tom Udall, serving as Bingaman’s legislative assistant and later as Udall’s legislative director and “for those reasons knows how the system works and would be able to hit the ground running if elected to Congress.”

Former US Senator Jeff Bingaman has also endorsed Damon Martinez and is helping him raise money and the endorsement should have a major impact on progressive democrats.

ATTACK ADS TO COMMENCE AGAINST DAMON MARTINEZ

There have been no negative attack commercials by the candidates, until now.

It has been reported by Joe Monahan that a $200,000 ad buy from an independent expenditure group affiliated with EMILY’s List has been made to attack Damon Martinez.

(NOTE: The EMILY’ List ad is available on YOUTUBE and can be seen here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dd_PXguKr74 )

EMILY’s List is a political action committee (PAC) that has the almost exclusive goal to help elect pro-choice Democratic female candidates to office.

The sinister sounding ad criticizes Damon Martinez for not prosecuting any Albuquerque Police Officer for 27 fatal police shootings.

The ad is very misleading in that such prosecutions are the job of the Bernalillo County County District Attorney, not the US Attorney, as was the case when the Bernalillo County District Attorney charged and tried two APD police officers for the killing of homeless camper James Boyd in the Sandia Foothills.

What is misleading is the failure to disclose that Damon Martinez as the United State Attorney for New Mexico was on the forefront and responsible for enforcement of the federal Court Approved Settlement Agreement (CASA) that mandates extensive reform of APD and changes to APD’s use of force and deadly force policies.

The EMILY’S List attack ads is seen as an effort to stop the momentum of Damon Martinez and increase the chances of Debra Haaland and Antoinette Sedillo Lopez.

The negative ad is to commence running on television this Tuesday, May 29, 2018.

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY ON THE CANDIDATES

It is clear comparing the four polls that the media expenditures by the three top candidates have had a major impact on the race.

The most recent Federal Election Commission campaign finance reports show that Debra Haaland led all six Democratic candidates with $836,709 in donations, Sedillo Lopez ranked second in the race for total contributions with $706,954 received and Damon Martinez was the third-highest money recipient, with $699,263.

Damon Martinez is one that has had the best return on his investment coming in from a distant 5th at first to now leading in the race with significant momentum that will no doubt continue unless he has a misstep.

Immigration and tax attorney Damian Lara reported raising $324,068 and is running TV ads that are impressive, but his candidacy has not caught on and the amount he has raised and spent has not made him competitive in the race.

http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00646612/1222300/

Albuquerque Businessman Paul Moya reported raising $191,539, he is running TV ads but his primary emphasis has been running a social media campaign running commercials on FACEBOOK to get his message out.

http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00660449/1222863/

Mr. Moya has been very impressive at forums and debates, but the impact of his social media campaign is unknown, does not show up in the polls, despite the considerable number of “views” on his FACEBOOK page which consistently run in the thousands.

Antoinette Sedillo Lopez had a minor setback to her campaign when it was reported out of the Journal Washington Bureau that she returned $2,750 in campaign donations given to her by seven attorneys who had cases pending in the Court of her husband, State District Judge Victor Lopez.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1176861/sedillo-lope-zreturns-2750-in-contributions.html

The Albuquerque Journal reported that Sedillo-Lopez has solicited donations from licensed attorneys and former students of hers at the UNM School of Law where she was a professor.

This should be considered a minor setback for Antoinette Sedillo Lopez for now but it has the potential of becoming a major setback and a black eye to her campaign if other such donations and solicitations are found and reported upon by the news media or any one of her opponents.

The one candidate that has had the biggest setback is Pat Davis.

Davis considered by many as the most progressive candidate in the race, he has high name recognition as a city councilor, but Davis has dropped in the polls, despite his use of vulgar language in a TV commercial to attack the National Rifle Association.

Davis’s embarrassing interview with conservative talk show host Tucker Carlson on FOX News about his use of vulgar language against the NRA and his understanding of automatic and semi automatic weapons did not help Pat Davis much.

The Carlson-Davis interview showed Davis is not at all ready for prime time in the United States Congress and calls into question his judgment for even appearing on FOX News.

The full Carlson-Davis interview, along with the Davis ad, can be seen at this YOUTUBE link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Zc785cM6As

All 4 polls seem to reflect that Debra Halaand and Antoinette Sedillo Lopez are splitting the more progressive and women’s vote and Damon Martinez is benefitting from that split.

Damon Martinez is considered a more traditional democrat, many progressives would say more conservative, than Debra Haaland and Antonette Sedillo Lopez despite the fact Damon Martinez has come out in favor of Medicare for all and banning of the manufacture of assault rifles.

CONCLUSION

Polls such as conducted by Research and Polling tend to become self-fulfilling prophecies.

Polls taken and published two weeks in advance of any election have an enormous impact on a candidate’s viability and their ability to raise money.

The impact that the Journal poll will have on the congressional race is to add to the momentum Damon Martinez has as well as increasing his ability to raise and spend more campaign funds.

There are still two weeks left before the primary, and with 29% still undecided, many are saying the race is too close to call.

However, in the world of politics, momentum is the single most important factor, especially two weeks before an election.

Two major questions that will need to be answered is if Damon Martinez will be able to raise enough money to offset or respond to the EMILY’S list attack ad and if the attack ads will benefit the two women in the race.

At this point in time, it is more likely than not that Damon Martinez will continue with his momentum and will be the Democratic nominee presuming he continues with his fundraising and spending and there are no missteps on his part.

However, two weeks in a congressional campaign is an eternity.